TheCrew07

Arroyo looks pretty bad all of a sudden, hasn't hit a spot in 3 batters, that ball over Casey's head was pretty atrocious, might have an opportunity to jump back into it here.

He dials it up on occassion when he needs it. I remember an interview (I think with Hook) from last season where he was talking about Odorizzi and Heckathorn dialing it down working on location. He said both could touch the mid 90s when they need it. Also, it's pretty early in the season, I was more encouraged by Rivas topping out at 93 as well given he got a late start. Unfortunately it sounds like Heck was mostly working fastball/slider yesterday, he needs to keep working that change that showed flashes last season in WI. Though I do agree with your premise, especially from the recent drafts, it seems like many of the highly drafted pitchers never touch their "draft day" velocity. Arnett, Frederickson, and Adams come immediately to mind. The crazy part is that you would think college pitchers would be easier to project velocity wise.

There was nothing he could do on that play. Even if he goes to 2nd the guy was close enough to get back.Just because Casey is slow and doesn't have great arm, so he didn't have play, doesn't make me feel any better about having him at 3rd. How many of us knew it was a hit as soon the camera backed up? Casey gets the most of out what he has, he's just very limited athletically, and he'll get worse as he gets older... I'd rather he slide to first but it appears the organization has decided that's Gamel's spot. Not that Gamel would be better at 3rd... like I said, I wish we had a better long term option. I feel the same way about Casey as I did about Braun taking too shallow an angle to that ball and having it go over his glove, neither player is an asset defensively.

For all the good things Casey does, I really wish we had a better defensive option than him at 3rd long term. And damn, Wolf gives up a 3R HR, I might have to turn this off.

Why argue semantics at all? Any loss to a divisional opponent isn't a good thing, it's really that simple. Yes there is plenty of time left in the season and no one should be jumping off a cliff yet, but at the same time the Brewers simply can't afford to get swept by any divisional opponent. While they should be expected to lose a certain percentage of series played away from Miller Park, especially against the better teams in the division, it doesn't matter if it's the first series, the 5th, or the 10th, it's never good thing to be in position to get swept. It's not about being 0-2 for season, it's about possibly being 0-3 vs the division winner. The Brewers would have to win the next 3 series just to get back to even against them, it's a steep hill to climb.

Aguilar could be interesting, his decline was alarmingly abrupt, he looked so promising in 2008.

Too obvious trwi&7, and I doubt they put that much thought into the date.

Keeling's BB/9 of 28.2 makes Frederickson's 10.2 look like Fiers' 2.3.

Yea it's crazy to expect young talented players to get better, it's tough living out here in la la land... Volquez is coming off of surgery, he'll have his ups and downs, and maybe he never gets it back, but that's certainly not something to hang our hat on in the off season. Leake jumped directly to the majors, it's an entirely different grind, not to mention being a rookie, I'm curious to see how he progresses. Bailey is going to do what Bailey does, I'd take him over Narveson as a #5 because if he ever figures it out, watch out.... Cueto would be the biggest loss, if he also needs TJ surgery then I gotta believe Chapman will be in the rotation. 1 injury and the Brewers will have less experience in their rotation than Cincy, relying on experienced but talented pitchers to raise their game, something about stones and living in a glass house comes to mind here. Tell me, how many Brewer pitchers can we expect a full season out of? In the end production certainly trumps talent, but if talented players aren't ever given a chance to flourish, how will they become consistently productive? That's the catch 22 isn't it? How to finish the development of young players and yet win at the same time? Cincy's stable of young pitching talent is immensely talented, yes they have warts, but they are talented. Our current stable of young rotation talent in that class consists of Gallardo, that's it. I know which side of the coin I'd rather be on. Isn't this all a bit premature given spring training success/failure means absolutely nothing come opening day?

Brownstein is also back in action, nice to see

I think that's a fair statement when you're talking about guys in the middle talent wise, but we aren't. When you have that size and that kind of velocity with your FB, hitters will have enough trouble just trying to catch up with the FB that you don't need a 3rd pitch. Sheets was a 2 pitch pitcher and did just fine, as was Randy Johnson. They both developed a get me over change later in their careers but when you think of Sheets you think FB/CB and when you think of Johnson you think FB/SL, and Sheets never had velocity like Chapman has. When the talent is so exceptional one simply doesn't need 3 pitches to have success. Look at Edwin Jackson, he's never figured out his command for an extended period of time and gets people out by just being effectively wild with his fastball. He's like the Wild Thing... he kind of has an idea where it's going but the hitters have no idea, and there's no time to hesitate when you're facing 95+ mph gas. I'm sure the Reds would like Chapman to be a complete pitcher, but he could probably get bye on the 2 pitches he has for now. This would be another break for the Brewers, I just don't understand the obession with closers at all, they've literally become my least favorite position in sports. I have no idea why anyone would want to pay average starting pitcher money to only get 50ish IP for the season. Stop the madness! edit. The only real advantage for Cincy would be by putting him the bullpen they can stop his development cycle and start getting something out of him right away, which isn't something I necessarily agree with. I'd rather a pitcher fails as a starter before being shipped off to the bullpen.

No, my opinion of Melvin hasn't changed at all. In WI I don't think there's any doubt that he's a vastly more popular GM than TT in GB, even after the super bowl victory. I do believe there is a bit more appreciation for what TT has done now, but I think if you asked random fans to rate GMs 1-10 Melvin would blow him away. On the hand, I think Melvin gets way to much credit for acquiring name players at the wrong time. I've said it literally a thousand times on this site but I'm not ever interested in going all in... not ever. I'm extremely patient and want a rock solid organization top to bottom, I want to win for 10+ years, not win for 2, lose for 2, and so on. I see the usual cracks about TB losing forever to get high draft picks, but how was that different than Milwaukee prior to 2006? We seem to forget just how awful the franchise was and ignore the fact that TB made it to the WS largely through pitching they traded for and didn't develop themselves. We also have arguably the worst farm system in the division now, maybe we are better than the Astros, but that's about it, how do we sustain success moving forward? TT built a franchise through patience, never overreacting, rarely spending money just to spend money (Popinga comes to mind here), he just keeps adding players with dynamic ability and they make plays. The young guys certainly have their ups and downs, Sam Shields is basically the epitome of the idea I'm talking about, but in the end he made enough plays to help the Packers achieve the ultimate goal. This is exactly what I've wanted Melvin to do, sign the young core early, build through drafft, trade excess resources for needs, and so on. Not since the Sexson and Overbay trades which I view as quantity over quality has Melvin acquired anyone with any longevity via trade. It's not about the prospects given up, it's about giving up value for such a limited return. Grienke was incredibly expensive to acquire and I believe we overpaid for Marcum as well, there was nothing "excess" about any of the players moved in those trades, the talent wasn't redundant in the way that Brantley and LaPorta were at all. Yes building around pitching is the idea, but we need to build a stable of young pitching, not acquire players in their late 20s nearing FA that we'll have to replace in the short term, or resign for market value in the long term. To the average fan I'm sure the trades look genius, but I'm just not able to get past the thought that Melvin has built a house of cards that will all come tumbling down with an injury or 2 to the wrong players. Melvin only trades for "known" quantities, I just don't think that's a philosophy for long term success in Milwaukee. To make the trades Melvin made over the winter and go 1 and done in the playoffs would be an epic failure n m opinion. I'm in the awkward position of caring and rooting for a team that I'm not sure success is their best interest... because on the field success means Melvin gets another 3 years and I dread the organization resigning Greinke and Marcum, or trying to lock up McGehee long term. I know I'll get the "what was Melvin supposed to do?" excuse like always, but the answer is simple. He wasn't supposed to continually back himself into a corner and limit his options. I don't care to rehash his trade history again, he's philosophies work wonderfully for turning a franchise around and making it respectable, but I do not believe we'll ever reach the pinnacle and win a WS doing it his way. Not to mention it's impossible to sustain success over the long term when you cycle so much young talent into "proven" commodities.

I'm not sure how to do this... based on what I think the system needs the most or who I like the best. I'm going to say Tyler Cravy...? at 6'3" and 180 there's still plenty of room to grow into that frame, and I'm pitching biased as usual. Evan Frederickson and Max Walla were other choices I had in mind, but it's hard to hope that Evan will turn things around above R ball.? His BB totals are just so astonishingly poor every year...? but he's a monster now, MiLB has him listed at 6' 8" and 240 lbs... I don't recall him being that thick in WI. Here's video I shot of Evan, does he look 240?

It sure would be nice if Farris would get some playing time at SS, I still think he profiles best as a utility player. Regardless, I'm not sure he has a future at 2B in Milwaukee with Weeks in front of him and Gennett behind him, both of whom are much better hitters. Gennett hit for a .817 OPS last season, at the same level in 2008 Farris only put up a .709, and that's with a .293 BA. People thought Escobar had a weak bat but Farris was worst of hitter of the top 4 players on the 2B depth chart last season. Lawrie is gone, but if Gennett continues to impress with his bat and Weeks stays healthy I don't see how Farris fits at 2B because Gennett will be ready before Weeks' contract is up. Right now Farris is a utility player without any utility... I sincerely hope the Brewers figure out a way to make him a more flexible player position wise because he's strong fundamentally all the way around and could definitely be an asset for the MLB team down the road.

I don't see that at all.... Weeks, Braun, and Fielder were all drafted in the first 10 picks, we just aren't going to be picking that high. In reality a team can only trade away as many prospects as Melvin has if they are also losing FAs and getting comp picks in return, which we aren't. Losing Fielder won't help draft wise until 2012, getting boned with Sabathia hurt some, and getting nothing for Sheets was crushing. I already did a quick analysis of the recent drafts, the Brewers just aren't having much success replenishing the impact talent well. A pretty conservative estimate would be we need 2 legit impact prospects to replace an impact bat already in the line-up or pitcher already in the rotation... we don't have anyone in the system with the potential right now that will come close to matching Braun or Fielder's production. I had high hopes for Gamel and Lawrie but it's tough to stay on the Gamel bandwagon when he doesn't stay healthy and make the most of his opportunities, Macha or not, and Lawrie is gone. Rogers could be an impact pitcher, I would be thrilled if he figured out his command, but we'll always have to be concerned with his health. Weeks, Braun, and Hart are signed long term so that give us some breathing room, but I'm not a fan of the money spent on Hart and I think signing McGehee long term would be a mistake as well. I'm fine if they want to sign Casey through his arbitration years but I wouldn't buy any of his FA years, he's too old for that kind of deal. I would much rather be getting younger and more dynamic, young teams can win, can get to the WS, and can win it all. That's a pipe dream with Melvin as GM though, he cycles talent the opposite direction trading prospects for proven players so we don't have any flexibility payroll or talent wise... we're 1 deep everywhere, and not even 1 deep in some positions. We'll just have to hope this off season works out wonderfully and Hart to continues to play at last year's level because we have a system of role players at this time. Acquiring Greinke and Marcum to go 1 and done again in the playoffs would be a colossal blunder in my opinion. Wainwright getting hurt was a big break before the season even started but we're a long ways from playing deep into October like I keep reading. The Brewers are going to need to stay awfully healthy to make a serious run and even at 100% I'm not sold we win the division. The Brewers should be above .500 the next 2 years and the top 15 picks in the draft are protected (Fielder Comp pick) so the likely hood of being able to draft uber college talent like Braun or Weeks seems awfully remote, and the system needs more impact pitching as well. We'd have to get lucky with a signability guy dropping and panning out perfectly to get an impact player. It's absolutely possible to get impact talent late in the first round, but the Brewers haven't exactly hit home runs with that first pick the last 2 years. Most likely we'll need to draft younger players to get that kind of talent, but those players take more time to develop. There's still plenty to like about the system and there are still plenty of players I'm high on, but it's going to take at least 3 good drafts in a row to fix the system. And no, drafting high floor\low ceiling college players with early picks who will move fast is not a good solution to the problem, that path hasn't worked for any team that's tried it since I've been following the minors, it's a nothing but a recipe for what not to do.

I think many of you are getting caught up in the player comparison and missing the point. As a couple of people have pointed out, when Braun was 20 he was in college, not in AA, certainly much more sheltered than a Lawrie is, and I also have no doubt that similar pictures of Braun exist. No one is saying that Braun made all the same mistakes that Lawrie has, or Lawrie will be viewed similarly to Sheffield. What we are saying is that when you read interviews of the 2 players, they come across in a similar manner, and how they are viewed for saying nearly exact same things depends solely on the perspective of the person who's making the judgments. Is the player arrogant or confident? I think a player's production ultimately makes that determination for the public as a whole. I know a couple of professional athletes personally, enough to know that one isn't able to compete in professional sports if they don't have a swagger about them, which many people mistake for arrogance. I'm not sure Braun was immediately "a great teammate" either, I recall a print story about his maturation in the clubhouse as well. He made an error in the field, came into the dugout and tried to excuse it away, but Fielder was having none of that and let him have it. Everyone knows Braun is talented, but I bet every other fan base in the central feels the same way about Braun as we do about Puljos, or any other "showman" in the division. We respect their talent, but don't care for them at all. I have no doubt that Lawrie is immature, has growing up to do, and may never fulfill his potential, but I also don't think he's beyond redemption. I've sat across from him at T-Rats games and eavesdropped on his conversations and watched him sign dozen of autographs for fans, he didn't come off as an egotistical jerk in person. I think the whole C issue is being blown out of proportion, many of us didn't see him as a C, and he certainly didn't take to it during instructs. He's athletic enough he could realistically play anywhere on the diamond, and his bat speed was very impressive in person. If you read what I wrote in the MiLB forum you know I thought he was athletic enough to play 2B but I always through him into the conversation as a potential 3B/OF as well. Part of the problem with the Brewer system has been that it takes them way too long to find homes for our more talented young men defensively, so they end up playing out of position for far too long, like using Brantley as a 1B/DH to get him ABs when he clearly had no future at that position, but that's another topic entirely.

I think it's pretty fair to say that there is a noticeable segment of the population on this site that will root against any prospect traded so the Brewers "win" the trade. As I find that manner of trade evaluation to be extremely superficial, I find those sentiments to be petty and easily dismissible.. That's just not my way. If I like a guy, I'll continue to root for him regardless of where he ends up. Then again, I didn't particularly care for LaPorta because I found his blog extremely transparent, every time he wrote or was interviewed he just rubbed me the wrong way, not to mention the stories fans and former team management shared about him. However, I'm a fan of the Cleveland organization for a couple of reasons, but mostly because they treated a former player extremely well who has gone out of his way to support my family and the football program. Since they took care of one of our own, I naturally want to see them do well, and part of that is hoping that LaPorta becomes a better than average hitter for their organization. Not because I care for the player, bur because I want to see the organization do well. Obviously I've followed the minor leagues closely and over the years I've developed an affinity for the way some other organizations do business, so I'm not just a Brewer fan. I'm rather indifferent about Lawrie as a person, but as a player he was one of a very select few in our minor league system that had the potential to be something special, and since I happen to like what Toronto's new regime has done, I'll follow his career with passing interest. As for the rest of the conversation, I don't think Brett was off the mark with anything he said, he didn't fit anywhere for the Brewers in the short term, so then logically Toronto is a better opportunity for him. It's that simple... In another organization Gamel could have been getting a MLB paycheck for at least 2 full seasons by now, any competitor is going to want the opportunity to actually compete. Regardless, I really don't see the distinction between Lawrie and Braun, they both talk and carry themselves exactly the same way. If Braun's confidence didn't rub you the wrong way when he was coming through the system or as a rookie, then Lawrie shouldn't bother you either. If Lawrie turns out to be a similar player to Braun he won't be seen as a jerk, he'll just be confident in his abilities, success between the lines has a funny way of changing perceptions... edit. Geez, I typed this post between games of HQ in COD so it took me most of the night and now I see that TLB beat me to the Braun punch... and here I thought I was going to add something new to the discussion. Sorry TLB.

I always rooted very hard for Mike, he was one of my boys. Best of luck to him in his future endeavors.

Well there are at least 3 different programs that I'm aware of, a couple were detailed in this thread, and they aren't all that similar. Again, Mark's should be being clean and pain free is probably more important that what throwing program he utilizes, I'm not comfortable claiming that his long toss program added 14 MPH back onto his fastball, but I do think it's fair to claim that it helps him condition the arm and maintain his velocity. I know that it has an impact with the under developed arms, which is about all I see. Kids up here just don't play enough ball outside anymore so that their arms are in any sort of condition to last a football or baseball season. I know from personal experience that my arm was sore from the first day of baseball practice until baseball was over. It sounds stupid, but I thought that's the way it was for everyone and unfortunately my arm speed was declining by the time I was a Sophomore, so I've very sensitive about mechanics and conditioning, trying to protect the boys from suffering my fate. Most baseball players up here don't pickup a ball until March, and those that pitch are on such irregular pitching schedules because of weather all spring and summer that they never really get in a groove, and the good ones end up being abused pitching every other game. I really like the conditioning aspect of long toss for my young men who never come into camp with their arm in good enough condition to make just the throws necessary in 2 a days. To be fair, I've likely listened to over 100 QB coaches give presentations in my years coaching and no one has ever talked about long toss in football. I stole the idea from all the reading I've done about pitching here on this site and other baseball sites I used to frequent in the past. I had some goals in mind to fix some issues in our program, had some ideas about where to get started, and figured out the rest through trial and error with the kids. Without any proper guidelines it took me a couple of years to be able to ball park the proper distance and proper number of throws for each young man. I know I said 30, and that's typically what my starting varsity QB does at near max distance, but the distance and number of throws will vary for each kid in the system... there is no one size fits all program that will work for everyone. In fact it will vary from day to day depending on the workload and what we work on in O groups. The kids that have come through the program bought in though, because 2 of them have graduated college and are coaching now, utilizing the same system. If I had to put long toss into a single sentence I would say that I believe in it because it's the simplest way put all the mechanics of a throw together while maintaining good delivery tempo coupled with a a focus on finite accuracy. Long toss is relaxed enough that young men can still think their way through the entire throw, but it's fast paced enough that they still get good muscle memory out of it. At any rate, the next time everyone agrees about pitching will be the first time... all we really know is what doesn't work, but even then people can find exceptions to the rule and argue against it, like the debate over pitch counts for young pitchers.

Well I'll say this because I know it works from personal experience. Every single one of my QBs gets in 30 alternating long throws every time we practice with the exception of a day before the game. They will drill one in on a line and then finesse loop in the next. I've had freshman QBs that could barely throw the ball 30 yards in August reaching distances of 45 yards by the end of the first season. Before I get to practice (I don't teach and have to drive 30 miles to get to practice each day) every QB is supposed to go through their fundamental throwing progression to warm up. I haven't had a QB come up through the system yet who threw the ball properly, most have messed up strides, an incredibly poor release, and poor arm angles which leads to unnecessary stress on the elbow and shoulder. The release when throwing a football is nothing like throwing a baseball and most kids actually have to cheat to get a spiral because they were never taught properly, and since most of my QBs also pitch, they want to pick up their feet and stride heavily when throwing the ball. The QBs I've had that wanted to be good put in the time to learn how to throw properly, the rest don't put in the time and don't have much success, and it's pretty easy to tell who's putting the time in each day. The end result of proper mechanics and the throwing program (i watch the throwing program after practice and tweak) is that we always have strong armed QBs for our level of play, freshman through senior, our problems are usually more mental in nature, though I have had some kids that have never learned to stride properly and as such always struggled with accuracy. I'm a firm believer in long toss building arm strength, even during the season, and I also firmly believe that if the kids would take 20 minutes and do their progression and long toss program all spring and summer we'd get even better results, but that's a long story for a different time. I won't credit Mark's return in velocity solely to his throwing program, I think the shoulder being completely free of debris and pain has made a significant difference for him, but I also believe that a proper long toss program strengthens the arm while keeping the arm conditioned properly. The trick though, is to limit the throws outside of the program so the arm/elbow doesn't fatigue. For example, I don't want my QBs throwing 80 balls in practice then turning around and throwing another 30 long toss after practice plus another 20 working extra with the receivers after their long toss is completed. I try to keep the workload around 60-70 total throws per day, and I would think there's a good number for pitchers as well.

I'm not sure how be uncertain about Mark's future makes someone down on him. He's been in my top 10 since he returned, I ranked him ahead of Braddock.. The difference here is that while I believe in his immense talent, he has work to do with his command and his efficiency on the mound. If he's going to become the pitcher he has the talent to be he needs to quit walking batters and figure out a way to get through the 6th inning in less than 100 pitches. Lee Tunnell is the man, I'm very happy the Brewers added him to the organization a couple of years ago now, the man can teach pitching/mechanics.

but to question Greinke's stuff (age too) is just absurd. I missed this one and didn't address it in the long post, I apologize for the double post. This time 2 years from now Greinke will be turning 29 and physically on the downside of his career, quickly approaching the injury apex in the average pitcher's career cycle. His stuff is better than Gallardo now, but they'll be pretty similar in 2 years, and overall his stuff isn't in that top tier, he's in that next group down. An interesting side note is that Yo's average velocity actually climbed last season... at any rate Greinke had 1 season he pitched like an Ace, I think he's comfortably a very good #2 and if he gets in an extended groove he can pitch like Ace, but statistically he's not an Ace, the stats for his career just don't bear that out. If we pay him like an Ace 2 years from now I highly doubt the Brewers will get their money's worth out of him. I never said he wasn't an impact pitcher, he's just another temporary solution that the Brewers paid a heavy price to acquire.

This will be long because I'll be responding to everyone at once, so many people won't even read the entire post, but here it goes. I've repeatedly said that my 2 goals were a World Series and a solid franchise, I have never been interested in 1 and done in the playoffs. This team isn't a shoe in for the playoffs and we are talking World Series? We didn't pick up Halladay and Sabathia, we picked up Marcum and Greinke. There's quite a bit to like about both guys, but what's behind them? What if Marcum's elbow gives out again? What if Greinke suffers his first major injury? Teams just don't make it through the season on with their 4 best pitchers for the entire year... yes it can happen, but who here is going to bet on it? We don't even have the best rotation in the division, sure people will argue we do, but let's see how it plays out. Furthermore what's wrong with being mediocre if you're building a foundation that will sustain the team for the next 10 years? TB has been to a World Series with young talent, we have not. This is entirely a philosophical issue, no one will ever convince me that buying talent which is declining physically and getting more expensive financially is a solid plan for the Milwaukee Brewers. Of course I know we're a better team on paper, but to me that's a surface issue, I'm working much deeper, I'm seeing a different picture than what most of you are talking about. Yea I know I'll be called a prospect horder which is as far from the truth as it gets. The simple truth is that the majority of fans on BF.net are not interested or only having passing interest in the minor leagues and only really care about the MLB team. They don't have the capacity to discuss dealing for young impact talent because they don't know the names, or the names they know like Lincecum and Heyward are players that no team is going to trade away. Just like the Brewers weren't going to trade Gallardo, Fielder, or Braun as people suggested on this forum when they were prospects. The trade forum will always be filled with ideas revolving around established MLB talent, it's just the way it is. I'm all for trading surplus players for positions of need, but I firmly believe that Melvin continues to deal on the wrong side of talent cycle. Since my worst case scenario trade wise has already played out...my worst case scenario moving forward is this... now that we lopped off the impact talent at the top of our system the Brewers start drafting "get to MLB quick" type players to fill the holes that will be coming, and the last thing I want to see the Brewers start drafting high floor/low ceiling players. They are great filler, some of the players will surely exceed expectations along the way, but the last thing I want is a system full of Gabe Gross, Zach Jackson, and Dave Bush type players. Then we've become what Toronto was, a franchise with a couple of star players on the MLB level and nothing behind it. Melvin bought himself a contract extension, and I fully acknowledge that I'm basically out on a limb by myself as a Brewer fan, I'm in the extreme minority... but he bought Marcum 5 years too late and he bought Greinke 3 years too late as far as I'm concerned. He saved his own rear by sacrificing the organization's future. Do I think our farm system is now the worst in baseball? No, as I said I really players like Gamel, Rogers, Rivas, Gennett, Davis, Davis, Schafer, and so on, but it's certainly in the bottom 5 following the Greinke trade. I would have argued we were mid tier system before the trade, but again we traded many of our most talented players away. If Arnett, Adams, Frederickson, and Lintz would have worked out better of course we'd be in much better shape. But the organization knew how those picks have worked out coming into these trades. What do the Brewers have to show for the 2008 draft, the draft that was supposed to help rebuild the farm system? Logan Schafer drafted in the 3rd Round, and Maverick Lasker drafted in the 5th, and I think they have similar ceilings as players so I'm not sure whom I'd peg as the more talented player. Cutter Dykstra is still in the system and had a nice rebound year, but he doesn't fit at 3rd, he doesn't fit at 2nd with Gennett there, and I openly admit I never liked the pick so I'm not sure what to make of him. None of these players left from 2008 are impact players at this point in time. From the 2007 draft our highest remaining pick is Lucroy... is that -.2 WAR correct for the season? He'll be a better player than that, but he's not an impact player. Farris still screams utility player to me, I like Caleb Gindl but he doesn't appear to be special in any way. The 2 players I like best remaining from that draft are Scarpetta and Dennis, but Dennis is coming off a disappointing season and I've always thought Scarpetta was mid to back of the rotation starter after watching him pitch in person. I don't see any impact players left in this bunch. The 2009 draft... well Arnett's struggles have been well documented. Is Kentrail Davis an impact talent? The Brewers seem to think so, I'm not sold yet.. I like Kyle Heckathorn, but he needs a good 3rd pitch (he made progress on a change last year), most pundits seem to think he's a BP guy and we already have a ton of those. Walla hasn't worked out so well to this point, but I still like the pick. Garfield didn't really impress me or anyone I talked to who saw him play last season, though he's more athletic than the catchers the Brewers had in WI the season before. Prince had a horrible 2010, he is in desperate need of a bounce back season. I still REALLY like the D'Vo pick, I hope he starts to ascend as his game acumen catches up with his physical ability. Kris Davis has real power, I'm intrigued by him. Scooter Gennett packs quite a bit of punch into that little frame, he's a tough one not to like. Out of this group the D'Vo definitely has special athletic ability, but he's clearly not not an impact talent today. Kentrail Davis maybe? Scooter Gennett maybe? Where does Kris Davis fit as he seems to be more of a 2 tool player? The 2010 draft is difficult to discuss at this point in time. Nelson came on at the end of the year... Thornburg, Hawn, and Morris are intriguing. Outside of Covey whom we didn't sign, are any of these guys impact talent? I honestly don't know, objectively Thornburg is probably the one that has the highest ceiling in that group, I'll be excited to see this group in WI next year. So I believe my original point still stands. Philosophically I'm on the extreme opposite to most posters on the board and I readily admit it, but the Brewers have done little recently to keep the cheap impact talent cycling into Milwaukee. They've drafted enough, they've just missed on a bunch players and unfortunately traded away those they actually hit on for temporary solutions. Our farm system is definitely not what it was, and while I don't think it's in the worst in MLB, it's fair to say that Milwaukee's system should be included in that discussion. I'm not arguing that Sabathia, Marcum, and Greinke aren't better starting pitchers than what we had, I'm saying that Melvin has saved his job by making bad trades from a long term talent standpoint on numerous occasions now. There's no having it both ways... we can't trade away as much talent as we have and claim that our system is even close to the upper half of the league, we're very comfortably in the bottom 3rd. Of course prospects will fail, but that's irrelevant from a talent standpoint, everyone has prospects that will fail. Is trading for a 2 year solution better than trading for a 1 year solution? Absolutely. But that doesn't mean trading for the pitching solutions that were chosen was the best answer to our problem or even make it close to an ideal scenario from a talent standpoint. The object should be to have as many options as possible knowing that many prospects aren't going to live up to their potential, and we're back to having very limited options on the prospect front again. We just aren't going to be able to afford the impact talent from the Free Agent market, it's just not in the cards for the Milwaukee Brewers. Melvin may claim he had the payroll flexibility to make the trades and while that's true, that's not the flexibility that matters when building a franchise. Having multiple productive talent options is true flexibility for any franchise. Having those options allows for true financial flexibility as well because then decisions can be made on variety of factors instead of just the percentage of payroll a certain player might take up. For example, from a cost standpoint I'll take Jeffress over Hawkins every single time, from a talent standpoint I'll take Jeffress over Hawkins every single time, from a longevity stand point I'll take Jeffress over Hawkins every time, from a health standpoint it would have been a wash. Just like I argued against signing Hoffman last year because we had Braddock and Axford blowing up and ascending as players. So many fans, not just in baseball, but who follow all professional sports seem to want to their teams to spend money on name recognition which is basically spending money just to spend money. I'll take a Ted Thompson over a Doug Melvin 100 times out of 100, TT doesn't seem to be a very popular GM in the more popular sport, but I believe he's building the franchise the right way, and it's going to pay dividends down the road. In fact it already has this year, with all of the significant injuries the Packers just kept chugging along and made the playoffs. With better play calling they could have even earned a first round bye. Could the Brewers endure a couple of season ending injuries and make the playoffs? What's the relative (the Packers simply have more players on the active roster than the Brewers) margin for error between the 2 franchises? It's not a a straight apples to apples comparison and I understand that, but the relative depth of the franchises does stand out in stark comparison to one another. Unfortunately it will only take 1 or 2 key injuries to render the recent trades for the Brewers meaningless, they lack the depth as a franchise to be absorb the loss of key player(s) and keep moving forward.

Is the idea we've become a bottom tier team really that surprising? We gave up 6.5 years of the best arm in our system in Jeffress. We gave up 6.5 years the best pitching prospect (in my opinion) in our system in Odorizzi. We gave up a player that was in BA's top 30 a year ago in Escobar. Say what you will about him, he played as bad as he could play last year and still provided value, we gave up 5 years of him. We gave up 6 years of a highly under rated player (in my opinion) who happened to be one of my personal favorites in Lo Cain. We gave up 6.5 years of our best option for an impact bat in Lawrie. All of that for 2 years of Marcum and Greinke... All the Brewers have done is get older and more expensive... we aren't getting younger and more explosive. Why would we want to resign Greinke and/or Marcum? I like both guys... but look at age, look at how much they will cost, and look at their stuff. Melvin has learned nothing and all he's done is gut the farm system and provide more temporary patches to the rotation to buy himself a contract extension. Sure we'll win more games next year, maybe the year after, then what? All of these moves with minor league players have just shortened the competitive window. I've said it a thousand times, I'm not a win now guy, I want an extremely healthy franchise that can build from within. Obviously I want the MLB team to do well, but my primary concern is getting the franchise straightened out from top to bottom, I would love to be TB and we aren't even close, in fact we're farther away today than we were in October. The teams that get it are trading away these aging and expensive pitchers getting impact talent back creating a talent cycle that can perpetuate on itself. The Brewers keep buying these temporary solutions and we talk about hopefully getting something out of our draft picks. We're on the wrong side of the talent cycle... we should be trading expensive players away, not acquiring them. I'm completely disheartened. Yes there are players I still really like in the minors, everyone who reads this forum knows that I'm a big Rivas and Rogers guy. There are position players to be excited about as well, but my bottom line is impact talent and always has been. Where is the impact talent? Our system had good depth which made me feel really good about it, but when you lop off most of the top 10, all that's left is that quality depth, and there's a wide gulf between being quality minor league depth and being a 3-4 WAR MLB player. While I believe players like Rogers can still be impact MLB players, all of these guys have major warts that need refinement before I'll go out on a limb for them... we knew Gallardo was going to be special, we knew Fielder was going to be special, we knew Braun was going to hit... I'm not comfortable making definitive statements along those lines about anyone we currently have in the system, these young men have quite a bit of work to do.

I'm more concerned that his confidence has been shattered. Winter ball is, was, and always will be a horrible idea for players like Esky as there is just no tangible upside for a guy like him. You dominate... so what, the success will not translate. You suck... you come into ST mentally exhausted on a major downer. I'd rather our players focus on strength and conditioning in the off season while taking a long mental break from the game. Start working on baseball again in Jan to get ready for ST... leave winterball to the marginal players trying make a statement.