Inability to Steal First Base Stalling Out Brewers Attack

[Matthew Trueblood]

Briefly, it looked like Pat Murphy's team had broken out and become the most dangerous team in the league on the basepaths. Alas, in the wake of a key injury and amid some struggles from their young hitters, that spark has died.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

In the last 30 days, the Brewers are 10th in MLB in stolen base attempts. They've tried to steal 26 bases, and they've been caught on six of those attempts. Prior to Jul. 7, they were 121-for-143 stealing bases, so both their frequency of attempts and their success rate have sagged over the last month. Part of that, to be sure, is the loss of Christian Yelich, the on-base machine who also boasts 21 steals in 22 tries during his periods of good health this year.

Even when the Brewers who do get on base get there, though, they're running less often. They were baseball's most aggressive team for a period of about six weeks, but they're 11th in Go Rate (the percentage of plate appearances qualifying as a stolen base opportunity in which they attempted a steal) over the last month. That can't be explained away by Yelich's absence. Rather, it's about who's reaching base for them--and who isn't.

The four players who have reached base enough to cause some havoc there--who have at least 30 stolen base opportunities in these 30 days--are William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, Willy Adames, and Sal Frelick. Contreras and Adames have combined for just two attempts, both by Adames, which makes plenty of sense. Chourio and Frelick are a combined 6-for-8 on steal attempts in their chances, and at other times, we might expect them to be a hair more aggressive. For the most part, though, they've contributed enough.

Brice Turang, however, has a .212 OBP in 81 plate appearances over this span. In 69 trips to the plate, Joey Ortiz has a .232 mark. Ortiz is only 6-for-10 when he does attempt steals this year, but he has the athleticism to make thefts an option, when he's on base. Alas, lately, neither he nor Turang have been on base, so they can't power this aspect of the Milwaukee offense.

This is the time of year when teams often draw up the reins on the running game a bit, anyway. The grind of the season and the gathering heat of August make it a good time to restrain runners, to promote better health down the stretch. It's also a time when power can play up, because of that same heat, so it makes a bit more sense to lean on the sluggers and be less daring.

Unfortunately, the Brewers don't have a strong power dimension in their lineup right now. Because he continues to struggle to get on base at his previously customary rate, Rhys Hoskins remains mired in the lower half of the batting order, and he's been the only consistent source of good power over the last month, save Chourio. The team sorely misses both Yelich's speed and his power. They can't afford to rush him back from his back injury, though, so it's incumbent upon the rest of the team's position players to rediscover whichever element they were in charge of contributing: a power stroke, or a disruptive, speedy presence on the bases.

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