Pardon me for not reading back but did someone really argue that he has a 100% chance of being good for 3 years or are you arguing against a strawman? Every year, pitchers lose velocity and as a result, effectiveness. I don't believe any aging curve suggests batters or pitchers should be expected to just fall apart, however. It happens, sure, but on average, they just fade each year. That's what I quoted. And to be clear I never said he was going to fall apart but when splitter says he doesn't want to hear any more about Suppan or Looper after 3 starts, it looks pretty ridiculous so I went back and looked and Suppan and Looper both had 3 pretty good starts to start their Brewers career too.