While not infallible by any stretch, FanGraphs' $ values help put some perspective on what investing in Harper may mean. Even with a down 2016, missing a good chunk of 2017, & a bad first half of 2018, his average $ value over the past 4 seasons was $41mm. For the past 3 years (if you want to treat his insane 2015 as an outlier for the sake of discussion), it was $29.9mm. So even just looking at a stretch that includes two or three problematic seasons -- addressing the point about risk in investing $30mm/yr -- he's generally produced that amount annually. And -- not saying you're stating we should ignore his huge upside like 2015 -- in his case I don't think it's wise to dismiss the talent & huge upside as outliers. For all the valid concerns about consistency & durability, I think you can make an argument that he is easily worth a $30mm/yr salary. Which seems crazy, but actually looks reasonable imo. There's risk like any long term deal - even a more team friendly one like Braun's. But if I'm Harper, there is no way I'm letting suitors tell me I'm not worth $30mm a year.