2022 Projections Thread

[sveumrules]

Yelich's 126 OPS+ projection pretty much splitting his Marlins (121 OPS+) and career (132 OPS+) marks down the middle. Obviously not MVP calibre stuff, but even a return to just being an above average OF would be a big boost from the last two years.

 

Still think they bring in at least one more bat via FA or trade once the CBA is sorted & probably sign a couple low dollar free agent pitchers in the Anderson/Boxberger vein.

 

At this point it looks like the 2022 NLC is going to be MIL/STL in the contender tier, CHI/CIN in the pretender tier & PIT in the surrender tier.

[umphrey]

Wow, Urias as our best position player?

[sveumrules]

Wow, Urias as our best position player?

 

Urias at 3.0 & Adames at 2.9, so just barely.

 

The computer probably isn't programmed to suss out Willy's unique home/road splits at the Trop, so he's a good bet to sail past his 256/328/452 projection

 

TB home | 626 PAs | 219/277/347

TB road | 628 PAs | 291/363/495

Brewers | 413 PAs | 285/366/521

[sveumrules]

At this point it looks like the 2022 NLC is going to be MIL/STL in the contender tier, CHI/CIN in the pretender tier & PIT in the surrender tier.

 

FanGraphs published the Lockout Projected ZiPS Standings for the National League today as kind of a snapshot of how the teams stack up before the offseason eventually resumes & it looks like they've got the same tiers for the NLC...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-national-league-edition/

[sveumrules]

& here is the American League version...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-american-league-edition/

 

ALE looks pretty competitive again with NY (90 wins), TOR (89) and TB (88) tight at the top & BOS (83) lurking. And, hey, who knows, maybe Baltimore won't lose 108+ games for the third full season in a row?

 

Barring some big moves by teams two through five in the ALC & ALW it looks like CHW & HOU should be pretty heavy favorites for their divisions.

[umphrey]

I would think Toronto is itching to go all in with some win now moves. That division has 4 playoff caliber teams in it (although Boston does look like they are fading away).

[Opening Day]

Small as our #6 right out of the gate?

 

*nah*

I think it is Ashby right now. But if they can get a bat for Houser or Lauer, then I could see them giving Small that role.

[Lathund]

The preliminary PECOTA projections are out. With the usual Lockout caveats, that rosters will change a lot etc. But still they are quite something.

 

Brewers 97

Reds 81

Cardinals 77

Pirates 70

Cubs 68

 

I'm someone who believes the Brewers are the best team in the division, and that the Cardinals pitching needs a lot of help, but even I am not *that* high on them. But I like it.

[Lathund]

Also just noticed that Clay Davenport published his a few weeks ago. That one is in a similar vein, with 94 wins for the Brewers and Cardinals below .500

 

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

[TURBO]

The Cardinals will be a lot better than those projections.

 

They will cause us problems, you can count on that.

[MVP2110]

Pretty incredible that PECOTA has the Brewers with the most projected wins in MLB. I know that will probably change after the Dodgers sign 3 more all stars and that part of it is our division flat out stinks but that's still pretty cool

[BrewCrewForever]

The Cardinals will be a lot better than those projections.

 

They will cause us problems, you can count on that.

 

No doubt, it happens every year. They always find a way. They will scare me each and every year, forever.

[brewmann04]

Cards always give us trouble

[TheAnalytics]

FG Playoff Odds were released today - combining their custom depth charts and a blend of ZiPS and Steamer projection systems. 
 

They give the Brewers 91 wins and a 73% chance of winning the division (86% chance overall to make the playoffs)

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, TheAnalytics said:

FG Playoff Odds were released today - combining their custom depth charts and a blend of ZiPS and Steamer projection systems. 
 

They give the Brewers 91 wins and a 73% chance of winning the division (86% chance overall to make the playoffs)

Thanks for posting that link.  I believe that was pre-Cutch signing so that's a nice firm 91-92 wins.  That's the best division winning % in the NL, Plus they're at 7.6% chance for winning the World Series!  Yeah Baby, I like those odds. After 50+ years we need a few balls to bounce in our favor. 

[TheAnalytics]

16 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Thanks for posting that link.  I believe that was pre-Cutch signing so that's a nice firm 91-92 wins.  That's the best division winning % in the NL, Plus they're at 7.6% chance for winning the World Series!  Yeah Baby, I like those odds. After 50+ years we need a few balls to bounce in our favor. 

These are a little more reasonable than the PECOTA projections to me. Still, if you took an even blend of ZiPS/Steamer/PECOTA you’d probably get the best forecast possible. That would be something like 92 wins, 80% chance of winning the division, and 8% chance of winning the World Series. Plus, there’s no reason to think that the eye test doesn’t hold up to those. The team is solid to great. 
 

What a time to be a Brewers fan!

[sveumrules]

Maybe it’s Stockholm Syndrome or whatever after years of abuse, but I’m probably a little higher on the Cardinals than the computers are.

Either way, there was no realistic combination of moves that could vault us up into that Dodgers tier, so being solidly in the second tier of legit contenders with ATL & NYM is a much better spot than most NL clubs will be starting in.

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs has started rolling out their 2022 Positional Power Rankings, with the Brewers catchers checking in at 25th...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

Brewers backstops ranked 4th in WAR last year, 8th in 2020 & have been 3rd in WAR during the Stearns era so I'll take the over. 

[wallus]

Seems awfully pessimistic for the Brewers catching duo. I think they will be more in the middle of the pack when it is all said and done.

[BallFour]

They are completely selling Narvaez short with his defense. He has done nothing but produce defensively since he has come to this organization. I know that is only a season plus 60 games. During his time as a Brewer he is 3rd in fWAR defensive catcher value. This projects him to be 23rd in fWAR defensive catcher value. Barring injury find it hard to believe he would fall that hard in defensive value.

We will see if Severino can improve with the glove, I am skeptical with the shortened spring training. Find it interesting see Payton Henry as the projected backup catcher in Miami and out producing Severino's WAR although both are barely above replacement. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

10 hours ago, BallFour said:

We will see if Severino can improve with the glove, I am skeptical with the shortened spring training. Find it interesting see Payton Henry as the projected backup catcher in Miami and out producing Severino's WAR although both are barely above replacement. 

I'm interested in seeing how Severino does as the short side of a platoon, basically only facing lefties. He has power. He was miscast as the Orioles #1 catcher last year, but I don't think he's a bad guy to have around. Obviously not going to give you near the defense that Manny provided, but I think he'll be better offensively.

[BallFour]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I'm interested in seeing how Severino does as the short side of a platoon, basically only facing lefties. He has power. He was miscast as the Orioles #1 catcher last year, but I don't think he's a bad guy to have around. Obviously not going to give you near the defense that Manny provided, but I think he'll be better offensively.

Great point about facing lefties. That is probably something that the projection isn't picking up well. Maybe I am being too harsh on his defense since it did have positive value in his brief time in Washington and abruptly switched to negative after joining a team that loses 100+ games a year. 

All that to say I like my chances of the Brewers finishing closer to 10th in catcher WAR than the 25th place projection.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

7 minutes ago, BallFour said:

Great point about facing lefties. That is probably something that the projection isn't picking up well. Maybe I am being too harsh on his defense since it did have positive value in his brief time in Washington and abruptly switched to negative after joining a team that loses 100+ games a year. 

All that to say I like my chances of the Brewers finishing closer to 10th in catcher WAR than the 25th place projection.

Oh without a doubt. Obviously I'm biased, but Fangraphs has seemingly had a bias against Brewers players for years. Perhaps they have a Cubs fan on their staff? LOL

[sveumrules]

FG’s 2022 PPRs continue with 1B  & the Brewers checking in at 26th…

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-first-base/

This probably feels about right after the last couple years of 1B “production” (96 wRC+ & 0.3 WAR, both 25th among MLB 1B from 2020-21)  but it hasn’t always been that way.

From 2016-18 Brewers 1B posted a 124 wRC+ (5th) & 7.5 WAR (10th), pretty remarkable results for a group headlined by Chris Carter, Eric Thames & Jesus Aguilar.

Things started slipping in 2019 when Aguilar forgot how to hit for four months, though Thames still had a nice year. A combined 107 wRC+ & 1.7 WAR each ranked 15th among MLB 1B.

I’d like to think Rowdy (with maybe a lil help from Keston) can at least get those numbers back up to 2019 levels, even average production from 1B would net us a couple win improvement over last year.

[sveumrules]

23 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Oh without a doubt. Obviously I'm biased, but Fangraphs has seemingly had a bias against Brewers players for years. Perhaps they have a Cubs fan on their staff? LOL

These rankings are based on the projections, the only human element is splitting up the playing time.

FG staff has actually been pretty optimistic on the Brewers recently, even though Clemens is a Cardinals fan. They had us 26-2 over the Braves last year in the DS (whoops) even though the FG computers were at a 53.5/46.5 split.