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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I'm not sure posting career splits qualifies as sample size hunting. If you think the change in his pitching repertoire caused the split reduction, I won't argue with you because I have no idea. All I know is one year sample splits are statistically worthless.
  2. rluzinski
    Your point seemed to be that some worry is warranted becomes teams come back all the time down 2-0 in 7 games series. You seem to not be saying that now, but I have no idea how to parse your previous post to come to any other conclusion. And yes, when looking at 30 teams over the course of 162 games, many will lose 3 games in a row. This is the wrong way to look at it, however. I gave you the odds of two teams with even winning odds/per game, losing or winning 3 games in a row. 12.5% ain't never. As I said before, worry about what you want, but the odds are the odds.
  3. rluzinski
    Statistically speaking, a small sample size like that can not begin to prove a reverse split. His career splits show us exactly what we would expect: vs RHB: 0.685 OPS (2618 PA) vs. LHB: 0.742 OPS (2510 PA)
  4. rluzinski
    And they would come back even more often if it was a 9 game series. The limited length of this series is WHY coming back 2-0 would be difficult for the Cubs. It is certainly still doable, however. They basically need to flip heads three times in a row: 50% x 50% X 50% = 12.5% (pretty close to the odds that Fangraphs gives them). If the Cubs win tonight, their odds roughly double, to around 25%. I would love nothing more for the Brewers to finish this up today, but I also won't be freaking out if they lose. Of course, everyone is welcome to freak out at whatever percentages they want to!
  5. rluzinski
    BaseballProspectus projects that the Brewers will play .500 the rest of the way, takes into account the Cubs talent and easy schedule, and still gives the Brewers a 91.6% chance of winning the division. Fangraphs 95.7%. If the Brewers go 11-11, it's 99+%
  6. rluzinski
    This is like using an anecdote of an inning ending double play with the bases loaded, as proof that in-play outs are worse than strikeouts. You are misrepresenting their argument, which is based on aggregate data.
  7. rluzinski
    I bought mine the day after they lost the 12th game this year. Not in my wildest dreams did I think I would be wearing it this soon with a chance for #12 again.
  8. rluzinski
    I have no idea how ESPN compiles that list but I do not think it is outrageous that the Brewers do not have a player in the top 50. Just looking at fWAR for pitchers, the top Brewer is Freddy at 29th (2.3 WAR). For position players, Contreras is at 40th (3.0 WAR). Overall, there are 55 players with an fWAR of 3.0 or higher. The team as a whole has excellent metrics all over the place, but it is because have just been solid from top to almost bottom.
  9. rluzinski
    You can also reach base on a strikeout. 😉 https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/opponent-errors-per-game
  10. rluzinski
    You can make as much money managing a KFC as being a hitting coach in the majors. That is how much they are valued by their employers. Their biggest utility is giving certain baseball fans someone to blame. I am also certain that a new owner will result in the smallest market team in the majors having a $200 mil yearly payroll. Again, I am as pissed as anyone to see a solid 162 game season end with 2 bad games. But must we always have to just start throwing darts at the wall, to find an outlet for our pain? See you all next year!
  11. rluzinski
    Jesus *****.
  12. rluzinski
    I agree. If we just fire Haynes, it will all be fixed. These guys get paid peanuts because they are basically irrelevant. Look somewhere else to focus your angst.
  13. rluzinski
    I'm as pissed as anyone but yeh, these responses are pretty silly. Blaming hitting coaches at this point is just cringe
  14. rluzinski
    Normally true, but not with our offense and the Braves and Dodgers looming. Brewers had maybe a 1 in 10 shot of making the WS before the injury. Anything can happen but this stinks.
  15. rluzinski
    Turang's OPS back under .600. Plenty of reason to think he will improve offensively but not many positives to take away from his stick this year.
  16. rluzinski
    Wild to see 6 guys in the lineup with a BA below .225. Don't usually see something like that, unless it is the first week of the season.
  17. rluzinski
    There are all very reasonable lines. -115 is basically a coin flip. Brewers are on the road and the Cubs offense has been tons better this year.
  18. rluzinski
    His has been studied to death. That's because the organization understands that reverse splits are mostly a statistical mirage. You need a huge sample to tell you anything.
  19. rluzinski
    Doesn't look like he has lost any velo on his fastball yet, so no obvious signs of him fatiguing.
  20. rluzinski
    Nice start!
  21. rluzinski
    ROS ZiPS Projection: Tallion: 4.27 ERA Miley: 4.25 ERA
  22. rluzinski
    1 run is the mostly likely outcome there, so it is the most MLB thing to do.
  23. rluzinski
    I'll let AI do the work: In Milwaukee's realm, the Brewers shine so bright, Their victories are a symphony of might. With every swing, they claim the field, Their dominance and power are truly revealed. But alas, up north, the Twins do wallow, Their efforts feeble, their hopes so shallow. A sorry sight, a team adrift, In the Brewers' shadow, they struggle to lift. The Brewers' glory, a dazzling display, Their prowess leaves the Twins in dismay. A champion's spirit courses through their veins, While the Twins' failures persist like chains. So let the world know of the Brewers' fame, Their excellence in every single game. As for the Twins, well, what can I say? Their struggles continue, day by day.
  24. rluzinski
    I had mostly retired from the message boards. Moved away from Milwaukee 4 years ago, however, so missing Brewer conversations. Also a little more interesting this year, with the influx of prospects on the team. I've never been a minor league rat, like some Brewer fans, so interesting to learn about them. Just wish they were doing better!
  25. rluzinski
    A 22 game sample over 5 years is basically irrelevant. Today is a more or less a coin flip game and the Brewers are favorites tomorrow (-142). For the series: Brewers win: 0: 22% 1: 49% 2: 29%
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