TheCrew07

They might be able to get a very good pitching prospect for him, most of the young arms I would have targeted have gotten hurt or signed extensions already. The pitcher might not be immediate help, but could figure in the mix in 10 or 11. It might be possible to snag a position player as well, it's tough to say.

Hardy is more valuable offensively today, but that doesn't mean they won't be close in the future. Instead of looking at situations like this in the current context, try looking down the road and making all of the pieces fit. Money said it best, who thought Hardy would develop as much power as he does? Escobar is trending upwards, there's no way to know with any reasonable amount of certainty what's going to happen with him offensively. I understand that there's a general consensus amongst the sabermetric community of 2 ish wins (20 runs) either way for defense, and I agree the upgrade from Hardy to Escobar isn't much, but it's hardly neglible. I missed Mauer as a 2010 FA, I don't think the Cubs will resign Ramirez and I'm not sure he'd be valued more than Hardy . Mauer absolutely, and there's no way he resigns with the Twins, so unless a trade and sign happens like with Santana, Mauer will be the marquee position player on the market. I didn't give serious consideration to Pujols, Berkman, and Youkilis becoming FAs as they play for teams that can/will spend money. I was thinking Hardy vs Ramirez and Hardy would be the best SS in the AL, the Yankees may have an opening, and Ramirez will be 33. Now that I think about the situation with CHC more, it's not like they have better/cheaper replacement in their system for him, so maybe they will resign Ramirez. At any rate, Mauer is certainly more valuable than Hardy, my bad for missing him. edit. How many times does the organization have to say that Hardy doesn't want to move and they are unwilling to move Escobar off of SS because of his skillset? These 2 players will not exist on the same team unless Weeks goes down with an injury. This is the 4th time that I recall Melvin talking about it in print or on television... Also 5 years for 50 seems low to me as endaround just pointed out, he might sign a 10, 12, 14, 16, 18 deal or something similar but the yearly average is going to be 12+ for any contract he signs so for 5 years the absolute bare minimum would be 60, but probably more than 70, even if the economy stays where it is.

He could very well be the best position player on the market, not just the best SS.

This wasn't anything new, it's all been in print before. My question is this... yes in a perfect I would love to resign JJ and Prince, but realistically where is that money going to come from? This is no different than people thinking the Brewers had a chance to sign CC, the 100 million was a decent offer, but the team and many of us here knew that he was never going to take less than a similar contract to what Santana got. To be successful the Brewers are always going to have a mix of vets and young kids, that's the only way to make a 90 million payroll work. Why does youth automatically equal a crappy MLB team? How bout them Rays last season, the Tigers a few years ago, and so on? I say again, losing Hardy or Fielder isn't a 1 for 1 swap of players. The offensive production might slip at 1 position, but there's potential for gains at every position we currently have a hole in the roster for, the team has the potential to be better offensively than it is today. At C Salome/Lucroy would out produce Kendall this year, at 3B we have Gamel/Green, at 2B we have Green/Lawrie, in CF we get younger/cheaper with Cain who's a true 5 tool prospect. Finally at SS we can plug Escobar to fill the void left by Hardy, it's just difficult to pigeon hole his offensive production at this time, though the most interesting comment to me personally hasn't been discussed, Money's quote about "Who expected JJ to hit 25?" is spot on, you really never know... The only spots we don't have a very solid prospect in waiting to fill holes is the starting rotation and 1B. 1B could maybe addressed by sliding Gamel over if he doesn't stick at 3B or via trade, the team has some options there as well. It's very reasonable to trade for starting pitching, runs prevented are just as valuable as runs created... the less runs the team gives up, the less runs they need to score. I'm a big believer in building from the pitching staff on down and while the rotation has some nice depth, it's pretty ordinary talent wise. The whole "unestablished" cop out really gets under my skin, how is it reasonable to hold a lack of MLB experience against any prospect? Every single player in the game was once "unestablished". There is no reason to hold prospects down when they are ready for the next challenge, there's only so much any player is going to learn in the minors. It's tough to see our favorite players walk, Hardy is mine, all of my memorabilia is Hardy related, but it's part of being a Brewer fan in the current ecomonic environment of MLB. Gamel's defense is not as bad Braun's was. there is a finite segment of the population on this site that keeps repeating it that statement as fact even though it isn't true. Gamel may not stick at 3B as he obviously needs work, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest that he can and it's all been very well documented on the Minor League forum. Many people in the organization believe Gamel can stick, and I'll take Don Money's opinion over people on this site who've never seen these guys play 100 times out of 100. If the team is going to start locking it's young position players then they are going to have to quit overspending on the bullpen and other marginal talent. It's a great idea to lockup Hardy long term, but it's just not realistic, they aren't going to be able to afford 12-15 million with escalators for the duration of his contract. It doesn't make sense to spend that money when the rotation needs better talent and when 2 SS prospects are nearing MLB, Escobar will be in AAA and Brewer will likely start in AA for 2009.

I kind of like him, I posted about him previously when we were discussing the Tigers in one of the other forums.

The Counting Crows never got enough love.

I understand perfectly what you are saying but you're missing my point. I'll address your points and try to simply my opinion. 1. There is a finite group of people who do the charting of ball's in play. Their subjective opinion of the play becomes the basis of work for all other statisticians. My intent was to point out that if you're statistician working on a metric, you haven't seen every play, you're working with the raw data provided from an alternate source. 2. I'm saying defensive metrics have obvious limitations, the various flaws have been well documented. 3. My point is that saying Hall is a + defender, when + would be better than 0 (removing whatever adjective a person would use), because a certain metric says so isn't necessarily accurate given the limitations of defensive metrics. 4. I believe metrics find deficient players as averagish and vice versa. 5. Metrics in general give a comparison, but do not put mistakes into context. I tried to highlight specific examples in Weeks and Hall that make them poor defenders in my eyes. All errors and misplays are simply not equal in my mind, but on paper they can be, and both players end up right around average defensively. I understand how, I just don't agree.

I wasn't speaking to any specific metric, though I can see where since I used range as a fundamental component of defense that you took it that way. I don't need to see every other 1B to know that Fielder isn't a good defender. I understand that the concept is relational to a league average or to other players, but that really isn't my point. For argument's sake, the league may be trending towards poor defensive play, and a player may be better than his peers, but that doesn't make players at the top of the scale "good" defenders, it just means they are the cream of the crap so to speak. Do I think baseball has a ton of bad defenders at 3B? Not at all. However given the flaws in all defensive metrics, I don't think it's fair to say that player X is better than player Y based any particular defensive metric or set of defensive metrics. There are so many variables they simply cannot account for because it's impossible to watch every single play... not all GBs are equal, defensive positioning, movement on the base paths, pitch location.. Hall may very well benefit from extra chances because of how often he ends playing SS as a 3B so I have no problem with subjective analysis when it comes to defense. This is no different than Weeks, who while he's improved, still botches the turn on the DP more than any 2B I can ever remember playing for the Brewers. He may rate out as averagish by a statistical measure, but a player who doesn't consistently make the turn or eat the ball when the play isn't there isn't an average defender in my opinion. He also gets eaten up by line drives which I don't understand at all, he'll get to a ground ball 10 steps away but can't get a step either way to get to a liner? Is his reaction time so slow that I just don't notice on the ground balls what a bad break he gets? On the flip side Hardy rated out very well this year, but I thought it was his poorest season in the field, and I believe he's a very capable defender. X, I'm not going to defend Fielder's play at 1B, I've been as critical of him as anyone, but Hall's inaccuracy is entirely on him, Hardy hits Fielder above the waste on almost every throw. Even watching Billy when they are warming up in the field between innings his throws are all over the place. Hall likes to show off his arm, he snags the ball, hangs onto it so that he can showcase his arm, which has absolutely nothing to do with Fielder. I forget what game it was last year, but Hall did his usual show and the runner was safe at 1B when he should have been out by 4 steps, that's on nobody but Billy, and when I think of him, that's the first play that comes to mind. Those sort of things are inexcusable, and just because Hall was better after he was benched doesn't mean that much to me personally. He got his money and has does nothing but regress, I don't buy into positional changes as the reason why, he was bouncing around when he had his best seasons. I would love for him to rebound, but I'm certainly not going to count on it. There has to be some subjective analysis, plenty of players who were poor defenders have become capable defenders without position changes. As baseball fans we've reached a place where it's more about the numbers than the scouting, the debates about the various MiLB players are a prime example. There should be good mix of number crunching and scouting, not one or the other. I've seen enough of Hall to be comfortable in my opinion that he's an athlete who's playing baseball, and playing with poor instincts at that. It's been the same arguments about him since 2005, some believe he's good because metrics like him, some believe he's not because of his inconsistent play, nothing much has changed over the years or will change, he's a polarizing figure.

The "average fan" gets picked on quite a bit around here, it's fair to say that many of us aren't average fans, and while some of us are, it certainly doesn't make their opinions any less valid than the rest of us.. I should have stated my opinion better, most people around here won't like observation because they consider it subjective. While I agree that there is the potential for knee jerk analysis, that's really not the issue here. For years defensive metrics didn't like Hardy all that much when observation showed him to be a better defender than his numbers would have suggested. In the same way Hall is so inconsistent that I feel he's not as good as his numbers would suggest. He's just not a fundamental baseball player in any way, that's what I base my opinion on. There's a prevailing notion that statistical analysis is devoid of bias, when that isn't necessarily the truth.. If you're sitting a room trying to devise a defensive metric where do you go all things be equal? Obviously the player who gets to more batted balls, or has more range... then the question becomes how to weight the different elements of fielding, what's the most important, the least important, what weight should each aspect get, which leads to study, and so on. The problem is that all things are rarely equal, and in the end it's just some statistician's, or group of statistician's best guess. A best guess based on imperfect data, as I'm not aware of a metric that has the data available to account for all defensive variables. Take a team like the Brewers for example, who utilize many exaggerated shifts, how does that affect the data? What if the defender is pulled out of position covering a stolen base, and so on... After watching over 80 Brewer games per year the last 3 years (many more the last couple as the number of games on FSN continues to climb), probably 30-40 other random games per year, and the 1000s of games I've watched and played in over the years, I'm pretty comfortable in my opinion that Hall isn't a good defender, regardless what the numbers say. If I'm building a team, I'm looking for players that will consistently make the routine play, doesn't matter what sport, I'm looking for consistency. I learned the hard way through personal experience that it's very difficult to win with very talented but inconsistent players. I've never been on the Hall bandwagon, which probably why I've always come out on the other side... I wanted Hardy over him, Braun over him, and Weeks over him, and I never wanted him signed to that contract. He's just not my kind of player, I admit a bias towards him, he's done some good things late in ball games and had a very nice season and a half, but I think it's fair to criticize the way he plays the game. He's a tremendous athlete that plays baseball, but he's not a baseball player, he's never really understood the game. How can you play IF, be the cut off man, and then not know where to throw the ball to in the OF? How can he continually make the same mistakes on the base paths? In the field? At the plate? I'd rather have a player who happens to be an athlete than an athlete who happens to play the game.

Dish Network has the motion comics up for pay per view, on a whim last night I watched chapters 1-4, liked them enough that I rented 5-8 this morning, and I already have the DVR set for 9-12 overnight. Each section is about 1:50 for the 4 chapters, I'm not sure what I'm missing from the book, but I'm definitely hooked. RobertR made reference to the comic within a comic which I obviously didn't get at the time, but damn if that isn't a cool idea in so many different ways. I'll finish the motion comics, see the movie, and I know for a fact I'll be picking up the original printed material.

Why is observation the worst way? Why should range be rated so highly by defensive metrics when the fewest defensive plays will come at the extremes? In my opinion the team would be much better off with another Hardy type who "turns outs into outs" than Hall. I'm right there with those that believe Hall is a crappy defender, he's the same player everywhere, lots of flash and little substance. 3B was not a new position to him, he had played their in the past. He's my poster boy for the flaws in defensive metrics... he boots way too many routine plays and his arm is too inaccurate to be a plus defender yet he's consistently rated as such due to his range.

It's not the most logical because it has roster implications. The length and severity of the injury would be the primary issue. If it's a week or two, Salome would get the call, if it's longer I'm not sure what the team would do. It wouldn't hurt Salome's development to ride the pine for a week or two and pinch hit/catch a game or two. If it's longterm and the team doesn't think Salome is ready, then some rosters decisions are going to have to be made, Rottino is not an automatic solution.

you can hook up your dish DVRs to your internet connection and avoid the $5 per receiver. Not sure on the contract thing, Dish will pick up MLB eventually, same as they did with the Big 10 network.

I don't understand why you think the employee has more rights than the employer. This is making a mountain out of an ant hill.

Ya UPS drivers really have it rough...

Remember the Brewers spent 7 million or so on the draft last season... it's not just player contracts, they have to budget money for the draft as well.

You like the demo? I've played it a bunch and the aiming system isn't growing on me. I've played every other RE game so I'm sure I'll get 5, but the aiming, the little red dot just stinks.

It doesn't bother me at all. The NFL has very strict uniform guidelines and their players manage it okay. This is about promoting "team", and who's employer doesn't have a dress or uniform policy? Have we truly reached a place where individualism is to be championed over the team? I'd much rather see less individualism and more team in every sport. I grow weary of celebrating routine plays and the general "look at me" way that many players in all sports carry themselves in the sports world today. I like Braun a great deal but his home antics wear thin with me the same way as when Barnett makes a tackle 8 yards down field and does his little routine, or players who have a TD dance...

Is it your opinion that Lo Cain broke out again last year? I'm expecting an Escobar like break out from him in AA in terms of BA, his power numbers should be much better. Brewer has been pretty impressive since July, there's no doubt.

I caught HBO's behind the scenes special last night. I wasn't familiar with graphic novels before discussions on this site about Sin City and 300, and I still haven't gotten into the genre, but thanks to posters on this site I have a passing familiarity with it. As a reference I liked Sin City much more than 300, though 300 wasn't horrible and I can generally tolerate any movie once. If I was giving a star rating Sin City would have been 4.5 and 300 was a like a 2. I sort of understand the plot of the movie now, they claim it's as close to the original material as possible, the scenes from the movie in the special were visually stunning, so I'm very intrigued at this time... I probably have the same level of interest as I did before Sin City was released. I will definitely see this movie in a theater, which is a rarity for me these days. I maybe go to 1 or 2 movies a year now, in my teens and early 20s I was going 20 + times per year.

Well they had a perfect player for that role in Brantley but obviously he's gone now. They are not too many guys with that kind of skill set floating around MiLB or MLB for that matter, that's a tough role to fill. If you're one to believe the studies on the "perfect lineup" then what we're looking for is our biggest BA vs OBP split plus speed in the first spot. Weeks does fit that role perfectly in a perfect world, however as I've said in the past I think he'd do better mentally out of the 1 spot, I have nothing to back it up other than my gut feeling. Sort of like how hitting in front of the pitcher bothers Hardy... I know the spot in the lineup shouldn't matter, but if it matter to the player, then there is a difference. I believe Weeks mentioned that he wasn't fond of batting lead off either, but I don't recall where I read that.

He may very well end up at a position other than 3B, but he's going to be given an opportunity to stick there first, especially with Green having wrist surgery. Green is the next best long term solution at 3B with Lawrie playing 2B now. Information on Shoulder Impingement I don't like the diagnosis because many sites that talk about the injury discuss the possibility of rotator cuff tears.

I agree with everyone who's talked about the best bat possible theory, it doesn't appear that you can teach someone to hit, and if they aren't able to hit, they don't have a future. I realize that an arm and speed isn't coachable either, but I think they can draft bats and focus more on defensive improvement in the minors. Most players know their bat is the ticket and have said as much in interviews, but I'd like the organization to put more focus on defensive development and injury prevention.

I got that you were exaggerating for effect, however you have a history of bashing Salome including saying that his arm was "average at best". You're certainly entitled to your opinion but to continually stretch the facts for effect is a disservice to the young man. As for tools he has a cannon for an arm, can hit for average, and can hit for power. He's a legit 3 tool prospect now and with a little work could be a legit 4 tool prospect if he cleans up his defense. To me the Hit tools are the biggest deal so there's reason to be optimistic about him. The size and projectability comment are one in the same, not 2 separate knocks against him, he's not projectable because he's short... fine everyone gets that. However when a player makes the biggest jump besides the jump to MLB and tears it up, he's certainly deserving of a little love. To dismiss his accomplishments because he's short isn't justice, it's bigotry. Lucroy is the better catching prospect today, but Salome has the higher ceiling as a player. There is a fine line here between realism and trashing players when discussing prospects because their former coaches and family members read the forum which many of us have learned the hard way. Southern League Batting Leaders by Season YR Player Age Tm Lg Lvl Aff G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS| PA Out RC RC/G Pos +---+--------------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+--+----+---+---+------+---+ 08 Angel Salome 22 HVL SOU AA MIL 98 367 67 132 30 2 13 83 33 57 .360 .415 .559 .974 3 2| 411 256 83 8.59 07 Josh Kroeger 24 TEN SOU AA CHC 66 225 40 86 14 2 11 50 27 35 .382 .449 .609 1.058 8 3| 256 149 62 11.03 OF 06 Luis Montanez 24 WTN SOU AA CHC 38 141 24 52 11 0 2 25 15 26 .369 .438 .489 .927 5 3| 162 97 31 8.47 OF 05 Matt Murton 23 WTN SOU AA CHC 78 313 46 107 17 4 8 46 29 42 .342 .403 .498 .901 18 5| 350 226 62 7.27 OF 05 Justin Ruggiano 23 JAX SOU AA LAD 53 161 23 55 10 1 6 29 17 56 .342 .422 .528 .950 8 3| 185 111 38 9.07 OF 04 Bobby Darula 29 CNG SOU AA CIN 48 153 38 56 8 0 6 27 16 16 .366 .426 .536 .962 8 2| 169 99 36 9.27 OF 04 Napoleon Calzado 27 GRV SOU AA ATL 119 449 68 161 28 7 8 59 22 59 .359 .389 .506 .895 18 8| 471 296 88 7.58 OF 03 Jeremy Reed 22 BIR SOU AA CHW 66 242 51 99 17 3 7 43 29 19 .409 .472 .591 1.063 18 13| 271 156 65 10.62 OF 03 Matt Diaz 25 ORL SOU AA TBD 60 227 32 87 21 0 5 41 19 24 .383 .431 .542 .973 9 5| 246 145 53 9.32 OF 03 Miguel Cabrera 20 CAR SOU AA FLA 69 266 46 97 29 3 10 59 31 49 .365 .431 .609 1.040 9 4| 297 173 70 10.32 3B 02 Bobby Darula 27 CNG SOU AA CIN 96 323 48 105 17 4 4 36 43 27 .325 .404 .440 .844 10 3| 366 221 58 6.69 OF 01 Wilson Betemit 19 GRV SOU AA ATL 47 183 22 65 14 0 5 19 12 36 .355 .395 .514 .909 6 2| 195 120 37 7.86 SS 01 Adam Dunn 21 CNG SOU AA CIN 39 140 30 48 9 0 12 31 24 31 .343 .439 .664 1.103 6 3| 164 95 41 11.01 OF 01 Jim Rushford 27 HVL SOU AA MIL 57 187 35 64 16 1 7 30 23 22 .342 .414 .551 .965 3 2| 210 125 42 8.57 OF 00 Chris Saunders 29 CNG SOU AA CIN 61 200 30 70 15 1 9 37 28 53 .350 .430 .570 1.000 1 6| 228 136 46 8.62 1B 00 Toby Hall 24 ORL SOU AA TBD 68 271 37 93 14 0 9 50 17 24 .343 .382 .494 .876 3 2| 288 180 51 7.22 C [/pre] Players his age just don't put up those kinds of numbers over a similar number of PAs. You might not like him as a prospect, but his season was certainly noteworthy, especially considering the position he plays. (edit: added scroll to wide table --1992)

While you're entitled to your opinion there's simply no way he's as slow as you make him out to be given his pre draft 60 time. Some proof of a current 60 time would be appreciated, as given coach32sm's comments I think we're all curious to see where Angel stands speed wise. I said it last year, all year, and I'll keep saying it, there is no way Salome isn't a top 100 prospect. Say what you want about his defense, I won't defend him there, but his bat will play, he's easily one of the top 40 hitters in MiLB. He just doesn't get any love from BA what so ever, and never has... he got what? 1 whole mention in the hot sheet last year? Who was a hotter hitter than him? He batted over .350 in AA for goodness sakes, in a traditional pitcher's league. The hot sheet has nothing to do with defense and never has, they just have a bias towards him.