Article: You Can't Spell Compete Without Pete, but There is An L in Strzelecki

[Matthew Trueblood]

In a frustrating series finale, the Brewers let a lead slip away late, and the winning blow came against Peter Strzelecki. It's been a bit of a rough stretch for Craig Counsell's proudest underdog and versatile relief weapon, but Thursday's outing only represented some bad luck. Sometimes, it's the other team's day.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The decisive home run Gunnar Henderson hit against Peter Strzelecki was not a cheapie. It wasn't a product of Miller Park. On the contrary, Henderson hit it to the corner, where only Wrigley Field steals away more homers than does the Brewers' home. Just as importantly, Henderson wasn't teeing off on a meatball, but anticipating and reaching for a first-pitch fastball up and away from him. It was about letter-high, running off the outside edge, and it hummed in at 93.5 miles per hour, above Strzelecki's norm. Henderson just got the barrel to it, which was a little bit lucky, and then got a little bit luckier still that it carried out of the park. The ball was well-struck, but significantly less so than most home runs, especially to the opposite field. It only left his bat at 97.9 miles per hour. 

Does that mean that Strzelecki's tough outing was purely bad luck? No. Does it mean he executed the pitch correctly on 0-0? No. Does it invalidate the fact that Strzelecki has taken a small step backward after a much-needed hot start to the season? No. It's just a reminder that, sometimes, you lose. Even when playing a bad team, in MLB, there are plenty of good and dangerous players in the opposing dugout. Against a team like the Orioles, there are even more of them, and they pose even greater risk of simply beating you, even if you do everything right.

In fact, Strzelecki looked good throughout his appearance, except in a couple of small ways, and notwithstanding the results. His velocity was up. His slider had good movement, though not his best command. His changeup also had good action. On all of his offerings, he was just a bit less able than he usually is to steer the ball down in and even below the zone. That begat some problems. Still, he induced five swinging strikes and four called ones. He got three strikeouts and didn't issue a walk. Baltimore batters just found the good part of the wood, or the friendly part of the infield grass. 

Thursday's outing bloated Strzelecki's season ERA to 4.40 and pushed his Win Probability Added (the best way to measure the value a reliever has provided, although an imperfect one for any kind of forward-looking analysis) to the wrong side of 0.00. He's definitely posed a genuine concern at certain points this season--for instance, early on, when he was getting great results but relying heavily on his defense and missing some of the velocity he showed last year. While it was much more than mere lousy luck, though, this latest implosion isn't a sign that Strzelecki's most dangerous chickens are coming home to roost. On the contrary, his stuff looks good. It might even be ticking up as the weather warms. He just needs a little bit better location next time he takes the mound, and to have his opponent execute a bit less well than the Orioles just did.

View full article

[WV Brew]

It seems to me that he is throwing much more sidearm than in the past.  This has had the effect, if true, of flattening out his slider, which is his only plus pitch.  The fastball and changeup are really below average major league quality.  His slider, for whatever reason, is not doing what it had done in the past.  Smaller horizontal break with less depth.  Tell me I'm wrong.

[Playing Catch]

Okay, are we just gunna sit here and not point out that this might be the early-season leader for the 1st annual, "Article Title of the Year Award"?