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jay87shot

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Everything posted by jay87shot

  1. I doubt he would be anywhere near that. Yes, he has been bad recently but was an all star this year. If he puts up a decent year next year I would think he is looking at least for 20 mill a year for 3-5 years.
  2. Assuming he stay healthy I think a Luis Severino deal 2/45 with a player option to 3/67 (I think), should be his floor on May's market. They are very similar pitchers going into free agency. Both were really good early in their career, had a couple lost seasons with injuries, struggled when they came back, have had a decent year before they hit the market, and have really good stuff. I wouldnt be surprised if May pitches well down the stretch and in the playoffs if he got a 9 figure deal. I can see us being able to do like 3/67 but probably not a lot more.
  3. Ebel has been giving off alot of Cooper Pratt vibes recently. Things like walking as much as k's and starting the season slow and being really good for most of the season, extra young for his draft class but promoted to high A in 1st season. Maybe his defense isn't quite to that level but he is a very similar athlete at least.
  4. I think we need to try and turn some quantity into quality which can be hard to do because most teams want to do the same. The first thing to do this offseason is sign Made long term if the org. is a full believer (I think almost everyone is). In that case, then most of the positions are settled but could be built on. The second question for me is what can be done with Yelich? I think the answer is nothing, however if we could move him that would really open up an crazy amount of options for the offseason. My guess is the Dodgers or Padres would be the only place he would even consider lifting his no trade for. The Angels and Giants aren't good enough at this point for him to want to move and lose. After that we can worry about the rest of the offseason. Like Bauers QO, the 1 year arby guys could all be dealt Megill, Contreras, and Vaughn: there are succession candidates at all spots. I think we should make solid efforts at young controllable pieces like Hunter Goodman other other high end controllable bats. The other guys mentioned Ashby, Mitchell, Anderson, Frelick, etc could all be moved for reason that have been listed. We will see how the rotation holds up down the stretch but I think it is clear that we will always be looking to add undervalued starters or quality arms even if we are 8-10 starters deep next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see most of the 1 year arby guys moved and to see us have a lot of salary available to sign back May or a quality bat like Lowe on relatively short multi year deals 2-3 (maybe 4) years. Obviously the collective bargaining adds a big wrinkle to a lot if the moves as well. Hopefully by the Winter Meetings there is an obvious direction on that front.
  5. I am really excited to see all the promotion from the weekend in there new places. It seems like most of the minor except Wilson could use a little pick me up, Maybe next week we could see Made to AAA, Dickinson to AA, Ortuno/Ibarguen? to A+. and maybe Hughes or someone to A. It would be nice to get Made some AAA time but he is the type of prospect who should be able to go from AA straight to the bigs if needed.
  6. This is a multi layered question for me, if it is easy as offer a QO and he declines it and signs for over $50 then it is easy do it. However I don't think we want to pay him 23 million if we can get good production at 1B. Vaughn will cost 13ish million less and provides pretty similar offensive numbers, yes less HR this year but less K's. Interesting Vaughn has at least statistically been a far superior defense player (Vaughn 0 drs, Bauers -6) at 1B this year. Vaughn does have about 200 less plate appearences and his HR production is down however he would be on pace for nearly 40 2B for a fully healthy year. My stance is this currently, if Bauers continues the season at this pace and is near 30 HR and 100 RBI I would offer him arby. It seems like a relatively weak offense class of free agents for power hitting players and there is a decent chance he declines and signs for 50+. If he does accept the QO great, however I wouldn't trade Vaughn. I would make him my nearly everyday LF (+1 DRS in 12 starts left). Chourio in RF, Mitchell in CF, Lara 4th OF (pinch run, defense replacement). Bauers would get some starts at 1B, but plays 3/4 days in LF and Vaughn plays mostly 1B everyday. Burke can start in AAA and get a call up when there is PT around some injury. I know Vaughn hasn't been great against RHP but this gives us a way to maximize our offensive potential. If Bauers is iffy down the stretch I would just let him walk and not offer the QO, in that case he is in that O'Hearn 2/20-30 range. The situation could also change if Vaughn struggles or something happens on the Yeli front.
  7. Are we in line for a comp pick after the 1st if Misi is top 3 in the Cy Young? Pretty sure thay we are in line for a comp A pick. Maybe Bauers could catch fire the last month and a half and decline a qualifying offer (unlikely). I will throw up the 1st interesting prospect (who likely will go to high for us) Striker Pence- 6'6" power right who throws 100 routinely. As a HS prospect, he declassified to 2027 from 28 so he is a tad younger. He also is a decent hitter and is from Corona, CA (not same HS as Ebel's). In all likelihood he is a top 20 pick and we dont take HS pitchers so he probably isn't a Brewer in a year.
  8. Great to see our pitching step up this weekend and the bats show at least some beginning signs of life (still a ways to go). I will say that that Dodgers team is likely a far cry from what they will be in the playoffs. However there offense does look older and not quite the same.
  9. Dickinson is hitting .333 with a .464 obp and a obps nearing 1.100 since the beginning of July. 8 HR, 13 2B 31 bb/29 k 22 sb in 126 abs. I would say AA is looking good if there is playing time.
  10. Even though the result weren't great there are some notable proformances. Sproat 5 inning 0 runs 1 h 3 bb 8 ks Dickinson 3/6 2 2b 1 hr 3 rbi, one of hottest hitter in all the minors the last 2 months, not much love outside of the updates. Bitonti 2 jacks 4 rbi Yannick Walther 3/4 quietly hitting over .280 with a ops over .800 at Appleton. Wande Torres 5 solid innings, probably the most underrated arm in the system. Antunez 3/4 currently batting .400 in Wilson. His stock has to be skyrocketing a his k's are coming down. O'Rae 49th sb in 87 games on his return
  11. Burke up 2 outs bases juiced down one in the bottom of 10.
  12. I agree it's laziness, they already had profile for Rodriguez for being a top 50 int. and Cairone from when he was a draft pick into the top 30. Just change a paragraph and post.
  13. I like the mlb pipeline setup and ease of information, however the end of the lists 20-30 often have some headscratchers. Jose Rodriguez over Leanders Matos doesn't make sense. I love Cairone but until he shows signs of being back he shouldn't likely be on a top 30.
  14. Here is my offseason plan 1) 3 team trade with Contreras Contreras to the Yankees, We get Hunter Goodman Rockies get Quero, Crow, and 2 Yankees prospects. We get a power bat that can catch and hopefully play some 1st. The Yanks get a much needed catching upgrade and the Rocks get 4 pieces that can help them across the board. 2) Megill to White Sox for Hagen Smith and a lotto prospect The Soxs likely get to the playoffs and realize they need bullpen help. Smith is an upside starter who our scouting likely would value highly. Also because I am trading some starters he would have value. 3) Vaughn and Ashby to the Mets for Jonah Tong, Emilian Pitre, and Shane Sdao Strearns needs to turn things around quickly. Vaughn gives him a quality bat and Ashby gives him a versatile quality arm. We get Tong while his value is low and our team can fix. Pitre is a hitting machine and Sdao is recent draft pick that could move quickly. I think a major part of this move is clearing out some money as well. 4) Sign Dustin May 3/60 and Gregory Soto 1/7, lesser signing like Zerpa (release and resign for less) I'd like to try and sign another bat like Brandon Lowe or Jake Bauers depending on what the salary floor and our finances end up. I will leave that put but I think that could be a possibility. By clearing out Contreras, Megill, Ashby, and Vaughn (Woody to FA) there is quite a bit of money to be spent. May has fit in well and at 28 he should be a good investment. However if he is really good the next couple months he could add on another year and 5 million aav and price us out. Soto would help lesson the loss of Megill and Ashby. 1) CF Lara 2) LF Chourio 3)2B Turang 4)C/1B Goodman 5)CF Mitchell 6)SS Pratt 7) DH Yeli 8) 3B Ortiz 9) C Naylor/1B Burke Bench= Hamilton, Lockridge, Naylor/Burke, Adams/other 1) Misi 2) May 3)Henderson 4) Harrison 5) Drohan Depth=Priester, Gasser, Smith, Tong, Hardin, Letson, etc Uribe, Soto, Sproat, Hall, Smith, Patrick, Gasser, Tong/Keonig/Holub/minor league signing I think a big thing is that I would expect Made to come up to the bigs around May to gain the extra year of control unless we could sign him in the offseason. Lossing all those guys would be really tough but I think would be manageable by adding Goodman to the lineup and getting more controllable pitching. The pen would worry me going into the season but I would be pretty confident in one of Sproat, Smith, or Tong becoming a late inning guy. I would also think we could have Gasser at the #5 starter and Drohan could be an 8th inning guy.
  15. The initial floor of 170 and cap of 245 in my opinion are just a result of negotiating tactics. The floor is purposefully set high and the cap is set low. That way when negotiating the "settling in the middle" ends up where baseball actually wants it. My guess is that the floor ends up around 120 and the goes up 5 milly a year and the ceiling gets around 275 possibly up to 300.
  16. Agreed, cutting Yeli would be awful. I get he isn't producing but at this point there is no one going to come up and jump start the team. We do still have the best record in the league and miles away from the cut the rope situation.
  17. Jesus MadeLuis PenaLuis LaraJosh AdamczewskiBraylon PayneAndrew FischerBlake BurkeBrady EbelJett WilliamsJeferson QueroMarco DingesBishop LetsonTyson HardinJosh KnothLuke AdamsLeanders MatosDiego FrontadoRicki MoneysBrailyn AntunezEric Bitonti There are still 30 players or so that probably are in consideration for the top 20. I give the DSL trio and Bitonti the nod over the rest based on age and upside.
  18. Great win, we clearly arent playing our best baseball but W's are W's Great idea for a brewers shirt. Murphy's Law= Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. And the Brewers will still win.
  19. Ethan Murray or Luke Adams (he has been playing a little 3B), probably a free ahent signing if there is anyone available.
  20. I would really like to keep William 1 more year but agree the Naylor trade is likely foreshadowing of a trade. I would guess that Contreras should get a similar return to Freddy and Megill around Devin in terms of value. I think 1st base is the biggest question mark. Bauers is likely going to get a deal similar to Ryan O'Hearn and be gone. I agree Vaughn wouldnt have a ton of value, maybe a decent middle relief arm. With Adams, Burke, and Fischer we could trade Vaughn or just keep him to maintain some consistency. I think Ashby could be a candidate to trade as his salary become more for a reliever. If we do trade Megill and Ashby we would really need some quality young bullpen arms. I don't think we could trade Yeli but it would be likely the best avenue to potentially improve an offense position.
  21. It's clearly to early for anything substantive but I am always up for a discussion on potential roster moves. Do we trade Contreras, Vaughn, and/or Megill in their last season of control? What are potentially viable ways to improve a team that has depth, youth, and decent quality at every position?
  22. 97-98 from Patrick is crazy to think he was lower 90's (as a starter) when we acquired him.
  23. If we can chase Skenes here in the 5th that would be huge. It would be nice to reek some havoc on that pen.
  24. Deberry, Gordon, and Thompson with solid outing so far. Antunez is currently 2/3 with a SB, huge start to his A ball tenure.
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