TheCrew07

Prospects And Draft Chat With Jim Callis Divisional mentions:

One of my favorite days of the year, the LR officially returns...

I still maintain that Ax needs to dump that crappy curve and go back to throwing his slider more. The curve was a nice change of pace pitch when mixed with his heavy FB and slider but it's too loopy a curve to be a featured secondary offering by itself. As a hitter if you don't fear a secondary offering you just sit FB because you know you can get your bat on that curve... I would have never qualified Ax as a control guy, in my opinion he needs to do a better job keeping hitters off balance so his mistakes don't get crushed, and whatever he was trying to do with his pitches last year didn't work, and through his first couple of appearances this season it seems to be the same mix of pitches. Maybe I'm just bitter because it seems like every time I think to myself this is a good spot for slider he loops up a curve and it gets hammered some place and I want smack both him and Lucroy through the TV. At any rate, the Brewer's continual struggle with the back end of the bullpen is why I'm always in favor of flipping an overvalued reliever coming off of a big year. If you can land an everyday player or starting pitcher make that move 100 times out of 100, reliever performance is volatile, sell high when you can.

There are 2 significant issues with Roache... his wrist and the supposed "holes in his swing"... That's why I'm pretty excited to him play, I'm hoping he has bat speed like Lawrie (or better) when I see him, and I'll be interested in his approach at the plate and overall game. He's not a once a generation athletic talent like a Harper or Strasburg, he's just not the type of guy you can vault to the top a prospect without seeing him play a little bit. I made the same argument for Jungmann's high placement on almost all lists following that draft, I just didn't see any WOW factor in his pitching. Many of us jumped Arnett that high on potential alone, personally I've learned some hard lessons with player's I've championed around here, I'm much more conservative now in that I want to see some performance before I get too excited about a guy. I'm hoping to come away feeling really good about the T-Rats, especially the position players. I think the best lists are a combination of potential and production, and anyone who's going to have a MLB career deserves to be a top 20 guy regardless of position or role, because those guys are hard to come by. I love upside as much as anyone but there's also value in a Fiers, Schafer, or Davis type player. I think back to Brent Brewer being high on the P40 because of his athleticism, but he never did anything... if we're only talking potential then Yadie should be top 10 guy on every list because he has double digit HR power and every fielding tool we would want for a player at a premium defensive position. The fact that a player hasn't had a chance to perform shouldn't hurt him on lists, but it also shouldn't help him, there has to be something tangible to point to besides "potential". Hopefully this season proves to be a new beginning for all of us that follow prospects around here... I'd like to be excited about the system again and it pretty much all hinges on the position players in WI and the pitchers high in the system finding more control.

I'm not sure where the venom for Morris' defense is coming from, he's worked pretty hard on it. By all recent accounts I've read he's a league average guy at the next level. 2012 BA Best Tools I also agree with splitterpfj's premise that I'd like to see a guy perform a little bit before I start putting him in the top 5 or even top 10, unless I'm that "sure". For example, based on upside I think Arcia's omission from that list is ridiculous, but I'm also willing to acknowledge the possibility that I just like him more than everyone else. I'd like to see how the young men perform in full season ball before I start trying to create a pecking order. The upside in those A ballers is tremendous, but to be our "best" prospect player also has to perform at a high level. I don't think there's any doubt that Roache has the best power potential in the system, we'll just have to see how it all shakes out. Then again 3 years ago I was certain Walla was going to be at least a 15 HR/year guy in the minors.

Draft Bonus Pools Rise 8.2 Percent We have the 3rd lowest amount of money available for our draft picks after losing the 1st round pick for Lohse.

Finally just a handy refresher on which prospects moved where in the off-season, provided by BA. 2013 Trade Central Index

BA posted a bunch of prospect notes for each team last week, all are subscriber pieces: Greg Garcia Takes Big Step Forward For Cardinals Pirates’ Josh Bell Showing He’s Healthy This Spring Brewers’ Gindl Showing He Can Survive A Slump This was written by TH. Cubs’ Shortstop Saunders Opens Eyes There wasn't a piece on a Reds' prospect posted.

I'm not looking forward to Taveras in a St. Louis uniform anytime soon. Prospects who missed big league cut Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals MLB.com's No. 3 prospect was told he'd be assigned to Triple-A Memphis on Thursday and was sent to Minor League camp on Friday. Why: Taveras is 20, has never played above Double-A and has played more than 80 games in just one of his four Minor League seasons. While he's a natural hitter, he's still learning to play the outfield. With that in mind, there's no way Taveras should supplant center fielder Jon Jay in St. Louis and there's no reason to rush him into a corner spot when the Cards have veterans Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran in place. Why Not: Taveras' .746 Spring Training OPS proves his readiness to face Major League pitching, and he would benefit defensively from playing with and being tutored by Jay. Like sluggers Bryce Harper and Mike Trout before him, he's good enough to learn the game at the highest level. Triple-A can be a waste of time for players with his kind of talent.

Peralta's worst case brings a tear to my eye. Best/Worst Case: Top prospects in the Show Shelby Miller, SP, St. Louis Cardinals Best Case: MLB.com's No. 25 prospect Shelby Miller not only holds down the fifth spot in the Cards' rotation but starts challenging for second-in-command behind ace Adam Wainwright. And command is the reason: Miller spots his mid-90 mph fastball to both sides of the plate, racking up strikeouts and groundouts with the best of them. Worst Case: The 22-year-old right-hander acts his age, as big leaguers sit on his heater and watch his stagnating off-speed stuff miss the zone. Plus, Miller struggles with the longball -- the 24 he served up in 27 Triple-A starts a year ago prove to be the tip of the iceberg. Before its top pitching prospect can settle down, St. Louis calls on Redbirds options Michael Wacha and John Gast to replace him, potentially living to regret the awkward exit of veteran Kyle Lohse. Trevor Rosenthal, RP, St. Louis Cardinals Best Case: MLB.com's No. 43 prospect Trevor Rosenthal becomes in the bullpen what Miller becomes in the rotation -- an immediate leader. Rosenthal matches his 2012 results (2.78 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 22 2/3 late-summer innings) and, going above and beyond in the absence of injured closer Jason Motte (strained elbow), takes the reins in the ninth inning. The National League Central's best team also has the division's best young closer -- OK, second-best to Mr. Chapman in Cincinnati. Worst Case: The 22-year-old righty burns out in the bullpen and, with the Cards' rotation still filled to the brim, is sent back to Triple-A Memphis to rebuild his innings count and sharpen his secondary pitchers. Only now that he's been trained physically and mentally to be a reliever, his Wainwright-like transition to a starting role feels a lot like starting from scratch. He falls behind Miller, Wacha and even young Tyrell Jenkins on the prospect totem pole. Wily Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers Best Case: MLB.com's No. 64 prospect Wily Peralta, like Miller, is more the pitcher who shined in his big league introduction down the stretch than the one who was chewed up and spit out by the PCL. Peralta deftly controls the movement of his sinking fastball and power curve, giving up the occasional home run by circumstance. Worst Case: The 23-year-old righty walks three or four batters a game -- he issued 78 free passes in 28 outings at Nashville in 2012 -- and he stops pitching to contact, trying to strike out every other batter. His up-and-down success rate is too random for his skipper, and the GM gets the message, calling on Tyler Thornburg as an alternative. And, yeah, that three-year deal with Lohse looks awfully good, as he -- not Peralta -- slots nicely behind Yovani Gallardo on the staff.

A very Mehringesque look at the Pirates taking on their Altoona affiliate for a ST game. This blog post reminded me quite a bit of Chris' posting style on his blog which is why I made the comparison. It's very lengthy and full of pictures, but as it's a slow day I admit to reading the whole post. On the Road: We Are Family in Altoona (Part One)

This is just an article of note considering the pitching taken at the top of the 2011 draft. Fernandez likely wouldn't have made the roster if the MLB pitching in front of him wasn't hurt, but impressive none the less. Fernandez, Bradley get the call

MiLB.com 2013's Under-the-Radar Prospects A Cubs prospect is the only divisional prospect listed:

World Baseball Classic: Top 10 Prospects Subscriber piece. 8 of the 10 players listed were Cuban and all of the Cubans were position players, scouts don't think there is another Yoenis Cespedes or Yu Darvish in this bunch. The top prospect listed was Masahiro Tanaka a RHP from Japan, some quick notes on him:

Actually, not true. Take Braun out of this equation here, because it will never happen. Now if you included Gallardo or even a number 2 pitcher as the main piece of the trade or another top hitter on the team, and then threw in a bunch of high potential average players with hardly any service time, it would net him. It's not really a quantity over quality type of trade, but rather a quantity mix type of trade. That would do it. So you substitute an opinion as fact but claim that trwi7's assertion that the opinion of the relevant parties is really all that matters is not true? How does that make sense? Many of you are missing the point, it's not about what we as Brewers fan feel a particular player's value is worth, it's what Jon Daniels thinks that Andrus/Profar is worth that matters which was the original point quoted above. If you're Daniels and looking to trade one of the best young SS in the game your starting point is going to be equal physical talent, and most likely multiple impact prospects, like 2-3 top 100 prospects. A quantity deal isn't going to get it done with the better GMs in the game, that's just not how they operate. Daniels wouldn't give up his top prospects for a couple of months of Greinke, he's no fool. The Brewers don't have the impact minor league prospects to trade so you're talking about trying to get equal value for 8 years of Andrus or 7-8 years of MLB's top prospect Profar's service time from a MLB Brewer, the only player with the contract length/production that fits the bill as of today is Braun. Gallardo isn't under control long enough (though Texas could extend/resign him) and Lucroy isn't good enough... Texas isn't going to be looking to acquire Hart and Weeks type players. I agree that the Brewers wouldn't ever be motivated to trade Braun, but Braun would be enough to maybe snake Andrus/Profar and a top pitching prospect which would make sense from a Brewer perspective. The contracts will even out and the Brewers shore up their middle IF for at least the next 5 years plus add an impact arm. However pulling Braun out of the mix basically leaves a starting point of Gallardo but then we're sending Gallardo, Thornburg, + whichever of our A ball hitters Texas wants (Roach, Arcia, Coulter, Taylor). That's the type of deal Daniels would be looking for, he wants impact potential in his trades... look at what he got for Teixeira and then look at how the Brewers match up with that haul. Furthermore while the Andrus contract is a tad excessive it is still movable in the future, that contract won't be a deal breaker. The contract doesn't hurt Andrus' trade value at all, in fact the contract actually preserves his value by setting the cost and years for a team that would be looking to acquire him and expires right in his mid 30s, it's a shrewd move. Thinking slightly out of the box the Rangers could move Beltre to the DH, Kinsler to 3B, and have a middle IF of Andrus and Profar if they so choose. Or Kinsler to DH... or whatever they want... The point here is that Rangers now have flexibility in terms of cost and talent, all 4 of those guys are signed for at least the next 3 years, none has a horrible contract, and all are tradable given the right situation. People really need to quit looking at just $/years vs production, there are many more angles than that to account for in these types of scenarios. How much differently would the whole Hardy situation have played out if he was extended at age 25 with a contract that bought out some of his FA years? That stupid demotion would have never happened and he would have been extremely attractive to suitors following his 2009 campaign with 3-4 years of service time remaining and Escobar in AAA behind him. The Brewers would have had many more options than trying to snake an extra year of service time in 2010 to try and get some of Hardy's value back prior to a trade. 2010 wouldn't have had to be Hardy's make or break year, the Brewers would have more options than that. They could have created a trade package around Escobar for a younger pitcher with 3 or more years of team control left instead of signing the parade of aging averagish veteran pitchers we've had come through Milwaukee in recent history or trading for Marcum/Greinke which left us without pitching again for 2013. TX has a plethora of options at their disposal moving forward, I wish the Brewers would have ever been in that position. It always seems like we're backed into a corner limited to a couple of obvious trades/FA signings or nothing.

I have never once seen Carlos Gomez "trot" the bases. I have, and we posted the video of it on the minor league forum. He showed up an A-Ball pitcher, did his bat flip and everything, then got into it with the opposing coaches after the game. Watching it in a person I missed the bat flip (saw that on the video later), I was watching the ball, but I did notice how he was moving around the bases, and he did pick-up the pace once he got past 2B. He then continued more antics in the dugout... for goodness sake you are a MLB player hitting a HR off of a kid in his first full season of professional baseball, congrats for finally doing something worthwhile at that level I guess. McMahan or someone got beaned immediately following, I'm not certain anymore who the player was that got beaned and I'm not going to look it up, but that incident on his rehab assignment last year cemented my opinion of the guy. Carlos had looked horrible at every AB in that game (and in the previous T-Rat games he appeared in) until the pitcher hung some kind of breaking pitch waist high down the middle of the plate and he hit the game winning HR, the way Carlos reacted like he had won the WS rubbed me completely the wrong way. I wasn't much of a Gomez fan before that and after watching his performance on a rehab assignment I'm just not a Gomez fan at all and I'll leave my comments at that. My intention isn't to hijack the thread into a discussion about what's right and wrong following a HR, but given the level of competition I thought everything Gomez did was completely inappropriate for the level of play.

There aren't many in a given a year and truthfully if they excel outside of the Brewers most of those 18 year olds get a bump to A+ right away that first season as they are Latin kids whom have already performed and are on the fast track. At least as far as the ML and divisional prospects go, whom I spend the majority of my time following. In fact, outside of the Brewers many first year players don't stay in the league for a full season if they perform, but with that being said I'm not sure I would have bumped Gennett up after his first half in WI either, there was simply no need since the organization planned on resigning Weeks. Off the top of my head I'm thinking of American draftees like Trout, Bundy, Cowart, and so on regardless if they spent a year in short season ball or not prior to hitting A ball. I would desperately like Arcia to blow through the ML and earn a promotion to BC after the break. I'm not all that big on Yadie, he's one of those guys who flashes a ton of talent but stays pretty much the same guy from season to season. I don't think his presence in BC should have anything to do with Arcia's career path. The talent the Brewers have in WI is nice and all, but it has to perform, and that still doesn't diminish the fact that above Rookie ball (which is largely meaningless) the Brewers were woefully thin on talent coming into the off-season. We've beat this into the ground over the winter, but again let's not count our chickens before they are hatched here. Many of us have continually said that this year could redefine our system if some of our position players perform. However, we're still awfully thin from an impact pitching standpoint below AA... as in there's no one... and there's not a lefty in the system worth being legitimately excited about so there's still plenty of work to be done. I know Lopez was assigned to WI and had a projectable frame on draft day (and yes I obviously remember championing the pick) but that placement seems awfully aggressive based on his demotion all the way to the DSL last season. I'll be curious to see him in person for a variety of reasons which is why I think I'm going to catch the entire opening series next week at TWC field, with the exception of possibly Wednesday depending on who is pitching. If it's someone I'm lukewarm on I'll probably do my usual Wednesday Wings/Duck Dynasty thing at my brother's restaurant as I'll be able to catch them later in the season.

He was hurt at the end of spring training, I highly doubt he's starting in AA, the Brewers have never done that with any player in the modern era. Hopefully we see him in WI or BC in the next 2 weeks.

Maverick Lasker *sigh*. I was so high on him and Odorizzi when they were drafted but Maverick never put it together for an extended stretch above R ball. It's hard to fault the organization for letting him go though as by last season I had even given up hope that he would fulfill his draft day promise. And for what it's worth, his name is in my all time top 3.

Minigoon has stepped up to take Huntsville which frees up MH to fill the same roll as he did last year. There will be 3 more teams to cover with R ball starts mid summer (DSL, AZ, and Helena) so we could still use volunteers to sub and/or take a rookie ball team when the opportunity presents itself. I also like the idea of rotating teams around at some point(s) during the season, we can discuss that down the road.

That's about how I feel as well.

There has to be someone out there with 20 minutes a night to commit to writing up a team. I have confidence that someone will step up to the plate. in the interim, thanks for grabbing the AA team MH.

Oops for some reason I thought they traded him, just makes my point stronger though. The Rays haven't traded much hitting because it has never been a position of depth for them. They trade pitching because they always have a bunch more coming. I have to believe there's no way you're looking at other organizations on anything more than a superficial level. The continual over generalizations and blind support of Melvin and by extension the Brewers is maddening given the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. TB built their franchise on pitching but that doesn't mean they don't have hitting, they just draft more pitching than hitting and rightly so. They don't continue to trade pitching because they have so much of it... they cycle pitching because it makes sense to flip older players for younger and more productive versions of the same guy. You know, the same trades that Monty, I, and many others have been suggesting for years. They make trades that Melvin never would, like flipping Shields, Garza, and Jackson in the off-season (not waiting for the trade deadline in the final year of a player's contract). They also traded young hitting to get young pitching, Young/Garza, flipped a closer for Jackson, and traded a starter at the end of his rope for Kazmir. That's how they got good... it wasn't luck, it wasn't great drafting, it was identifying 2 points about pitching. 1) That pitching was severely undervalued at the time and 2) that in order to compete with teams that have greater resources you need to be able to develop and maintain your own rotation. TB has drafted some very exciting position players and they've had a super prospect recently in Desmond Jennings who I enjoyed following in the SL in 2009 when he played for Montgomery. B.J. Upton hasn't been great but he was a super prospect and 2nd over-all pick, and Matt Joyce was acquired when they flipped Jackson. That's not a world beater outfield, there's no Braun tearing the cover off the ball, but with their pitching they don't need to have a Braun to win games. Looking at their 2012 team they basically only need significant upgrades at 1B and DH, but they've always been thin at those 2 positions as an organization, which is why I wanted to flip Fielder that direction in 2008-09. Since they've gotten going with pitching their drafting has been more balanced, but even TB's draft philosophy is different than the Brewers, just about every pick in the top 10-15 rounds each year is a high risk/high upside type player. Many fail, but some pan out, because it's very difficult to project HS kids to MLB when they've even left home. I always point to the Rays because my philosophies about baseball line up perfectly with what that organization has done. So how about some other examples, like Cards who I've posted about on the minor league forum as they've dominated us over-all since 2006. They've won 2 World Series and still managed to have a stacked a farm system. How about the Cubs who traded a young relief pitcher for Rizzo and are loaded with good young positional talent but have the money to spend in FA on a top tier pitcher when they are ready to make a move. Instead of whining about the Pirates pocketing money (which they never did) or poking fun at them about trying something different from a training standpoint, look at how much impact talent they have ready and near ready to MLB? What about Cincy who already has a better MLB roster and a better farm system than the Brewers? It's impossible to make this stuff up, there's too much information readily available on the internet. I'm not some Brewer fanboy that's just going accept whatever Melvin or M.A. choose to do, and I called my shot on Attanasio's meddling on the MLB side on a long time ago. I disagree completely with the notion that moves which supposedly maximize the MLB team's chances in a given year are necessary or in the best interests of the franchise in the near or long term. I find it hard to believe that someone as smart as you appear to be Ennder isn't capable of seeing an obvious pattern that keeps repeating itself here... sign middling aging FA pitchers to shore up the rotation, trade for an expensive CY short term solution, repeat. We've won 1 division crown and 1 play-off series since 2006, that's a borderline criminal record with the positional talent which Melvin was gifted with through the system. Seriously... Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Braun, and Fielder have all been all-stars and 2 of those guys have played at a HOF caliber level. The system didn't give him impact pitching and yet he did nothing to acquire young impact pitching over the years and here we are again: The cycle repeats itself signing another severely overrated and aging pitching for too much money, and no I don't care that he was asking for 15 mil/year and we got him for less than that, he's not a bargain. I used to try to make my point trade by trade, other posters and myself have pointed out numerous times how bad the MLB team has been from a pitching standpoint over the years, we've also listed numerous examples of other teams having a sustained run of success without using a "window" strategy, we've talked about the horribly weakened farm system, we've talked about the scouting department being raided by other organizations, we've talked about the lack of impact pitching as an organization for years, and yet the reality still escapes many posters whom frequent this site. It's one thing to disagree based on well thought out arguments that have merit, it's another to disagree with throw away generalities like calling possible moves that could been made fantasy, and generally be dismissive without really considering the evidence in front of you. There's one man who's responsible for everything, there's one man who's job it is to build a solid organization than can sustain itself. Can anyone honestly look at what Melvin has done as the GM of the Brewers and say the organization as a whole is better off today than it was when it took the helm in the early 2000s? We had a crappy MLB team with a loaded farm system, now we have an averagish MLB team with an aging roster and crappy farm system that isn't able to cycle out the talent we have. Fielder is gone, Hardy is gone, soon Weeks and Hart will be gone, and with them the limited success Melvin has seen as a GM. I would submit that at least 10 current GMs in baseball would have gotten more out of the positional talent that Brewers graduated to MLB, that core was going to win no matter who the GM was. Melvin is an average to below average GM, he's not terrible, but he's not good enough for a market like Milwaukee where every dollar/asset has to be utilized to it's full potential. His record in FA is terrible, his record signing extensions with bad players is terrible, many of his moves are purely reactionary in nature, he doesn't assign value to players properly, and he lets the market dictate his strategy to him. He's essentially the same guy as he was in Texas... not terrible, but not good either.

Wonderfully put.

I hate the Brewers on days today. You cannot build a rotation around signing averagish veterans to 8 figure contracts because you never get over the hill and get 3 1-2 type pitchers, especially when you're giving up 1st round draft picks to do so. Once again another band-aid temporary solution... we've been stuck patching the rotation the same way since 2006 and not surprisingly it's never really gotten fixed. Good thing I'm on vacation this week so I can have a beer in the middle of the day.