After Mixed Results in a Losing Homestand, How Does the Brewers' Offense Profile Against Left-Handed Pitching?

[Jack Stern]

Pat Murphy alluded multiple times within the last week to a perceived struggle against southpaws, but the current iteration of his righty-heavy lineup has enough reliable pieces to hold its own in such matchups.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

After his offense recorded 23 consecutive outs in the closing contest of a lackluster six-game homestand, Pat Murphy began his postgame remarks to the media with a frank assessment.

“That’s not good.”

Four Colorado Rockies arms combined to hold the Brewers to a single unearned run, but it was southpaw starter Kyle Freeland who set the tone in his six innings of work. That stood out to Murphy, who two days prior called left-handed starters his team’s “nemesis.”

“Against left-handed pitching, we haven’t been great,” Murphy said after Freeland stymied Milwaukee’s lineup.

In reality, the Brewers have been competent against left-handed pitching this year, after a three-year stretch of significant struggles. From 2021 through 2023, Milwaukee mustered a 93 wRC+ against lefthanders. That figure is up to a slightly above-average 103 this year.

Recent showings arguably ought to allay anyone's concerns about the team handling lefties, rather than exacerbate them. The evening before Freeland’s dominance, the Brewers dinged left-hander Ty Blach for five earned runs, including three homers. They hit two long balls against Steven Matz earlier in the week, and knocked him out of the game in the fifth inning.

In the interest of projecting how the Brewers stack up against southpaws the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs, here’s a more detailed breakdown of how their roster has fared against them (minimum 75 plate appearances).

Player	PA	wRC+	wOBA	xwOBA
Willy Adames	153	82	.286	.313
William Contreras	146	144	.376	.331
Jackson Chourio	141	95	.305	.310
Joey Ortiz	128	122	.344	.350
Blake Perkins	125	106	.322	.276
Rhys Hoskins	109	91	.299	.321
Brice Turang	100	72	.272	.276
Christian Yelich	99	153	.391	.340
Gary Sánchez	95	103	.315	.357
Sal Frelick	76	88	.295	.250

There are some caveats to note here. Christian Yelich’s absence due to season-ending surgery weakens the lineup, regardless of the matchup. While Blake Perkins has enjoyed solid results, his quality of contact does not support a good deal of that production.

On the flip side, two hitters likely profile better than indicated by their results to date.

Given his known talent level and sustained post-May breakout, it’s not fair to evaluate Jackson Chourio by his season-long numbers. Since the start of June, he has posted an improved .315/.357/.435 line (117 wRC+) against southpaws.

Gary Sánchez currently sports a solid but unspectacular line against lefties, but he did his best work against them in two of his previous three seasons and has looked close to that form this year. Sánchez’s batted balls against lefties have an average exit velocity of 93.6 mph, and 52.3% of them have been hard-hit.

It’s hardly the most potent collection of bats, but the Brewers have a solid core that should position them to compete against lefthanders. Chourio, Sánchez, William Contreras, and Joey Ortiz all profile as reliable bats in such matchups, leaving this year’s lineup with a higher floor than those often overpowered by lefties in years past. Hitting southpaws is not this club’s greatest strength, but it is not a glaring weakness, either.

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