This is by far my favorite line that is currently used on this site. Please, point to one post, just one where somebody said they expect him to hit 50 homers this year. The problem is, that his SLG% this year is 13th amongst qualified 1st basemen, 10th amongst qualified 1st basemen in OBP and 9th amongst qualified 1st basemen in OPS. With his defensive "abilites" he needs to hit more than that to gain value, which is why this argument is being made.