The Milwaukee Brewers Signed Elvin Rodriguez As Their First Free Agent Of The Offseason

[Jake McKibbin]

Elvin Rodriguez threw 88 innings in Japan's NPB in 2024 recording a 1.74 ERA in 88 innings but with just 73 strikeouts. Deployed out of the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever for Yakult, can the Brewers fashion yet another weapon in relief?

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

Elvin Rodriguez is the type of arm who can light up a stuff+ model but has struggled to put it all together as a pitcher. His four-seam fastball is delivered from a 5'9" release height with a three-quarter slot and reached over 20 inches of an induced vertical break in a small sample size in 2023 with the Rays. That led all of baseball for IVB in 2023, and to do so without cheating to a high arm slot makes it a strong outlier pitch.

He only had one appearance in the major leagues, going 3 1/3 innings, but you can see from his data in the minor leagues that his pitch mix looked considerably more balanced. Rodriguez's fastball gets a lot of plaudits for an outlier showing in his one major league appearance in 2023 (although it is still a strong primary offering). Still, it's the rest of his arsenal that should have you intrigued. He exchanged his gyro slider for more of a sweeper and was getting more horizontal breaks on his changeup, and as you can see, the TJstuff+ metrics really liked what they saw regarding his slider and changeup.

Rodriguez also added in a cutter in 2023 that graded out well. Despite not using it a lot, the 50% whiff rate on the cutter and slider is quite absurd, and even when hitters did make contact, it wasn't anything that would create a lot of damage.

Rodriguez took another step forward in 2024 in the NPB, reducing his fastball to a mere 50% while factoring in a knuckle curveball (15%), slider (13.1%), cutter (9.3%) and changeup (8.4%) to create a balanced array of pitches. TJstuff+ gives four of those five a positive rating, while he does throw a sinker in now and then to right-handers, which makes it a six-pitch mix overall.

The Brewers love large arsenals to mold, and Rodriguez's raw movement profiles should give them plenty to work with. His cutter didn't perform well in Japan, getting hit hard and aerially with regularity, but this could be because of his location. Rodriguez was using it heavily in the upper third of the zone, which works for some cutters, but without much induced vertical break, it proved a recipe for disaster. His fastball generated sufficient swing and miss but wasn't quite the dominant offering you would hope for, given the review over its outlier shape.

Instead, it was the curveball and slider that carried him. Rodriguez's knuckle curve had a 68% ground ball rate last season, not missing bats but creating a ton of weak contact, as did the changeup. When he wanted to swing and miss (mainly to right-handers), he uncorked a slider with a phenomenal 44% whiff rate in 2024.

Rodriguez did struggle to miss bats consistently to left-handers, although the four-seamer and knuckle curveball did solidly in this regard. The sheer size of his arsenal, all of which he commands well if slightly predictably, will allow him to have success in a multi-inning role for the Brewers, but at this point, he's more likely to mop up innings in low-leverage spots unless the Brewers can really tap into a mix of his arsenal that enhances it's all round efficacy. High leverage will require more significant strikeout numbers, but there is certainly enough to work with here from the Brewers' vantage so that you can see a path to that sort of success.

To create room on their 40-man roster, the Brewers DFA'd JB Bukauskus, who showed good promise in 2024 at times and seemed like a reliable arm with an option year remaining. Given their current set-up, such options are valuable for the Brewers, so it is a surprise to see Bukauskus as the name cut from their roster.

Elvin Rodriguez is signed to a one-year deal with a club option for 2026.

What do you think of the Brewers' first major league free agent signing? Did you anticipate yet another bullpen addition? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Terry]

I believe the first major league signing was Grant Wolfram?

[Jake McKibbin]

7 hours ago, Terry said:

I believe the first major league signing was Grant Wolfram?

He was on a split contract apparently, so didn't quite qualify!

[Terry]

Some tidbit I found interesting. Even though his fastball didn't create tons of whiffs back in 2023, The ride did create a jaw-dropping 17.9% pop up rate amongt his BIP against fastballs, which explained why he had a 29.1 infield flyball rate.