The Brewers’ Offense Has Something to Prove This October

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The MLB regular season is winding down, with the first round of the playoffs set to begin in less than a fortnight. At this point, the Milwaukee Brewers hold the best record in the National League and are in a very good position to earn a bye through the Wild Card round. It’s a spot this team is pretty familiar with: They entered last year’s postseason as the top seed in the NL, too. While the team took down the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS last year, though, the season came to an abrupt end in the NLCS when the Dodgers swept them in four games. The biggest reason for that? The offense couldn't solve Los Angeles's excellent starting pitchers.

Milwaukee scored just one run in each game of the set. Their pitching staff actually did a pretty good job of keeping the Dodgers’ lineup in check for most of the games, but it didn’t matter, because the bats couldn’t give them anything to work with. That naturally raises the question heading into this postseason: Can the Brewers’ offense step up this time around?

On paper: yes. Milwaukee has scored the second-most runs in baseball this season with 788, trailing only the Cubs. The offense has been especially productive lately, with the Brewers scoring at least eight runs in half of their games in September. There are plenty of reasons to believe the bats are getting hot at exactly the right time. But there’s also a little bit of déjà vu here.

The Brewers had the second-most runs scored in baseball last season, too. They were the top seed in the National League and had been one of the best teams in baseball from start to finish. For much of the year, it felt like there wasn’t much that could get in their way. Then they got to the NLCS and went 14-for-119 at the plate across four games. That’s obviously a small sample size, but it was a disastrous one. Milwaukee couldn’t string together hits, couldn’t capitalize on opportunities, and ultimately gave itself no chance against the Dodgers. So why should this year be any different?

Firstly, if you never step in the same river twice, you never take the same lineup to the playoffs twice, either. Guys like Brice Turang, Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick struggled mightily in that series. Turang went 1-for-15, while Yelich and Frelick combined to go 1-for-14. Those players now have another postseason run in front of them, and they have an opportunity to make sure the same thing doesn’t happen again. Experience obviously doesn’t guarantee better results, but in terms of both knowledge and emotion, each experience like losing a playoff series changes you—and opens up a new menu of adjustments and opportunities.

The other reason I’m more confident in this Brewers offense is the way they’ve performed in high-leverage situations throughout the season. Milwaukee has the highest team batting average and on-base percentage in baseball in high-leverage spots. Their .781 OPS in those situations is just three points behind the Astros for the league lead. That’s a pretty significant development compared to last season. 

The Brewers weren’t nearly as successful in those moments a year ago, and eventually, that lack of production caught up with them in the postseason. This year’s team has shown a much greater ability to come through when the pressure is on. When you get into a playoff series where one or two hits with runners in scoring position can completely change a game, that can make a massive difference. If they've approached it correctly, this whole season can serve as a staging period and preparation for October. Every clutch hit next month is worth two or three of them in the regular campaign.

The pitching staff can only do so much. Even if the Brewers get another strong postseason from their arms, they’ll need the offense to support them. After what happened at the end of last season, this feels like a group with something to prove. Milwaukee has already established themselves as one of the best teams in baseball over the course of the regular season. Now, they have another opportunity to prove that this team is capable of finishing the job. The offense will have a lot to do with whether they can.

View full article