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Everything posted by TheCrew07
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Until a long-term rotation solution is acquired I'm going to be a detractor of just about every deal we make. It doesn't matter to me what we gave up, it only matters that we aren't addressing the true weaknesses of the team. 2B was not a hole, McGehee and Counsell were doing just fine. We already had tons of back of the rotation depth so why waste an asset on Wright? We keep addressing the effects instead of the root cause. 2B was not the hole in the lineup... Counsell should never start at a corner IF spot the same way TGJ should have never started at a corner OF spot. We had a gaping hole in the rotation last season, we have it this season, unless something drastic happens we'll have it next season, and in 2011 both Bush and Suppan will be gone. It all starts with pitching... the best way to even out the results of an up and down offense is to have a good pitching staff that's going to keep the scores down. The 8 position player are what they are. Natural attrition will turnover the lineup, but to win in the post season we need pitching, defense, and the offense. Every team in the playoffs will be among the league leaders in runs, most play good to excellent defense, but the rotations make difference. What was major difference between the Brewers and Phillies in the playoffs? The Phillies have been at the top of the Runs leaderboard for years and only got over the top when their pitching matched the rest of their game. There's not really any getting bye on average play in the playoffs, it just doesn't seem to work that way. You can win with average in the regular season, but in the post season you aren't going to beat the best teams giving away runs on defense or due to poor pitching. Teams will struggle to beat the Nats giving runs away in the regular season... in the post season those runs are killer. The offense is what it is, but who do we shorten our rotation to this season? People want Davis... is he going to shutdown the Phillies in 2 games? Will any of us bank on that? What about Yo? Will he hold up that long? Parra? I had high hopes, I'm not willing to hang my hat on him now... Looper? Suppan? I still maintain that some people are letting their personal pursuit of the post season get in the way of the realities surrounding this team. This notion that you just have to get there doesn't really hold water.. Colorando and St. Louis made it look that way, but if you look deeper into the numbers the answers are pretty obvious. Getting hot, getting on a roll... yes those things help, but the year the Rockies made their run they had a banner year pitching wise, and when the Cards made their run it was all about a shortened rotation that included Suppan in a career run of his own. Until we get a solid 1,2,3 we're a 1 and done team in the post season, we just don't match up.
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This is a trade sacrificing more assets for a marginal upgrade at best at 2B. The only good thing about this trade is Gamel going down to actually play in some games. This notion that teams in contention don't break in prospects is totally false. Just because you may not want it to be done, doesn't it mean it isn't regularly done across the league for a variety of very defensible reasons. For example, it's far better to break in 1 prospect at a time, than break in 3. This isn't a franchise that's going to be built around veteran players, and even the franchises that do operate in that manner develop their own prospects and play them while they in contention, because they are regularly in contention. I know many people are happy with the idea of filling the "Weeks hole" in the line-up but this trade doesn't address the fundamental problem with this team and organization as a whole. We need Quality pitching, not more average pitching, we already have a ton of that, we need quality. We now have 2 fewer pieces to move for pitching, which is seriously dampening my enthusiasm not only for 2009, but for the future as well. Gamel's splits while actually playing in the field are being overlooked. If he's over matched and still putting up an OPS north of .800, why wouldn't the organization want him to play and adjust to the level of competition. If he's struggling to an .800+ OPS what does that mean about his future? I wish I could have struggled my way to an .800+ OPS... I wish Hardy would struggle to an .800 OPS... He's not hitting near his potential and still put up solid numbers when he was playing in a full time role. By what measure was he not getting the job done? Pinch hitting? Who cares about pinch hitting, he obviously wasn't comfortable or accustomed to that role, the fault their lies with Macha, not Gamel. This is another "meh" deal, the team isn't significantly better on the whole. Gamel climbing towards his potential would have provided more offensive value than anyone else on the team not named Braun or Fielder. I see this as a similar team offensively now short 2 pieces that could have possibly been moved for an organizational wide hole. Melvin has done nothing to change my opinion that we're just going to tread water until some young pitching develops, if it ever will develop (yes the news about Braddock,.Adams, and Jeffress been like a kick to the groin to me).
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2008 2nd round RHP Cody Adams suspended 50 games
TheCrew07 replied to trwi7's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I'm trying to think of a way he could have been more underwhelming off the start. He looked tentative on the mound, wasn't throwing anywhere near as hard as his pre draft readings, and now this. Cripes. -
I'm not going to debate the merits of Escobar with you, but it's safe to say that he's a good "hitter", he's just not a power hitter. Edit. What I mean to say is he can clearly put the bat on the ball. He doesn't walk enough or hit for enough power yet I agree, but he's not pedestrian.
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Zach Braddock (Update: Ailing Shoulder-Reply #21)
TheCrew07 replied to PrimeTime955's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
There was part of an interview that I didn't post because the quality was horrible that covered the young pitchers in AA. Braddock was discovering that AA hitters can hit a fastball, he was going to have to adjust the way he pitches a bit and he was not locating his slider effectively. I sincerely hope he's not hurt again, with Jeffress being Jeffress and Rogers only pitching 50 pitches a game, this would be a significant blow to me personally as I tend to favor pitching. With any other organization I'd say at least it's encouraging that he hasn't been put on the DL, but that doesn't mean anything the way the Brewers have dealt with injuries in the past. -
His work behind the plate has regressed a little bit this season, or the official scorers are nailing him with more Passed Balls than giving Wild Pitches to the pitchers. Macha seemed enamored with him in Spring Training, but I'm not sure how much that means.
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If you were Doug Melvin...
TheCrew07 replied to paulmolitor4's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Are you just overlooking some players? We have Gindl, Cain, Gillespie, and Schafer between A+ and AAA. In WI we have a guy I'm really excited about in Dennis who happens to be another LH power bat. Beyond the legit prospects, there are many intriguing players out there... Wilson, McPhearson, Richardson (I hope), Walla, Ellington, Stang, and Davis (I hope). Not to mention Gamel and Lawrie's positions are not set in stone... The only place we're real weak as an organization is 1B... I guess we don't really have a hitter in the system with plus plus power potential either, but those guys are pretty rare to begin with. -
I wonder what the story is with Billings... he gives up far too many hits for the amount of BBs and Ks... Odorizzi is pitching well, he gave up a run last inning while I was messing around watching the Brewer post game, not sure what happened the box score hasn't caught up yet. Forgettable pitching in Nashville and Wisconsin, but Gillespie goes yard and Cain had 2 doubles. Rivas continues to pitch well, there's plenty of room on his bandwagon yet.... hint, hint. Gindl with a 2B, everything we read and hear about him is extremely positive, as he keeps reducing his Ks he becomes more exciting, at least in my opinion. Ellington 2 for 2 and Garfield with a hit and RBI in addition to Odorizzi having 6Ks against 1BB (I think).
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How is Kendell our best lead off option? That .322 OBP is crazy good I guess, I don't care that he works the counts, I care that he's been grounding into double plays left and right, has a .275 SLG, and generally speaking doesn't do much positive at the plate. Good to see that Gamel is sitting on the bench as well... I guess it's too much to ask not to waste service time... I think I'm just going to go bury my head in a minor league so I don't get upset about this stuff anymore.
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He's not the most toolsy guy, nor is he powerful, but I really like versatility and he seems to be willing to do whatever is required. He's a middle IF who's picked up the OF on the fly, can't argue with his determination. Maybe he'll be my next Sanchez, a glue type guy that just does whatever is asked of him.
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I'm not sure how they'd qualify it, for elite players it's pretty obvious to the naked eye. I guess they could do it with high speed cameras, but since every player's loading mechanism is different, when the does the swing technically start? When the bat starts down? Seems like there's quite a bit wiggle room here, sort of like total zone for minor league defense. Are we talking maximum bat velocity only? Time in the hitting zone? The entire swing in general? For maximum bat velocity it would be tough to get the bat speed... a gun would likely pick up the ball moving past as well, they'd have to take max effort swings against air, which may or may not be how hard they swing in a live game situation. Not a bad scouting idea though.
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JJ Hardy for Clay Buchholz?
TheCrew07 replied to MessiahRp's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'm not sure how Dave Cameron figures that exactly, with no proven track record other than minor league dominance. Last year when they had Fielder at 30 and Shields at 29 I thought they were pretty close. Clay doesn't belong at 38 in my opinion, Feliz has more upside, but he doesn't have any MLB track record. He's being converted to relief to get his feet wet, but he'll be in the rotation for Texas next season. Hansen doesn't really belong at 40 either, I get trying to give top prospects their love and all, but there's no way Hansen or Buchholz are remotely worth what Halladay is on the trade market. When was the last time 1 top prospect was traded for 4 top prospects? It's not even realistic... typically they are traded straight up for 1 one other top prospect, maybe some minor players going each way as well. While I agree with Dave that the baseball landscape is changing, I think he's taken it a little bit too far, prospects simply do not belong on this list. It's become a list of value based on future production vs cost, instead of trade value based on the established market. -
Steve gets all the best guests this time of year as everyone of significance comes out to the see the newly drafted players in Helena. Today he interviews the Milwaukee Brewers Director of Baseball Operations Tom Flanagan. Tom discusses his duties, some insights on the daily work each coaching staff puts into paperwork alone, and his career path. I didn't realize that Nichols monitors the bottom 3 teams and Ash monitors AA and AAA, maybe that just slipped past me in the past.
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Wheeler... wow... a 2 month long slump... is it a slump after a 2 months or something else? Brewer with his 20th error, at a premium defensive position. Gindl with 3 BBs so far, he's on a similar pace to last years BB rate while reducing his Ks, he continues to impress. Wisconsin plays much worse defense than shows in the box score, letting 2 pop ups fall, one of which they recorded an out, the other started Watten on his poor day, it seems that if Trey doesn't have the sinker, he doesn't have enough in the arsenal to overcome it. In Huntsville Bush just okay in his rehab start, nothing earth shattering, not much else going on early there.
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Future offense of Fielder, Braun, and 6 scrubs - good enough?
TheCrew07 replied to NYChez's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Isn't the problem with this though that so many pitching prospects just flame out or never even make it to the big leagues? For every Gallardo or even Manny Parra, there seems to be three or four Jeffress or Rogers types.That's a bit of an over generalization... we got Yo and Parra up, but Rogers and Jones both got hurt. Melvin brings up those 2 players all the time when discussing pitching, but the truth is that the Brewers didn't have enough high ceiling arms in the system to start with. Pitchers do get hurt but the Brewers have done a better job developing them as of late. Neugy actually made it to MLB so I'm not sure he's a flame out, but his workload probably was his undoing (beware Yo), and I don't think his injury was necessary his fault. When you only have a couple of arms with huge upside every player is more crucial. I like the current blend of hitting and pitching in the system. The system has never had this much quality pitching depth. Hendrickson and Sarfate were top pitching prospects when Fielder/Weeks/Hardy etc were coming through the system, those guys wouldn't even crack the top 20 prospects now. Cody has gotten better results than little Ben with much better peripherals... I think on the whole many of us learned some tough lessons 2002 through 2006 about what qualifies as a "true" prospect. -
What's this about a financial window? How is the 80+ payroll more relevant than the talent this year? In 2010 or 11 does our payroll suddenly drop to 50 million again? Fielder's trade value doesn't go up from this point forward, it only goes down the closer he gets to FA. If either Hardy or Fielder get moved for legit pitching when they are a 1 year rental I'll eat crow, but that seems like a pretty far fetched notion. There's a large segment of the population on this site that's pretty conservative when it comes to making moves. Hardy should stay, Fielder should stay, always want to trade for name players... I personally feel that tact lacks some insight and vision simply because a team like Milwaukee isn't going to be able to keep more than a couple guys from this current core, and Yo is more important than either Hardy or Fielder. Like or not the team is on a budget, there's going to be roster turnover, that's just the nature of the beast. When a team lacks pitching and isn't able to afford marquee contracts, bold moves are necessary to acquire that pitching. Gamel is going to hit, he's not some slightly above average player, he's moved slowly because he D was crappy and Braun was in front of him. Quite honestly, I'm not sure what some people are basing their opinions of Gamel on, certainly not the statistical evidence, not a comparison between Gamel and this current core when they were at the same levels in the minors, nor the anecdotal evidence from people who know the game like Don Money among others. If he doesn't stick at 3rd, he's a very good 1B tomorrow, trading Prince for pitching would have been a bold move with Gamel sliding over to 1st. Moving Hardy for pitching would have been a bold move letting Escobar play SS. Riding the players out to FA hoping to catch lightening in a bottle with the pitching... not a bold move. Even trading for Sabathia wasn't the bold move some have painted it as, it was the obvious move, he was best player out there, and giving up those prospects didn't hurt the overall depth of the organization, I'm not sure how a deal can get much safer than that. I would rather move 1 Fielder, than 4 players like Escobar, Gamel, Lawrie, and Braddock. It's not that I think prospects have more value, I just don't think we have enough pitching to get this team over the top this year, nor am I adequately able to predict what happens with the roster. Moving all those minor leaguers means that either we sign Hardy and Fielder long-term and deal with 3 players eating up half the payroll (Braun, Fielder, Hardy), or we get significantly worse when they walk because there is no depth behind them. Not to mention do we become married to Weeks, he's still somewhat of an unknown, what do we with Hart? The team basically loses all of it's roster flexibility making a move of that nature. I understand not every prospect is going to pan out, that's not the issue, the issue here is overall talent level and roster options. How do we win this season and get the best possible team for 2010, 2011, 2012 and so on? Note that I said TEAM, not a position by position comparison, no one is going to hit 50 HRs when Prince is gone, it will be impossible to replace his offensive production with another player. Trying to be as objective as possible, which is admittedly difficult because Hardy is my favorite Brewer, I think it's best to let Hardy and Fielder go in FA or a trade and try to build a new core around Braun and Gamel. I'd like to see the team sign some of this 2nd wave early to Braun type deals, get 7-8 years out of them, instead of the 6 they'll get from Fielder and 5 from Hardy (he came up too soon and then lost another part of a season to injury). Melvin missed out by playing it conservative through the arbitration process with most of this current core, I sincerely hope he takes a different tact in the future. I'm sort of confused by Melvin, he offered money to the wrong players, got burned, and then seemed reluctant to jump back into the fire. Hopefully we don't have any more Helms, Turnbows, Clarks... we should have players with significantly more talent and upside, so if they succeed I'd like him to aggressively lock up those players instead of overpaying for pitching in the bullpen and rotation. Trading Fielder had everything to do with giving value to get value, he's was/is the most valuable hitter who's the least likely to sign long-term. I didn't want to move him because he's fat, or his defense was bad, or I thought he was bully... I thought he defense negatively impacted his total value and I've been on a mission to acquire another young starter for a very long time.

