sveumrules

OKC has kind of always been the dream fit if they could manage to thread that needle. One of Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren as the main salary match, plus whichever combo of Cason Wallace, Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber, and Ajay Mitchell as young prospects to round out the financials, then they've got #12 and #17 in this year's draft plus a stockpile of other future firsts they could offer.

Obviously it's a small sample for Jake, but going back to September 5th of last year he is at 247 PA of 149 wRC+ for 1.4 WAR, though StatCast thinks there is some good fortune in there with a .362 expected wOBA versus a .385 actual wOBA. He'll be entering FA going into his age 31 season. Best comp for a first basemen/corner outfielder who signed last offseason would probably be Ryan O'Hearn. Was a year older, but had a longer track record of success with 1,406 PA of 121 wRC+ for 6.1 WAR from 2023 to 2025, and signed for 2/$26M.

2022-25 Mitchell had 443 PA of 10.2 BB% | 33.9 K% | .376 BABIP | .179 ISO shaking out to a 114 wRC+. So far this year he is at 178 PA of 14.6 BB% | 37.1 K% | .388 BABIP | .135 ISO shaking out to a 107 wRC+. Garrett already had the Extreme knob cranked to eleven and now he's kicked on the distortion pedal. Still think if he can stay healthy long enough to stack PAs and make some adjustments there is something like 2023 to current Brandon Marsh in there who has 1,576 PA of 10.0 BB% | 28.8 K% | .372 BABIP | .169 ISO shaking out to a 117 wRC+. Most concerning for Garrett though might be the backslide of his soft skills with +4.8 BsR | +5.2 DEF on FanGraphs from 2022 to 2025 but -0.3 BsR | -1.2 DEF in the early going this year.

Entering play today for 2026 as a whole they were at... 4.84 R/G (6th) | 98 wRC+ (15th) | +0.6 BsR (14th) w/RISP 620 PA (4th) | 214 RBI (3rd) | 133 wRC+ (1st) It's basically the same formula they've been running out since Murphy's arrival with a runs per game rank that outpaces their overall batting line because they hit a lot and hit well with runners in scoring position. The big differences over these first two months are that they haven't been nearly as good on the bases and the dregs in the bottom three four lineup spots have dragged their overall batting line down from what they managed in 2024 (105 wRC+) and 2025 (107 wRC+). I'd imagine with personnel changes eventually coming for those black hole spots, plus guys like Chourio, Yelich & Vaughn continuing to get a higher percentage of the team PAs, that they'll end up closer to that combined 106 wRC+ mark from the last two years than the 98 wRC+ over these first two months.

Rob Z is an interesting man of extremes for sure. Over his 29.2 IP with the Brewers going back to 2024 now he has a shiny 51 ERA- largely on account of limiting hits (72 BABIP+) via an astronomical fly ball rate (129 FB+) that has also helped him strand runners (121 LOB+) at a well above average clip. His peripherals are pretty vanilla (99 FIP-) featuring more walks than you'd like (109 BB+) especially considering the lack of strikeouts (93 K+) though his HR suppression (79 HR+) has been good in a small sample, but that 117 xFIP- thinks he's gotten pretty lucky with some of those fly balls staying in the yard. While the various FIPs aren't big believers, his 2.91 xERA via StatCast slots in between guys like Misio (2.75), Ashby (2.93), Megill (3.03), and Harrison (3.04). The average leverage index when he came into a game was 1.13 just ahead of Hoby Milner (1.11) and a little farther behind Joel Payamps (1.24) on that same leaderboard so he's been used in more medium leverage situations than a mop up role like Woodford (his 0.29 gmLI ranks 272nd of 276 relievers with at least 10 IP so far this year).

The Brewers hitters have been getting better and better since Murphy took over... 2017-23 4,693 R (17th) | 100 wRC+ (16th) | +17.4 BsR (9th) w/RISP 9,611 PA (17th) | 3,034 RBI (19th) | 106 wRC+ (11th) 2024-yesterday 1,849 R (4th) | 105 wRC+ (10th) | +35.2 BsR (1st) w/RISP 4,047 PA (1st) | 1,348 RBI (2nd) | 120 wRC+ (3rd) since May 18th 2025 5.14 R/G (1st) | 110 wRC+ (3rd) | +7.8 BsR (3rd) w/RISP 1,878 PA (1st) | 652 RBI (1st) | 124 wRC+ (1st)

Yeah, now looking like Giannis & SGA teaming up might be the only way to stop Wemby.

Before today the NL was +34 wins on the AL for the season. Looks like a big driver of the difference has been bullpen performance... National League Relievers 93 ERA- | 96 FIP- | +23.19 WPA 186 W - 136 L | +341 Shutdowns American League Relievers 103 ERA- | 102 FIP- | -3.34 WPA 169 W - 172 L | +193 Shutdowns

Frelick (87 PA of 47 wRC+), Rengifo (75 PA of 47 wRC+), Mitchell (75 PA of 38.7 K%), Ortiz (60 PA of 64 wRC+), Hamilton (59 PA of 53 wRC+), Sanchez (37 PA of 50 wRC+), and Perkins (23 PA of -67 wRC+) took 44% of the team's plate appearances combining for -22.6 batting runs during the month...and they went 19 W - 7 L with a +36 run differential anyway. Guess that kind of thing will happen when the pitching staff goes for an MLB best (2nd in parentheses)... 2.62 ERA (PHI 2.96) 2.95 xERA (NYY 3.17) 2.76 FIP (PHI 3.15) 27.7 K% (PHI 26.0) 0.48 HR9 (NYM 0.74) .197 AVG (LAD .205) 5.0 Barrel% (t-NYY 5.0) 33.9 HardHit% (TBR 34.9) 102.8 EV90 (LAA 103.4) 108 Stuff+ (t-PHI 108) 6.9 rWAR (t-PHI 6.9) 6.1 fWAR (PHI 5.3) *all stats besides W/L record and run differential from before today's game*

Looks like Jared Koenig worked a scoreless fifth inning for the Sounds as well in his second rehab appearance. 15 pitches, 11 for strikes.

When this was posted before the games on May 7th the Cubs had a 25 W - 12 L record good or a 3.5 game lead in the division. Their team 123 wRC+ was 2nd in MLB and their 5.41 R/G was tied for 2nd/3rd. Here is a quick rundown of how the above quoted players have performed since then... PCA career: 99 wRC+ thru 0506: 97 wRC+ since 0506: 117 wRC+ Dansby 2023-25: 101 wRC+ thru 0506: 102 wRC+ since 0506: 39 wRC+ Bregman 2023-25: 122 wRC+ thru 0506: 98 wRC+ since 0506: 103 wRC+ Busch 2024-25: 129 wRC+ thru 0506: 104 wRC+ since 0506: 144 wRC+ [of the four guys who were either around or below their recent performances PCA and Busch have seen improvement, Bregman stayed about the same, and Dansby has been brutal] Hoerner 2021-25: 106 wRC+ thru 0506: 129 wRC+ since 0506: 54 wRC+ Happ 2021-25: 117 wRC+ thru 0506: 149 wRC+ since 0506: 106 wRC+ Suzuki 2022-25: 127 wRC+ thru 0506: 160 wRC+ since 0506: 48 wRC+ Kelly 2025: 115 wRC+ thru 0506: 140 wRC+ since 0506: 88 wRC+ Conforto 2021-25: 99 wRC+ thru 0506: 160 wRC+ since 0506: 146 wRC+ Ballesteros thru 0506: 153 wRC+ since 0506: -10 wRC+ Shaw thru 0506: 120 wRC+ since 0506: -52 wRC+ [meanwhile, of the seven guys who were performing well above their recent performance only Conforto has been able to maintain his hot start with Suzuki, Happ, Ballesteros, and Shaw all crashing particularly hard] It probably also hasn't helped that they went from a 3.85 ERA | 3.99 xERA | 4.07 FIP thru 0506 to a 4.73 ERA | 5.00 xERA | 5.07 FIP since then.

There are a couple things (besides the Angels undeniable incompetence) that limited Trout/Ohtani from having more success. The first was that it took Ohtani awhile to get going. From 2018 to 2020 while Trout was the best player in baseball with 1449 PA of 179 wRC+ for 19.4 WAR, Shohei was still figuring it out with 967 PA of 124 wRC+ for 4.3 WAR hitting plus 53 IP of 102 ERA- | 90 FIP- for 0.9 WAR on the mound. Then the injuries started for Trout with only 241 PA in 2021 while Ohtani was having his first breakout season notching 8.9 combined WAR. Trout bounced back for his last good season in 2022 with 499 PA of 176 wRC+ for 6.0 WAR while Ohtani registered another 9.8 combined WAR. Shohei followed up with 10.4 combined WAR in his walk year, but Trout was hurt again with only 362 PA. So of their six years together Ohtani wasn't OHTANI yet for the first three, then Trout was mostly injured once Shohei started his run of dominance.

But what happens when we trade for CJ Abrams and still lose to the Dodgers because they are like five CJ Abramses better than us? Current WS Odds on FanGraphs & PECOTA are 3.8 to 5.4% for the Brewers versus 22.4 to 23.3% for the Dodgers. They could probably give us Ohtani for free and still have better World Series odds. The Dodgers won 91 more games than the next best team from 2013 to 2023 and won zero full season World Series. It took them until the eleventh full season of their run to finally breakthrough after 162 games. The Yankees have the second most wins in MLB since 2010 and have been to one World Series in that time. When it takes the two franchises with more built in advantages than anyone else over a decade to win (or lose in the Yankees case) a World Series why would I complain that the Brewers haven’t done it yet over their eight year run going back to 2018? Realistically this year will only be the third sesson of their run with most of the current group under Murphy.

FanGraphs flipped from favoring the Cubs for the Division to favoring the Brewers for the Division during our three game sweep of them last week. Looks like PECOTA over at BPro has almost gotten there too at a current projection of 88.7 W | 45.3 Div% for Chicago and 88.6 W | 43.8 Div% for Milwaukee

On April 25th the Pirates beat the Brewers 6 to 3 in ten innings dropping Milwaukee to a season worst 13 W - 13 L and fifth place in the NLC, 4.5 games behind the Reds in first place. Since then? The Brewers 19 W - 7 L record is tied with TBR for the best in MLB with PHI (19 W - 9 L) and ATL (18 W - 9 L) the only other teams losing fewer than eleven games over that stretch. They currently have a 3.5 game lead on the rest of the NLC. Here are some of their MLB best pitching marks during this stretch with second place in parentheses following... 2.41 ERA (TBR 2.43) 2.68 FIP (PHI 3.03) 2.74 xERA (PHI 3.23) 29.5 K% (PHI 26.4) 0.50 HR9 (NYY 0.73) .187 AVG (ATL .197) 1.05 WHIP (LAD 1.10) 7.7 rWAR (PHI 6.8) 6.2 fWAR (PHI 5.9) All told the pitching staff has allowed three or fewer runs in 20 of these last 26 games. The position players come in with a 108 wRC+ (5th) scoring 5.0 R/G (3rd) despite only hitting 18 HR (30th) and posting a .120 isolated slugging (28th). Their +2.14 Win Probability Added and 2.08 Clutch Score are both best in MLB over these last 26 games. Those bottom line results aren't too far off what the Brewers posted for the whole 2025 season with a 107 wRC+ (9th) and 4.98 R/G (3rd).

Sounds currently ahead 5 to 4 heading to bottom eight. Jett Williams (BBx2 | SB), Cooper Pratt (1Bx2 | BB), Luis Lara (1Bx3), Luis Matos (1B | BB), Akil Baddoo (1B | BB), and Tyler Black (2B | BBx2 | SB) with busy nights in the box so far and Pratt set to lead off in the 8th. Rob Z with an eleven pitch 3U3D1K inning.

Wisco is rain delayed bottom of seven trailing 5 to 2 with solo shots from Andrew Fischer (who also singled & walked) and Marco Dinges accounting for the two runs.

Wilson puts up a 4 to 1 victory. Brady Ebel stays hot with a pair of doubles, Juan Ortuno doubled up on both singles and walks, while Pedro Ibarguen went deep for the third time this year. Rylan Mills also doubled (and struck out three times). Tyler Renz bounced back from two HR and four ER his last time out to put up five scoreless frames (4 H | 2 BB | 6 K).

Since Murphy took over in 2024 the Brewers have scored the 4th most runs in MLB despite being 24th in home runs. Going back to May 18th of last year the Brewers have scored thee most runs in MLB despite being 27th in home runs. You don't think Murphy is getting the most out of his mostly powerless lineup? There's a lot more room for downward mobility than upward from where they're sitting. Chourio has a 128 wRC+ over 528 PA batting second in his career (his most PA of any lineup spot). How is that not a two?

Yeah, that would be pretty stupid. He has eight starts and 33 PA against RHP already though so that’s not what they are doing. Vaughn also has a 429/555/571 line over his nine pinch hit PA since joining the Brewers, so he could still make an impact if the Cards bring in a lefty reliever later in the game.

It's not that you can't do anything about Sal, it's that he's a guy who from 2023 to 2025 put up 6.4 WAR ranking 29th among all outfielders. That kind of past performance, coupled with whatever intangibles / leadership role he has on the team is gonna buy him more than 51 games. Especially when the team is playing so well despite his struggles. Small sample of only 46 PA against LHP, but Bauers has a 119 wRC+ versus southpaws so far this year. Missing two of their best RHP for half the year (plus Yelich who had a fine 109 wRC+ vs LHP from 2024-25) and they've still managed an 11 W - 5 L against LHP this year. If they were getting owned by LHP there might be more urgency but that hasn't been a problem so far. The Brewers aren't going to add Lara to the 40 Man, start his service clock, then possibly burn an option year down the road just to see what he's got for a couple few weeks until Lockridge is ready to return. Are you really losing anything or doing any harm? The Brewers are on an 18 W - 7 L run that is 2nd best in MLB over that stretch, there is a lot more downward mobility from there than there is upward. Injuries to Chourio, Vaughn, Yelich, Priester, Woodruff, Koenig...plus Megill, Uribe, Zerpa combining for a 5.81 ERA and six losses in their 48 IP...plus getting -39.6 batting runs from Matos, Hamilton, Jones, Ortiz, Frelick, Perkins, Rengifo...and the Brewers are playing at a 98-99 win pace, with a 2.5 game lead on the best division in baseball, scoring the 4th most and allowing the 4th fewest runs per game for a +71 run differential that is 3rd in MLB and one of only four teams even above +40. The Brewers will likely play worse from here on out no matter what they do. I don't think anyone believes they are a true talent 98-99 win team like they are currently on pace for, a true talent 105 win team like their Pythag would imply over 162 games, and they definitely aren't a .720 W% team like they have played over their last 25 games, that's 2001 Mariners territory. But that performance as a team to this point, especially considering all the obstacles they have faced to get there, buys them more time to be patient in their movements, let the kids develop and call them up when the front office thinks they are ready (unless injury dictates otherwise in the interim) instead of calling them up hoping to improve on an already rolling team.

Pratt thru 0423 (75 PA) 156/270/172 (30 wRC+) Pratt since 0423 (115 PA) 280/404/527 (145 wRC+) Jett thru 0423 (103 PA) 186/320/256 (65 wRC+) Jett since 0423 (119 PA) 300/403/520 (144 wRC+) No doubt the Pratt and Jett have been much improved over the last month, but it's still just a month and a little over a hundred PA for each of them. Am guessing the Brewers are going to want to see them have a little more sustained success (& Super Two to pass for Jett) before giving either the call. Lara has obviously been performing all year but between Mitchell's upside & needing PA after missing so much time, Sal being an integral part of the the last three Division Champion teams, Lockridge performing capably as a 4th OF since his acquisition, and Bauers getting more OF time as his bat has taken off, it was always going to be a longer runway to regular PT for Luis. As far as it costing us a few games already, the Brewers 18 W - 7 L record is the second best in MLB going back to April 26th behind only the Rays at 19 W - 6 L. The extent to which Rengifo, Hamilton, Ortiz, Perkins, Frelick have actually been costing them, and the theoretical immediate boost we'd get from Jett, Pratt, Lara, or Leonard making their MLB debuts with limited track records of AAA success under their respective belts are probably being overstated in both directions.

After today Brewers starting pitchers are at a 3.13 ERA with 87 ER allowed over 250 IP. Misio and Harrison have combined for 22 ER over their 109.2 IP shaking out to a 1.81 ERA with the Brewers going 13 W - 7 L in their starts. Sproat (37.1 IP | 24 ER), Woodruff (30.0 IP | 12 ER), Patrick (24.1 IP | 8 ER), Henderson (23 IP | 7 ER), and Crow (10.1 IP | 3 ER) have combined for 54 ER over 125 IP in their starts shaking out to a 3.89 ERA that would rank 8th among MLB rotations on its own before subtracting out every other team's two best starters. The Brewers have combined to go 18 W - 8 L in their starts which would be a 112 win pace over 162 games. Not too many teams have SP3 through SP7 that can hang with those kind of results. What has really killed the rotation's results are the three starts by Gasser (8.1 IP | 6 ER) and Drohan (2.2 IP | 3 ER) plus the two opener games with Ashby (2.1 IP | 2 ER) and Hall (2.0 IP | 0 ER) where the Brewers went 0 W - 5 L with a 6.46 ERA.

Miz is currently at 100 K in 64 IP. Let's just extrapolate for fun and say he would hit 300 K at 192 IP or thereabouts. Looks like there have been 34 individual seasons of 300 or more strikeouts going back to Bob Feller in 1946. Some of the lower IP totals belong to 2019 Gerrit Cole (212.1 IP | 326 K), 1999 Pedro (213.1 IP | 313 K), and 2017 Chris Sale (214.1 IP | 308 K).

With the off day for the four non-Complex affiliates today thought it might be a good time to check in on how each team is doing relative to their competition. Wilson Wardbirds (23 W - 22 L) - Both the Wilson hitters (19.5) and pitchers (20.4) remain the youngest in the league per BRef, by almost a full year on the pitching side. - Despite a .684 OPS that is 12th in the 12 team league, the Warbirds 5.09 R/G are sixth, while their 276 walks are second. - Pitchers have allowed a 4.68 ERA that ranks eighth. Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (23 W - 18 L) - Both the Wisconsin hitters (21.5) and pitchers (21.9) remain the youngest in the league per BRef. - TRats are getting it done in the box with an .818 OPS that tops the twelve team league while scoring 6.27 R/G which comes in third. - Pitchers have allowed a 7.28 ERA with a 1.47 K/BB ratio, both of which are worst in the league. Biloxi Shuckers (22 W - 21 L) - Biloxi hitters are tied for youngest in the league (23.4) while the pitchers (23.0) are the youngest in the league, again by almost a full year. - Shuckers top the league with a .782 OPS, 5.95 R/G, and 234 BB. Their 379 strikeouts are fewest in the eight team league. - Pitchers sitting in sixth with a 5.50 ERA. Nashville Sounds (30 W - 21 L) - Sounds batters are youngest in the league (24.1) while the pitchers (27.3) are closer to the 27.4 average age for International League hurlers. - Offense has been a tick below average at .751 OPS and 5.06 R/G compared to league averages of .760 OPS and 5.13 R/G. - Pitchers 4.10 ERA is third lowest in the 20 team league, while their 2.23 K/BB is fourth best, and their 0.69 HR9 is thee lowest so far. All told, given the youth of all the teams in general, the especially slow start by the Wilson bats, plus the pitching struggles outside of Nashville, and all four teams being on the right side of .500 after forty fifty some games is pretty impressive.