XBH% - Fluctuation and Maintainability

[sbrylski]

Bill Hall had an outstanding XBH% last year. How well do players tend to maintain that from year to year?

 

I'd imagine that any given players XBH% would fluctuate a fair amount from year to year, though obviously players carry varying career XBH%.

 

Could this be somewhat of an indicator that Hall may have overachieved slightly last season?

[rluzinski]

Hall keeps proving me wrong over and over, so I make no more predictions of a downfall.

 

XBH% is proportional to isolated power, right (basically the same thing). Here's the list of NL players with the most extra base hits:

 

LINK

 

Bill Hall can best Chuck Norris, so it looks good to me.

[sbrylski]

So essentially you are saying XBH% is fairly consistent if you have the talent, right?

[rluzinski]

Will, it's just SLG - BA and I don't see anything TOO crazy about Hall's numbers. Nothing that screams outlier or anything. Obviously, it's very good but I have come to realize that Hall is a very good player, power wise.

[1992casey]

XBH% would count all extra base hits equally. Isolated power weighs them.

[rluzinski]

This is true.

 

2B/HR Ratio, 2006

 

Hall: 1.1

NL: 1.7

 

That's kind of weird too.

[mothershipconnection]

Hall: 1.1

NL: 1.7

 

That's kind of weird too.

Intuitively, it doesn't seem weird because there are a lot of players who have the ability to hit doubles but not homers (Pierre), while there aren't guys who hit homers like Hall but can't hit doubles, so that would skew the average performance.

[rluzinski]

Can't you just let me spend 5 minutes making flawed observations? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Since I looked it up, here's the most severe 2B/HR ratios from 2006 (min. 400 AB):

 

F. Thomas: .28

Howard: .43

 

Kendall: 23

Puntos: 21

[TooLiveBrew]

When I asked about XBH%, I found the responses made it very clear that ISP is slightly better in order to evaluate.

 

I see the value in XBH%, but ISP makes it sharper

[sbrylski]

I see the value in XBH%, but ISP makes it sharper

 

But they tell you slightly different things.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes, they do. But what I found that made me lean towards ISP is that simply finding a player's XBH% doesn't necessarily incorporate his power (obviously). That's not to say there isn't value in a guy like Overbay's great XBH%.

 

However, it's only fair (to both players) to note that a guy like Pujols, who may not (don't have time to stat-check, sorry) have as high an XBH% as Overbay (or Hall), has a more impressive ISP.

 

What I, personally, was looking for in asking about XBH% was precisely what's captured in ISP. But, as mentioned, XBH% is a useful stat, too -- highlighting the strong value of a doubles hitter that may not crush out HRs (it shows you how valuable all XBHs are, not just the chick-diggable long ball)

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[sbrylski]

ISP definately tells you more about the worth of the batter, yes.

[TooLiveBrew]

fwiw, Bill Hall's 2B/HR ratio as of today (after the game), is 2.69. Also, his ISP this year is .180 - not bad, especially considering that by any objective account, he's struggled in 2007. Looking up for 2008, I'd have to speculate. Am I wrong?