Better Days Should Lie Ahead for Hoby Milner

[Jack Stern]

One of the Brewers' most dependable bullpen arms has endured a horrid five-week stretch, but looking past the results reveals he's closer to getting on track than one might assume.

Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Hoby Milner has allowed 13 runs in his last 11 ⅔ innings of work, inflating his season ERA to 4.81. Opponents have scored in eight of his 12 appearances during that stretch.

In his latest appearance on Friday night, Milner surrendered a run in two innings. The first inning of that outing epitomized the veteran southpaw’s performance over the past month: not his best, but also snake-bitten.

Milner walked No. 9 hitter Jacob Young to begin the inning, a no-no for any pitcher, particularly a reliever working late in games. He did his job after that, recording a strikeout and inducing two weakly-hit batted balls. Young advanced on both plays, though, moving up to second on a tapper back to Milner and scoring on a 70-mph bloop single that landed in front of a conservative Garrett Mitchell in center field.

During this rough patch, Milner has not quite been the same as last year. His game is predicated on deception and command on the edges of the zone. Milner has been among the best in baseball at living on the edges. According to Statcast, he's thrown just 23.1% of his pitches in the heart of the strike zone since the start of the 2022 season, the 24th-lowest rate among 338 pitchers to throw at least 2,000 pitches during that span. His sinker has caught that heart zone a lot more in recent weeks, though.

Avoiding line drives is crucial for Milner. Due to throwing more sinkers over the white of the plate, his line drive rate has jumped from 19.5% through June 8 to 25% since.

He’s not far from his previous form, though. Most of Milner’s underlying metrics for the season align with those of 2022 and 2023. His rate-based performance has been essentially the same.

The numbers point to poor luck for Milner this year and especially cruel fortune during this nightmarish stretch.

In these last 12 outings, he’s posted a 10.03 ERA but a more palatable 3.94 FIP. His strikeout (22.2%) and walk (3.7%) rates have remained at their norms. His average exit velocity (87 mph) and hard-hit rate (37.5%) allowed have increased, but not nearly enough to support the .447 BABIP he’s endured. Milner is also suffering from a 44% strand rate, meaning any runner he’s put on base has been more likely to score than not.

The only way these numbers could be considered fair luck is if Milner allowed a steady stream of rockets. That hasn’t been the case. His execution has not been the greatest, but he’s not getting hit hard.

Here are a few specific instances of the baseball gods frowning upon Milner. All of these hits left the bat at 87 mph or less, and all but one were under 84 mph.

First is this Jake Cronenworth jam shot that rolls past the shaded infield to drive in a run.

Here’s Milner successfully executing a pitch inside to Spencer Horwitz and getting his ground ball, only for it to squeak through the right side. Once again, it scored a run.

Milner inherited a bases-loaded jam in Detroit in early June. Going for the strikeout, he threw a 1-2 sweeper away from Zach McKinstry in the other batter’s box. McKinstry stuck his bat out for a half-swing bloop single.

The most recent bad break occurred when Milner again entered with the bases loaded against the Dodgers. He froze Freddie Freeman with a fastball on the black that should have been strike three, but the pitch was called ball two. Milner followed with a sweeper below the zone away, and Freeman shot a soft grounder for a base hit.

This is a classic case of trusting the process over results in smaller samples. There’s room for Milner to tighten up his command, but his stuff is still producing the kind of swings that made him one of baseball’s most reliable middle relievers for two years.

The margins are thin for a funky soft-tosser like Milner. Legitimate struggles will follow if his command regresses even further. If he continues to throw the ball the way he has for much of the season, expect his results to even out. At this moment, he’s closer to the latter playing out.

View full article