Brewers Players Hitting Their 80th Percentile ZiPS (or Thereabouts) From 2024 to 2026

[sveumrules]

We know that the Brewers beating the projections during the regular season has become an almost annual tradition, especially of late with overages of 13, 16, and 20 wins the last three years compared to their preseason win projections on the FanGraphs Playoff Odds page.

Now the ZiPS projections are only one half of that equation (along with the Steamer projections), and when you consider the team depth charts curated by FG staff maybe more like 25 or 33 percent of that equation, but one nice thing about ZiPS is that each season's team projection post includes 20th and 80th percentile outcomes (along with a host of other information) for every player. 

With that in mind, I was curious to see which players over the last three years have contributed the most to those overages by hitting their 80th percentile outcomes or better, so here it is (using RA9-WAR for the pitchers)...

2024 (80th percentile | actual)
Contreras (4.5 WAR | 5.5 WAR)
Chourio (3.1 WAR | 3.9 WAR)
Ortiz (2.7 WAR | 3.2 WAR)
Yelich (3.0 WAR | 3.0 WAR)
Turang (2.5 WAR | 2.6 WAR)
Mitchell (1.7 WAR | 1.9 WAR)
Myers (2.0 WAR | 3.4 WAR)
Hudson (1.0 WAR | 2.7 WAR)
Rea (1.7 WAR | 2.0 WAR )
Koenig (1.1 WAR | 1.3 WAR)
Megill (0.8 WAR | 1.3 WAR)
2024 Just Missed (80th percentile | actual)
Adames (5.4 WAR | 4.9 WAR)
Perkins (1.9 WAR | 1.6 WAR)
Peralta (3.6 WAR | 3.3 WAR)
Payamps (1.1 WAR | 1.0 WAR)

2025 (80th percentile | actual)
Turang (3.8 WAR | 4.4 WAR)
Frelick (3.3 WAR | 3.6 WAR)
Durbin (2.2 WAR | 2.7 WAR)
Collins (2.1 WAR | 2.6 WAR)
Freddy (3.4 WAR | 6.1 WAR)
Priester (2.0 WAR | 3.5 WAR)
Abner (0.9 WAR | 2.7 WAR)
Patrick (1.7 WAR | 2.6 WAR)
Ashby (1.8 WAR | 2.1 WAR)
Koenig (1.6 WAR | 1.6 WAR)
Megill (1.1 WAR | 1.4 WAR)
Misio (0.7 WAR | 0.7 WAR)
2025 Just Missed (80th percentile | acutal)
Henderson (1.5 WAR | 1.2 WAR)
Quintana (2.2 WAR | 1.8 WAR)
Vaughn 
(127 OPS+ | 141 OPS+ | 2.5 WAR | 1.9 WAR)
Bauers
(114 OPS+ | 111 OPS+ | 1.1 WAR | 0.8 WAR)

2026 (80th percentile | actual)
Turang (4.4 WAR | 5.9 WAR)
Bauers (1.5 WAR | 3.7 WAR)
Mitchell (1.6 WAR | 3.1 WAR)
Misio (2.8 WAR | 7.1 WAR)
Henderson (1.8 WAR | 3.7 WAR)
Abner (1.8 WAR | 2.6 WAR)
Gasser (1.5 WAR | 1.9 WAR)
Hall (1.1 WAR | 1.9 WAR)
Megill (1.5 WAR | 1.8 WAR)
Drohan (1.1 WAR | 1.3 WAR)
2026 Just Missed (80th percentile | actual)
Chourio (5.0 WAR | 4.6 WAR)
Ortiz (3.0 WAR | 2.9 WAR)
Pratt (2.1 WAR | 1.7 WAR)
Patrick (2.2 WAR | 2.1 WAR)
Ashby (1.6 WAR | 1.4 WAR)

If I counted right that is 33 players that hit or exceeded their 80th percentile outcomes over the last three years, with another 13 or so that weren't too far off. 

[Tedaldtada]

How many of those are 95%+ percentile seasons?

[sveumrules]

18 minutes ago, Tedaldtada said:

How many of those are 95%+ percentile seasons?

Not 100% sure without the actual figures, but going somewhat by feel I'd guess guys like 2024 Contreras (+1.0 WAR), 2024 Chourio (+0.8 WAR), 2024 Megill (+0.5 WAR), 2025 Patrick (+0.9 WAR), 2026 Abner (+0.8 WAR), and 2026 Hall (+0.8 WAR) are some of the low end contenders for hitting that 95th percentile while guys like 2024 Myers (+1.4 WAR), 2024 Hudson (+1.7 WAR), 2025 Peralta (+2.7 WAR), 2025 Priester (+1.5 WAR), 2025 Abner (+1.8 WAR), 2026 Turang (+1.5 WAR), 2026 Bauers (+2.2 WAR), 2026 Mitchell (+1.5 WAR), 2026 Misio (+4.3 WAR), and 2026 Henderson (+1.9 WAR) blew by it pretty easily.