TheCrew07

Love sweeping the Cubs.

Smashdfjahflkajhf is fortunate, that's twice this series Braun robbed by a pitcher.

Well the obvious answer is that he stinks and people just fondly remember his half a season here that was largely meaningless in the grand scheme given the state of the pitching staff. Seeing as he's still better than Counsell and Farris I don't really care. Farris is at least an excellent defender, Lopez literally brings nothing to the table anymore.

Well the obvious answer is that he stinks and people just fondly remember his half a season here that was largely meaningless in the grand scheme given the state of the pitching staff.

How many good things do we say about Chicago?

This team will have to stop giving outs away or they won't do anything in the post season.

Why didn't Fielder run him down? Does he feel bad about a string of concussions he's left in his wake? There's no reason he should slide and take the worst of it.

If you want to include Wolf, then you also need to include all of the poor to horrible FA signings, with another good one in Cameron. His record in FA is pretty bad, he's spent a ton of money in most cases just to spend money. Again the GMs I consider to be the best in the game haven't made a single trade along the lines of Sabathia, Marcum, or Greinke... those GMs target young talent. One's position on this matter depends entirely on which perspective one chooses. Personally I've always been much more interested in doing more with less, I'm not enmaored with how the big teams operate, nor did the playoff appearance mean anything to me. A world series appearance and sustained success is all I basically concern myself with.

Watched the game from my brother's establishment last night, I didn't see Greinke hang a slider all night, that's the best he's looked all year.

How so? He's made 2 moves that improved the team at a significant expense in the last 2 years and 3 moves in the last 3 years. They weren't aggressive trades either, the trades were ultra conservative as far as I'm concerned. Where's the risk in trading for CY winners? Young players without a proven track record are risky, Melvin doesn't trade for young impact talent anymore as he got burned in the past. Well they have Wright at his current contract through 2012, with a team option for 2013 and he's only played 45 games this year. They also have a need a 2B and Green would at minimum be a decent bench bat in 2012. His defense probably isn't very good at 2B but I could see the Mets wanting to unload Wright's contract for prospects and rebuild given the young talent in Atlanta and how good the Phillies are. David Wright 3b 6 years/$55M (2007-2012), plus 2013 club option 6 years/$55M (2007-12), plus 2013 club option [li]signed extension with Mets 8/06 $1.5M signing bonus 07:$1M, 08:$5M, 09:$7.5M, 10:$10M, 11:$14M, 12:$15M, 13:$16M club option ($1M buyout) award bonuses: $50,000 each for Gold Glove, All Star selection if traded, Wright may void 2013 club option [/li] 1 year/$0.374M (2006) [li]renewed by Mets 3/06 [/li] 1 year/$0.3225M (2005) [li]re-signed by Mets 3/05 [/li] drafted 2001 (1s-38) $0.96M signing bonus agent: Levinson brothers, ACES ML service: 6.075

So on one hand you use WAR, and on the other you straight wins and losses? How is that an objective and/or fair assessment of his value? Regardless you're neglecting the idea that he shouldn't have been used in some of those situations to begin with, the outcome was predictable. Simple math... statisticians will have us believe that 10 runs is equal to 1 win which means that McGehee and Betancourt were a combined -20 runs on the season... Loe has only given up 24 runs all season, if he only gives up 14 his ERA is in the 2s and people are talking about how well he's pitched all season. Unless you're suggesting that relievers shouldn't ever give up runs? As I said previously, there's simply no way he's had a greater a negative impact even if you believe he should have been pitching in every single one of those situations. As it stands Loe is about a league average relief pitcher who hasn't been utilized to his strengths. He's a scratch player, McGehee and Betancourt both carry negative value. If you like the K-Rod trade that's fine, but it's not sensible to suggest that any reliever will have a greater impact over any reasonable sample size than 2 position players. Loe isn't K-Rod, but he's not a black hole (negative value) on the team either. The greater need is always the starting pitching and position players... fix those spots first, then worry about the bullpen.

I'm not going to ever argue against talent, but better pitchers? Best case scenario Thornburg's ceiling is similar to Jungmann's, and I'd argue that Thornburg is actually a better athlete. It would seem that you are making this about right and wrong... the pundits agree with me so I'm right type thing... I like the gurus just fine, and I enjoy reading their opinions, especially those that come out of BA. However, some of those same guys that are now championing a Peralta for example, once said that he was nothing more than a reliever. The same argument that was made against Thornburg, so I take their opinions for what they are and nothing more. When TH thumped his chest because BA used most of his prospect submission for their top 30, it called into question how BA rates their prospects. When I started following the minors I was under the impression that BA was independently scouting and impartially making their lists. The reality of a beat writers submitting lists when they've never seen at least 90% of the players on the list play suggests that they are just asking the organization and going with what they tell him, and then in turn submitting it to BA. These are fan top 10 prospect lists, no one here is getting paid to do this except for Colby and he didn't offer a list, I say let people make their lists however they want. The fun is discussing the prospects, not nitpicking how lists are created. I don't see how you could leave Khris Davis completely off of your 50 player list and then bag on how someone chooses to create their top 10. People asked about it, you responded, and the issue was dropped, why not do the same here?

Is it just me or do the broadcasters go out of their way to highlight every little thing McGehee does well? For some reason calling that hit a triple is grating on me and I shouldn't even care.

So if Jungmann comes in and pitches (since we won't see him in Helena) like Nelson did to start this season in A ball or Arnett did the year before, he should still have been worthy of a top 10 rating in the system? You've yet to adequately qualify what's so wrong with the vast majority of prospects having to earn their ranking? At any given point we'll have at least 3 sets of round 1-3 picks in addition to the latin kids in the system not to mention there's always a couple of overachievers doing well in the upper minors. Obviously it's much easier to bust into the top 10 today than it was in say 2005, but I'm not sure why anyone outside of a Strasburg or Harper type should instantly be a top 10 player on draft day? He didn't say he needs a 3 year record of success, he said he wants to see some results in pro ball before assigning a player a high grade, which is a reasonable opinion. No matter how bad the system is there will always be a fair amount of talent in it. You'd be hard pressed to convince me that Jungmann will have a better career or beat Heckathorn to Milwaukee unless he does some major work to his delivery and tightens up his secondary stuff. Taking everything into consideration (talent, level of competition, production, projection) at this time I'm going to rate Heckathorn higher. Jungmann may certainly eclipse Heckathorn down the road, but today I'm going to rank the prospects the way I did. I'm not saying I'm right, I'm saying I'm awfully conservative when it comes to ranking pitchers because so often the draft day scouting reports don't match what I see when I watch the players in WI, especially velocity wise. In the specific case I mentioned, Jungmann had zero WOW factor to his game when I saw him pitch, not once did he impress me with a great pitch. Even someone I've been critical of like Scarpetta would WOW me with the occational curve or with a perfectly located FB. Personally I've become more conservative over time, I'm not even willing to make excuses for players anymore, I've been burned too many times trying to reason away poor results by prospects. I lean much more towards Geezy's philosophy than I do yours.

Narvy has pitched well after that terrible pitch to Ramirez, keep it going Chris. edit. Scoring McGehee's hit a triple was obvious home cooking, he's out by a mile if the throw goes to 3rd.

Foolish based on your subjective analysis and the extreme examples as proof that you offered? My point was none of these guys are can't miss and just because you think they are top 10 talent based solely on draft position and relative talent doesn't make it so. I think it's foolish to criticize other people's methodology when it's based on a pretty reasonable mix of talent and results. Furthermore it was much easier to bump Z's picks into the top 10 than it is Seid's, simply because most of those guys were so obviously special in one way or another, Z had a track record of success to back his picks which Seid does not. I understand and agree with your point that sometimes you have to wait for the ultimate results to match the talent but I don't have any issue with a "wait and see" approach when it comes to rating prospects. Obviously Arnett doesn't deserve to be a top 10 prospect even though he was talented enough to be a #1 pick, he's barely in your top 30.

I'm not sure how hitting a pitch down the middle of the plate to RF is "vintage", but it's nice that McGehee came through and drove in 2 runs. That couldn't have been a triple Bill? Wow Castro can pick it at SS.

haha worst double ever but I'll take it.

Good swing Corey, I hope Nyjer dropped that bunt on his own. edit. That might have been Morgan's worst AB of the season.

Horrible pitch, settle in Chris.

Isn't this just a matter of preference? Comparing Strasburg to Jungmann/Bradley isn't even fair, the Brewers haven't drafted that high in years and won't for at least the next 2 drafts. Strasburg was a once in every 10 years kind of college talent, Jungmann and Bradley aren't on that level, few players are. Any high school player is a good 3 years away from contributing at MLB, much can happen in 3 years, it's a long road. You prefer to rate players mostly on ceiling which is fine, and obviously most everyone prefers the more talented player if given the option, but the ceiling of the players isn't firm, it's open to debate. I'm not anywhere as high on players like Jungmann and Scarpetta as many of the people around here, I see their ceiling a notch or 2 below what others see. Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but I have no problem with people wanting prospects to earn their way into the top 10 unless they are so obviously dominant and polished when they are drafted that there's no doubt they will be MLB players in the very near future, like a Strasburg. After all, what position player has a higher ceiling than D'Vo? If we're mostly rating on talent/ceiling then he should probably be in everyone's top 10. Who's ultimately a better prospect? Someone 17 years old performing very well in Helena or a just drafted 21 year old performing just as well at the same level? I'd argue the 17 year old nearly every time because he has a realistic chance of being in MLB by the time he's 22, even moving at a conservative pace. Obviously if you get a special college talent like Braun he's going to be in MLB by age 22 or 23 and also has a very high ceiling, but again we aren't talking about that level of college talent here. Some had Bradley rated that high, but while he's acending as a player his body of college work isn't exactly awe inspiring either. I also think the track record of the scouting director has to factor in, Colby talked quite a bit about the Brewers doing well developing talent as a reason why the Brewer system is underrated over the winter, but the people who made and fought for the those picks in many cases are no longer with the organization. They are in Seattle, Houston, etc... We don't have the same people evaluating the talent and the current scouting dept has quite a bit to prove. I do like Seid, but he's quickly running out of time, this most recent draft class must hit the ground running or his job will be in jeopardy, and rightly so. I just don't how any subjective rating measure is better than another, ultimately the players will slot themselves and prove their worth. Personally I enjoy reading lists that are very dissimilar from my own with comments written in as I might have overlooked a player who's going through a tough stretch, I also enjoy reading other people's perspectives on players.

Maybe he's just unaware of how bad the left side of the infield is. If the Brewers were just league average in blown saves they could easily be four games up in first place. Once again how much of that was the players and how much was the manager? There is simply no way 1 reliever is a bigger problem than having 2 of the worst players in the league at their starting positions every inning of every game.

I wanted to acquire Shields for Fielder in 2008 when fangraphs had them rated the 29th and 30th most valuable players in baseball. The rating took into account how much length of service they had left, their contract status, and their production. The other deal I really liked was a Santana/Kotchman for Fielder proposal that someone else had dropped in a Sabathia thread if I remember correctly. The trendy pitching topics around that time revolved around the obvious rental players that could have possibly been had, it's back around page 18 for me but I have 50 topics per page. Just doing a quick browse to confirm my memory players like Harden, Sabathia, Peavy, Greinke, Bedard, Halladay, Hernandez, and A. J. Burnett all being talked about... I had totally forgotten about the Mark A./Bucks rumor. Out of all the various topics young pitchers that were being shopped and could have been had like Niemann and Morrow were barely discussed, Morrow drew 2 whole posts in his thread. The reasons you didn't see me mention Niemann in this thread is that I honestly thought Sonnanstine was going to be the guy to go instead of Jackson, and Niemann was already on the block and the Brewers weren't being linked to him at all. I liked the idea of him so I used the "Niemann type pitcher" in many of my arguments. Also at the time of the post I didn't realize that Marcum had blown out his elbow. I've always favored long-term solutions, even before pitching was all the rage again.

Worded slightly stronger than I would have, but this is the point people tend to overlook. Loe isn't the problem, Loe pitching a ton and pitching in poor match-up situations was the problem. He's a very effective reliever when used properly, but basically anyone can see when he's not locating his sinker down in the zone and when that happens he's extremely hittable. K-Rod is a name, I won't take that away from him, but he's hardly the same pitcher that lit up the radar gun in the mid 90s in his prime. He's certainly effective, but he won't be a difference maker in so few innings when common sense could have improved the Loe situation. I want to like RR, I really do, but he does a couple of things that just happen to be my pet peeves so he angers me from time to time. Macha was the only Brewer manager I actually loathed, but I think it's fair to say that Loe's failure was as much if not more on RR than it was on Loe. I'm not one of the posters around here that's going to make excuses for players that are underperfoming and even I will acknowledge how poorly Loe was used, seemingly because he was hot to start the sesason and RR didn't trust anyone else. Given the organizational hole at 3B, trading away Green would be collosal blunder at this point. I've avoided using the term "myopic" in regards to Melvin and many of the trades and posters because it seems too strong (or maybe I just don't like the word), but I think Melvin and many people who contribue on the trade proposal forum have a myopic view of the organization. Some posters on this site have been in win now mode since 2007, it seems the majority are this year because "we're all in", which has me to the point I'm ready to gag from reading it everywhere on every Brewer related site I might stop at. Many posters will be in win now mode next season, and the season after that, and I understand that to a certain extent that's just the nature of the beast, but I don't understand the lack of patience. One of the more statistically orientated posters (I honestly forget who, I think it was Sam but can't say for sure) asked in 2008 if people would be willing to take an intentional small step back after Sabathia and Sheets left in 2009 to take another leap forward in 2010 pitching wise. The posts were overwhelming negative towards the idea, but I just never understood the lack of patience, the general tone of the conversation was Melvin had money available and he should spend it. We aren't some long suffering fan base and the organization isn't particularly strong from top to bottom yet many act like the Brewers owe them something. Furthermore many believe prospects are valueless (my all time favorite unsupportable "hasn't proven anything" argument" and we'll always have a continual stream to trade away, but that's not the reality of the sport for a team like Milwaukee that's already stretching it's means as far as they can go. Taylor Green has value, his poor performance is directly atributable to the way the organization mismanaged and mistreated his wrist injury. It's certainly not his fault they made him wait until the following season to have surgery hoping it would heal over the winter. Again, I don't make excuses for poor performance but he was so obviously hosed over by the training staff that it is difficult to ignore the reality of what happened. He's not a top prospect, but McClendon is a decent relief prospect and Green's upside is probably that of a league average 3B so that's way too much to give up for any reliever, especially since we aren't pulling draft compensation when he walks. It's one thing if you can spin McClendon and Green into Heckathorn and Odorrizi, but it's another to spin then into Frederickson and Dykstra, or nothing at all other than the 30 IP. Yes I know Melvin spun Dykstra into Morgan to essentially save that situation, but it goes back much deeper than that and I won't rehash every move that has led us to this point yet again. There's simply no good, supportable, and logical reason why the Brewers cannot break in a couple of young players every year and maintain a high level of success. The only reason that hasn't happened is because Macha was a dunce and Melvin traded away the rest of the 2nd wave for pitching this off season. Many other teams break in rookies during pennant and WS runs every year, and they don't possess some magic formula that the Brewers are somehow lacking, and not all of those prospects are successful out of the gate either. The only magic is the common sense to give young players the room to fail and grow while continually working to build their confidence. Any good coach can do that... Evidence of 1 player's success or failure has nothing to do with the next prospect which comes along. Braddock isn't struggling this year because Parra failed before him and Eveland failed before Parra. Some guys make the leap and maintain their confidence, some guys don't. The Brewers thought they got lucky and struck gold with McGehee, and they did for a season and a half, but it's poor roster management and organizational planning not to address the situation given the options readily available. In fact if Melvin did put Green on the list knowing how McGehee has struggled this season and how far away any legit 3B prospect might be from Milwaukee then this trade would be a microcosm of every problem I've had with Melvin since 2007. He's never looked to build to anything, only patch what he already has, and duct tape is only going to get you so far before it all comes crashing down. That's why I'm not having much fun this season, I know the Brewers need to win because Melvin has nothing left in the minors to prop himself up with, but with that winning Melvin likely saves his job and status quo continues for another 3 years. He took the team out of the gutter but then proceded to completely empty the tank and put us in position to fall right back down because he made all those moves without ever trading for solution we'd control more than 2 years that possessed any kind of impact talent.

That's not my understanding of it and it's always bothered me. If I'm wrong I'll certainly give the program more credit for being more in depth than I believed, and would certainly lend more weight to their conclusions.