2025 NL Central Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

[Michael Trzinski]

The Pittsburgh Pirates have not had a .500 season since 2018 and haven’t made a playoff appearance since 2015. The 1979 ‘We Are Family’ Pirates, led by Willie “Pops” Stargell, Dave “Cobra” Parker, and John “Candy Man” Candelaria won their last World Series. Can new stars like Paul Skenes, Bryan Reynolds, and Oneil Cruz do the heavy lifting along with old pro Andrew McCutcheon to get this team across the finish line in a ‘up for grabs’ NL Central in 2025, or will they once again walk the plank?

Image courtesy of Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Last Year
The Bucs finished dead last in the NL Central in 2024 with a mark of 76-86 under skipper Derek Shelton, 17 games behind the division-winning Brewers. They climbed as high as second in the standings on July 30, but lost 12 of 13 games to drop them out of the race. Their team OPS+ was 87, which ranked second-to-last in the NL, as did their 1,506 strikeouts. They have lots of work to do, but on the bright side, Paul Skenes won the NL Rookie of the Year award last year and Reynolds was an All-Star, so there is some potential there.

Key Losses: Pitchers Aroldis Chapman and Luis Ortiz, 1B/OF Connor Joe, 1B Rowdy Tellez, OF Bryan De La Cruz, C Yasmani Grandal, OF Michael A. Taylor.

Key Signings: Outfielders Tommy Pham and DJ Stewart, 1B Spencer Horwitz, IF-OF Adam Frazier, 2B Enmanuel Valdéz , pitchers Tim Mayza, Caleb Ferguson, and Tanner Rainey.

Starting Pitching
Any discussion of pitching in Pittsburgh starts with Skenes. Last year’s rookie season earned him the NL ROY award and a third-place finish in the NL Cy Young voting. His stat line showed an ERA+ of 214, 2.44 FIP, a strikeout rate of 33.1% and a walk rate of 6.2%. He will be the staff ace.

Two pitchers that are certain to be in the rotation are right-handers Mitch Keller and Jared Jones. Keller was an All-Star in 2023, and Jones is said to have a fastball comparable to that of Skenes. Southpaw Bailey Falter rounds out the top four. Right-handers Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler, and Johan Oviedo will compete for the final spot in the rotation. Burrows has some impressive minor league power numbers, while Chandler is #15 on the MLB Top Prospects list. Oviedo missed all of 2024 after Tommy John surgery. Right-handers Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington have potential as well.

Update: Southpaw Andrew Heaney was signed to a free agent contract and will compete for a rotation spot.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Name	FIP	fWAR	K%	BB%
Paul Skenes	3.17	3.7	28.9	6.9
Jared Jones	3.79	2.1	24.3	7.2
Mitch Keller	3.99	2.3	21.2	6.8
Bailey Falter	4.42	1.1	16.9	6.8
Mike Burrows	4.57	0.5	19.1	8.9
Bubba Chandler	4.58	0.8	19.8	9.0
Johan Oviedo	4.31	1.1	21.1	9.3
Braxton Ashcraft	3.88	1.2	19.2	5.2
Thomas Harrington	4.39	1.0	18.4	6.3

Relief Pitching
Seven pitchers appear to have a spot in the bullpen when the Pirates’ season starts on March 27 in Miami. Right-handers David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Dennis Santana, Kyle Nicolas, and Carmen Mlodzinski should start the season as part of the relief crew, with Bednar and Santana handling the late-inning duties. Nicolas has perhaps the best pure stuff on the staff and will pitch in high-leverage situations. Lefties Tim Mayza and Caleb Ferguson will join in the mix.

Five others that have a shot of making the Opening Day roster are righties Carson Fulmer, Peter Strzelecki, Hunter Stratton, and Chase Shugart. Southpaw Ryan Borucki hopes to rebound from an injury-plagued 2024.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Name	FIP	fWAR	K%	BB%
David Bednar	3.48	0.6	25.7	8.4
Colin Holderman	3.82	0.4	23.4	9.8
Dennis Santana	3.59	0.6	23.1	9.2
Kyle Nicolas	4.53	0.2	21.8	11.5
Carmen Mlodzinski	4.01	0.6	20.8	9.2
Tim Mayza	4.19	0.1	16.8	7.9
Caleb Ferguson	3.18	0.8	24.3	8.8
Carson Fulmer	4.60	0.2	18.7	11.2
Peter Strzelecki	4.32	0.0	21.1	9.4
Hunter Stratton	3.93	0.3	22.3	9.1
Chase Shugart	4.60	0.1	17.1	8.4
Ryan Borucki	4.58	-0.1	23.4	11.2

Catcher
Joey Bart is the presumptive starter with the departure of Yasmani Grandal. In his first season in Pittsburgh, Bart hit 13 HRs in 253 ABs while leading the team with an OPS+ of 120. Henry Davis and Endy Rodríguez will also see playing time.

First Base
The recently acquired Spencer Horwitz was expected to be the starter but is out for 6-8 weeks after surgery on his right thumb. Utility player Jared Triolo might be next in line. Slick fielding Billy Cook should get some starts, along with outfielder Bryan Reynolds.

Second Base
Nick Gonzales slashed .270/.311/.398 over 359 ABs last year and is penciled in as the starter at the keystone. Triolo will get playing time at second, as will Adam Frazier and Enmanuel Valdéz.

Third Base
After missing the last seven weeks of 2024 with a back injury, Ke’Bryan Hayes appears to be healthy this spring and should start at the hot corner. Frazier and Valdéz will fill in as needed.

Shortstop
Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be the everyday shortstop. Gonzales, Triolo, and Nick Yorke will be the back-ups.

Outfield
The only thing we know for sure is that Oneil Cruz will play center field. The 6-foot-7 shortstop-turned-outfielder has 30/30 potential and will be one of the next Pirates superstars. Tommy Pham might play left while Reynolds plays right. Others that will in the starting mix are Jack Suwinski, DJ Stewart, Yorke, Cook, Joshua Palacios, and Frazier.

Designated Hitter
Most likely, Pittsburgh fan favorite Andrew McCutcheon will be the DH… unless he is needed in the outfield, which would spell doom for the Pirates.. Then, it could be anyone.

2025 FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

Name	wRC+	OPS	wOBA	fWAR
Joey Bart	98	.709	.313	1.3
Endy Rodríguez	91	.694	.303	1.9
Henry Davis	101	.725	.318	1.5
Spencer Horwitz	119	.783	.344	2.5
Jared Triolo	89	.675	.301	1.8
Nick Gonzales	105	.746	.323	2.6
Enmanuel Valdéz	91	.695	.302	0.9
Adam Frazier	82	.650	.289	0.5
Ke’Bryan Hayes	85	.670	.294	1.9
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	81	.654	.288	1.0
Tommy Pham	95	.699	.307	0.4
Bryan Reynolds	114	.779	.337	2.5
Oneil Cruz	112	.779	.334	3.0
Jack Suwinski	109	.765	.330	1.7
Nick Yorke	84	.665	.293	1.3
Billy Cook	87	.681	.297	0.9
Joshua Palacios	104	.739	.322	1.0
Andrew McCutcheon	95	.695	.309	0.0
DJ Stewart	84	.653	.292	-0.3

Summary

The Pirates aren't anyone's definition of a favorite, and the PECOTA projections have them set to finish fourth in the division with a 78-84 record. A climb back to .500 would be a success for the downtrodden Buccos, who have lots of young talent percolating through the system but have done little to supplement it at the major league level.

Expect Pittsburgh to be a thorn in everyone's side in 2025 while ultimately falling shy of a playoff spot.

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[jay87shot]

For me, the Pirates and Cards are basically the same teams. The Cubs are a threat with Kyle Tucker and a little better bullpen and the Reds will be better but they don't reallly scare me because that bullpen only added Taylor Rogers and the still don't have any middle of the order run producing bats.

[Michael Trzinski]

On 3/13/2025 at 12:32 PM, jay87shot said:

For me, the Pirates and Cards are basically the same teams. The Cubs are a threat with Kyle Tucker and a little better bullpen and the Reds will be better but they don't reallly scare me because that bullpen only added Taylor Rogers and the still don't have any middle of the order run producing bats.

I think the Cubs are the favorites and the other four will battle for runner-up. But, ya never know...