sveumrules

At this point it's probably going to take something closer to McGonigle (8/$150M) or Griffin (9/$140M) money to extend Made. Obviously you still do it if Jesus is amenable, but I'd imagine it will cost almost double the 8/$82M that Jackson signed for.

Yup. The league as a whole is at +290.1 runs on batter initiated challenges, or +9.7 runs on average. At a lowly +6.9 runs the Brewers have cost themselves 2.8 runs below average. The league as a whole is at +213.3 runs on catcher initiated challenges, or +7.1 runs on average. The Brewers at +8.6 runs are 1.5 runs above average. The grand sum of the Brewers ABS activity this year has cost them about 1.3 runs below average. If they were the very best at challenging as both hitters and catchers they would have gained around 10.3 runs, one whole Win. Some would call such a performance "horrifcially bad", others might call it marginal in the grand scheme of things.

There are 335 batters with at least 150 PA so far this year. As a hitter Gary has +1.9 runs which ranks 21st on that leaderboard. There are 60 catchers with at least 100 PA so far this year. As a catcher Gary has +2.4 runs which ranks 40th on that leaderboard. To me that looks like someone who has been well above average as a hitter and slightly below average as a catcher, not someone who has been historically awful.

On a team level the range from top to bottom for Catcher Initiated Challenges (behind the plate) is +12.3 runs (MIN) down to +4.4 runs (PIT), a difference of 7.9 runs (not even one Win). The Brewers have been pretty good here at +8.6 runs (6th) with their 166 reviews the 3rd most. On a team level the range from top to bottom for Hitter Initiated Challenges is +13.5 runs (CIN) down to +6.0 runs (TBR), a difference of 7.5 runs (again not even one Win). The Brewers 80 reviews are the fewest and their +6.9 runs are 27th. For a sense of comparative scale, the top to bottom range on a team level for base running is +9.9 BsR (WAS) down to -7.6 BsR (LAA). A much wider range of 17.5 runs top to bottom, but we don't see people obsessing over everybody's BsR numbers. Definitely some Shiny New Toy Syndrome going on relative to its actual impact on wins and losses. If the players could see the box while standing at the plate (or resting on one knee behind it) like we the viewers can sitting at home I'm sure they'd all be just as good at ABS as we are.

Here is how I would personally assess the Top Dozen offenses in MLB so far (all stats thru July 30th)... TOP TIER (3) DODGERS 5.16 R/G (3rd) | 113 wRC+ (1st) +5.75 WPA (1st) | +81.92 RE24 (2nd) CUBS 5.17 R/G (2nd) | 111 wRC+ (3rd) +5.07 WPA (3rd) | +77.76 RE24 (3rd) NATIONALS 5.45 R/G (1st) | 112 wRC+ (2nd) +4.16 WPA (3rd) | +89.34 RE24 (1st) [pretty straight forward here. These three offenses occupy the top three spots in each of the four most telling context neutral and context dependent macro measures of performance] NOT QUITE TOP TIER (2) BREWERS 5.06 R/G (5th) | 105 wRC+ (6th) +4.04 WPA (4th) | +54.16 RE24 (4th) PIRATES 5.14 R/G (4th) | 107 wRC+ (4th) -1.57 WPA (15th) | +44.82 RE24 (5th) [the only other teams over five runs per game. Brewers have a big edge in WPA due to being better with RISP (114 vs 107 wRC+), in high leverage (94 vs 86 wRC+), and medium leverage (111 vs 107 wRC+) while the Pirates have done more damage with bases empty (107 vs 96 wRC+) and in low leverage (112 vs 102 wRC+). Also can't extricate the offense from the defense and the Pirates 3.89 FIP has yielded 4.81 actual runs allowed per game compared to the Brewers 3.59 FIP yielding 3.83 actual runs allowed per game] NEXT SEVEN (7) BRAVES 4.87 R/G (6th) | 99 wRC+ (18th) +2.03 WPA (6th) | +36.39 RE24 (6th) WHITE SOX 4.78 R/G (7th) | 102 wRC+ (12th) +1.49 WPA (8th) | +24.94 RE24 (7th) TWINS 4.71 R/G (9th) | 103 wRC+ (11th) +1.36 WPA (9th) | +24.19 RE24 (8th) YANKEES 4.64 R/G (10th) | 103 wRC+ (9th) +2.24 WPA (5th) | +19.27 RE24 (9th) ORIOLES 4.60 R/G (11th) | 103 wRC+ (10th) +0.99 WPA (10th) | +7.09 RE24 (11th) ASTROS 4.59 R/G (12th) | 104 wRC+ (8th) +1.72 WPA (7th) | +8.36 RE24 (10th) RAYS 4.45 R/G (14th) | 105 wRC+ (5th) -0.22 WPA (11th) | -6.15 RE24 (13th) [pretty clear separation in performance between this group of teams and the Brewers / Pirates in the tier above. This is the tier (or worse) that the Brewers used to be in for many years until recently. For 2018 thru 2021 before the universal DH the wRC+, WPA, and RE24 results and rankings are for position players only so as not to be dragged down by pitchers hitting for comparison purposes...] 2018 BREWERS 4.63 R/G (12th) | 105 wRC+ (10th) +10.85 WPA (2nd) | +81.65 RE24 (10th) 2019 BREWERS 4.75 R/G (17th) | 102 wRC+ (12th) +5.47 WPA (11th) | +44.85 RE24 (15th) 2021 BREWERS 4.56 R/G (12th) | 98 wRC+ (19th) +1.48 WPA (14th) | +56.74 RE24 (12th) 2022 BREWERS 4.48 R/G (10th) | 104 wRC+ (11th) +1.11 WPA (10th) | +4.96 RE24 (15th) 2023 BREWERS 4.49 R/G (17th) | 93 wRC+ (21st) -5.09 WPA (21st) | -32.96 RE24 (19th) 2024 BREWERS 4.80 R/G (6th) | 105 wRC+ (11th) +0.33 WPA (10th) | +49.10 RE24 (8th) 2025 BREWERS 4.98 R/G (3rd) | 107 wRC+ (9th) +4.74 WPA (4th) | +88.84 RE24 (3rd) 2026 BREWERS 5.06 R/G (5th) | 105 wRC+ (6th) +4.04 WPA (4th) | +54.16 RE24 (4th) 2018-23 BREWERS 4.55 R/G (15th) | 100 wRC+ (16th) +9.52 WPA (9th) | +121.15 RE24 (14th) 2024-26 BREWERS 4.93 R/G (4th) | 105 wRC+ (7th) +9.11 WPA (4th) | +192.09 RE24 (4th) [ultimately hard for me to be too upset about only having something like the fourth best offense this year (& for the last three seasons now) especially when it represents such measurable progress over the 2018-23 versions, and when it looks like continued growth is still possible between the young players already in MLB plus the bevy of prospects imminent over the next couple years (& beyond). the Dodgers first postseason appearance of their current run was in 2013. It took them eleven tries until 2024 to win their first World Series after a full season, and they only needed a generational superstar on a barely legal contract to finally get it done. The Yankees have only been to one World Series (& lost) in the fifteen full seasons since their last WS win in 2009. These things take time, even for the most advantaged franchises in the sport. This is the eighth year of the Brewers current run, for as long as its been going on already it's still only just getting started]

Kind of like a Jake Bauers defensive profile, corner utility guy. Starts in the field so far this year are LF (x27), 1B (x22), 3B (x17).

With 112 IP of 89 ERA- | 100 FIP- as a Brewer DL Hall has essentially been lefty Grant Anderson (117 IP of 83 ERA- | 98 FIP- before tonight). Obviously DL hasn't been quite as healthy needing an extra year to throw five fewer innings, but for guys who are 5th/6th on the leverage tree behind Megill, Uribe, Ashby and Patrick (plus hopefully bumped down a spot or two after the deadline) those are about as good of results as one can probably expect realistically.

Looks like the fitted version is sold out at MLB Shop, but they do still have the adjustable version available at the HOF store. Could maybe try the Clubhouse Store at AmFam too if you are local.

Between Woodruff, Bauers and Sanchez the Brewers have like $26M coming off the books for next year, The only guys likely to see big increases in Arby are Contreras, Vaughn, Megill, and Turang. Guys going into year one of Arby are Priester, Sal, Ortiz, Hamilton, Gasser, DL Hall, and Grant Anderson, none of whom should probably be in line for a particularly large number. Guys like Koenig, Perkins, and Rob Z are also listed as possible Arb One guys but could all be in danger of non tender at this point. Barring Bauers accepting whatever version of the Qualifying Offer might make its way into the new CBA there should be plenty of money to retain Vaughn for veteran depth even if it doesn't look to be a slam dunk value from a $/WAR standpoint.

I'd guess it goes to whoever wins the NL East. Weiss for getting ATL back to the playoffs after finishing below .500 last year, or Mattingly for turning the Phils phortunes around when he took over, with their 47 W - 30 L record the 3rd best in MLB behind the Dodgers at 47 W - 29 L and Brewers at 51 W - 26 L since that date.

Top of Rotation Starters 01 Misio 181 IP of 62 ERA- | 63 FIP- 02 Harrison 83 IP of 72 ERA- | 73 FIP- Playoff Starters w/ Health Questions 03 Henderson 63 IP of 61 ERA- | 71 FIP- 04 Drohan 76 IP of 76 ERA- | 72 FIP- Leverage Relievers 05 Uribe 162 IP of 56 ERA- | 72 FIP- 06 Ashby 141 IP of 59 ERA- | 64 FIP- Sproat plus Prospects Yet to Debut 07 Sproat 86 IP of 120 ERA- | 112 FIP- 08 Tyson Hardin (yet to debut in MLB) 09 Bishop Letson (yet to debut in MLB) Middle Relievers 10 Patrick 196 IP of 84 ERA- | 87 FIP- 11 Hall 112 IP of 89 ERA- | 100 FIP- 12 Yoho 24 IP of 122 ERA- | 132 FIP- Back of Rotation / Long Man Candidates 13 Gasser 85 IP of 96 ERA- | 111 FIP- 14 Crow 18 IP of 128 ERA- | 197 FIP- 15 Colton Gordon (yet to debut in MLB) 16 Rodriguez 31 IP of 146 ERA- | 119 FIP- That's my best attempt at tiering the Brewers young pitching. Probably draw the No Trade / Would Trade line between Patrick and DL Hall. Don't think they will deal any of the Top 6 guys (unless they have serious concerns about Henderson's ability to stay healthy long term), If they were going to deal someone from the 07 to 10 range (Sproat, Hardin, Letson, Patrick) I would imagine it will be for someone with multiple years of team control remaining.

Looks like FanGraphs also adjusted some of the other rankings and slotted in a few of the recent draftees on the Brewers Board... After the aforementioned T111 guys looks like they have Letson, Knoth, and Fischer in the 45+FV tier. Ebel the Younger (#17) and Sawyer Strosnider (#22) both debuted with a 40+ FV while Julian Garcia (#29) lands in their 40 FV tier.

FanGraphs latest Top 111 prospects just posted including... #1 Jesus Made #25 Luis Pena #42 Alexander Frias #63 Brady Ebel #88 Tyson Hardin #106 Jeferson Quero

Tyson Hardin is probably the last guy in the system (that hasn't already seen MLB) who could still help the rotation out yet this season. Was named 2025 Minor League Pitcher of the Year in the system with 96 IP of 68 ERA- | 59 FIP- split between Wisconsin and Biloxi. Among 415 pitchers with at least 90 IP in the minors last year his 2.35 FIP was 3rd, his 5.65 K/BB ratio was 5th, and his 0.28 HR9 was 25th. Since being promoted to Nashville this year he has 58 IP of 71 ERA- | 67 FIP-. Among 75 pitchers with at least 50 IP in the International League this year some of his ranks are... 3.20 FIP (1st) | 0.47 HR9 (2nd) | 3.44 K/BB (5th) | 1.07 WHIP (6th) | 3.41 ERA (10th) | 47.7 GB% (12th) Believe the general scouting report is he is more of a sinker / strike thrower than a strike em out big stuff kind of guy, but either way has been one of the better performing pitchers in all of the minor leagues over the last two seasons after signing for $147K as 12th rounder in 2024. For me personally, my expectations are somewhere around that Chad Patrick / Shane Drohan kind of range.

It's like he throws the ball out of his ear. FanGraphs called Holub a "human trebuchet" on their Brewers list which is a pretty perfect description of his mechanics.

ONE) Since giving up 7 ER in his appearances on April 10th and April 14th, Megill has thrown 34 IP giving up only 5 ER for a 1.32 ERA that is the 6th lowest of 300 pitchers with at least 30 IP since April 16th. Anytime someone is running an ERA that low for that long they are due for a blow up. Scanning his game logs it looks like he has been trending towards that blow up even during this recent stretch of elite run prevention... 0416 to 0621 22 IP of 1.64 ERA | 1.41 xERA | 0.74 FIP 0622 to 0722 12 IP of 0.75 ERA | 3.83 xERA | 2.02 FIP That higher xERA over his last dozen innings is probably a pretty good indicator that he has been getting luckier of late. TWO) From 2013 to 2019 Yelich put up positive base running numbers every season en route to +30.5 BsR. In 2020 after shattering his knee cap he was at 0.0 BsR. From 2021 to 2025 Yelich was again positive on the bases every season to the tune of +19.1 BsR. So far this year he is at +0.5 BsR. His sprint speed has declined from the 80th percentile in 2024 (28.5 feet per second) to the 48th percentile this year (27.3 feet per second) per StatCast. He has been getting some breaks. Since returning for good from his back injury on May 17th Yelich has started 49 of 59 games. Would guess they will continue to give him occasional days off as he tries to regain his form. Arbitrary endpoint, sure, but going back to July 7th he's reached safely in 10 of 11 games played and is at 52 PA of 267/365/444 (125 wRC+) with an 11.5 BB% and 21.1 K% under the hood. From 2023 to 2025 he hit 279/366/460 (128 wRC+) with an 11.4 BB% and 22.9 K% under the hood. I know its anathema to suggest something even mildly positive about Yelich in the game threads (like his +1.27 Win Probability Added being 41st among 264 hitters with at least 200 PA this year) but maybe he is starting to feel a little better / more comfortable the farther out he gets from his injury?

Yeah, between their history of under-projecting the Brewers and the Brewers recent actual performance history that 31 W - 29 L feels more like a bottom 5% or bottom 10% outcome than a median projection. The Season to Date mode at FanGraphs projects them for a .603 W% rest of season getting them to that first 100 win season. I generally use the two options as kind of the low and high range for my expectations, and feels like that tracks pretty well for this year's team. Like they've been playing at a 101/102 win pace for the season as a whole, and a 108/109 win pace since the .500 start after the first 26 games, but I still think most Brewers fans would take the under on them actually winning 100 games.

Yeah, looks like their longest stretches of mediocrity or worse going back to 2024 are... 070124 to 080424 12 W - 15 L 090124 to 092924 13 W - 13 L 032725 to 051725 21 W - 25 L 081725 to 092825 19 W - 21 L 032626 to 042526 13 W - 13 L Even with the slow 21 W - 25 L start to 2025 they still rebounded to 32 W - 28 L by game 60 of the season. Last 60 games of 2024 they were 34 W - 26 L even with the poor July and a .500 September. The five combined stretches above end up at 78 W - 87 L for a .473 W% with those 165 games representing 38.7% of the 426 games they have played from 2024 thru yesterday. Of course that leaves a 176 W - 85 L record (.674 W%) for the other 261 games they have played since 2024. I don't think they'll necessarily maintain their current .627 W% rest of season, but a .600 W% (36 Wins) would get them their first 100 Win season in franchise history, and a .567 W% (34 Wins) would get them to a new franchise record. If they win 32 games rest of the way (.533 W%) they will end up with 96 wins which would be 13 wins ahead of the 83 W FanGraphs had them down for preseason, running their total to an even +100 Wins for the ten full seasons from 2016 thru 2026.

First of all, to see a bunch of (presumably) grown men, many of whom may even qualify as middle aged (or beyond) on an internet message board talking about their FEELINGS...now therein lies the true magic of baseball. I'm nearly verklempt just thinking about it. But for real though, I believe it was Tommy Lasorda who said something along the lines of every team wins 54 games and every team loses 54 games so it's really only a 54 game season. The actual breaks almost surely aren't that clean - good teams have more "easy" wins, bad teams have more "automatic" losses, mediocre teams have more games that hang in the balance - but sticking with Tommy's math (& after seeing how he treated umpires & the Philly Phanatic I know I certainly don't want to get into an argument with Lasorda) the Brewers went 82 W - 26 L (.759 W%) during Murphy's first two completed seasons as manager in those meaningful swing games. This year's model currently has 38 losses so they are are for sure losing at least another two dozen games (& if they don't I'll gladly be wrong). Their lead for the #2 seed is 4.5 Games, their lead in the Division is 7.0 Games. Traded away Peralta (6.1 rWAR), plus Durbin & Collins (2.6 WAR each). Quintana's 131 veteran innings out the door (1.8 rWAR). Priester hurt for the year (3.6 rWAR). Zerpa bad then hurt before the season even really began (-0.7 rWAR). Mess of 40 innings for Woodford, Kuhnel, Koenig (-0.4 rWAR each). Less than zero contributions for Rengifo (-0.7 WAR), Perkins (-0.6 WAR), Jones (-0.5 WAR), and even Sal (-0.2 WAR). That's 20.6 WAR in the red between losses from last season plus poor performances so far in this one (not to mention all the games Murphy has cost them batting Yelich leadoff, or playing Sal instead of Vaughn, or playing Vaughn instead of Lara, or playing Perkins at all, not to mention all the times he called upon the wrong reliever) and this team is still on a 100 plus win pace. Truly remarkable stuff.

Had noticed he had a couple nice outings recently in the boxes with 6 IP | 0 ER | 2 H | 3 BB | 10 K after positing 12 IP | 13 ER | 15 H | 12 BB | 16 K (with 7 wild pitches and 4 balks !!) over his first five appearances. Obviously small samples and scant glimpses all around when it comes to DSL pitchers but he's also listed at 6'5" 200 lbs and doesn't turn 18 until December so lots to like from little we've got to go on.

The Brewers gambled almost $40M on Woddruff these last three years. He threw 110 IP of 74 ERA- | 76 FIP- for 2.8 rWAR | 3.0 fWAR. Was that a good ROI within the typical $/WAR framework? Probably not, but the Brewers did go 15 W - 6 L in Woody's 21 starts so not all was lost. I still remember the early season IGT comment that "the qualifying offer debacle probably cost this team a real chance at a playoff spot." Could that $40M have been spent better and bought more than three wins? Maybe yes, maybe no. How much did Rhys Hoskins (who almost everyone thought was a perfect signing for the Brewers at the time) provide for $34M? How is Kyle Tucker doing for $60M this year, or Bo Bichette for $42M? What we do know is that even with all that money wrapped up in a Brandon Woodruff who mostly wasn't available the Brewers 253 W - 171 L record since 2024 is just a half game behind the Dodgers at 254 W - 171 L over that stretch. They have won the Division by ten games, by five games, and currently lead by seven games over these last three seasons. If the Brewers were still able to have all that team success while paying Woodruff almost $40M it wouldn't surprise me at all if they were interested in rolling the dice again for considerably less money. Can Never Have Enough Pitching.

He wouldn't need to take up a roster spot if he was signed to minor league deal.

2023 Brewers .309 wOBA (22nd) .310 xwOBA (26th) 2024 Brewers .319 wOBA (10th) .314 xwOBA (13th) 2025 Brewers .322 wOBA (10th) .314 xwOBA (16th) 2026 Brewers .324 wOBA (6th) .320 xwOBA (13th) In addition to the year over year improvement this is also the third straight year that the Brewers actual wOBA has outpaced their expected wOBA. Overall since 2024 the +.005 gap between their .321 actual wOBA and .316 expected wOBA has been matched by only the Red Sox (.320 wOBA | .315 xwOBA) and Rockies (.307 wOBA | .301 xwOBA) who are probably getting most of their advantage from notoriously hitter friendly home stadiums versus the Brewers likely getting most of their advantage from their team speed.

There is a small degree of correlation with the performance of every player on the roster during that stretch. Of course Yelich hitting for a 90 wRC+ overall since moving to primary leadoff hasn't been a driving factor. But his +0.32 WPA indicates he hasn't hurt the team overall from a Win Probability Added standpoint given the contextual game factors he faced over the course of his cumulative PAs either. 116 PA of 84 wRC+ with bases empty 57 PA of 128 wRC+ with RISP 71 PA of 77 wRC+ low leverage 27 PA of 133 wRC+ high leverage That's how you get a positive WPA with a below average wRC+.

What I'm saying is that despite Yelich being a below average hitter overall since moving to primary leadoff (90 wRC+), he has at least timed his few positive outcomes well (+0.32 WPA), so it hasn't had nearly as deleterious an effect on the team's fortunes (MLB best .646 W% over last 48 games) as the constant IGT complaining might imply. Could the Brewers have played even better than their MLB best .646 W% (104/105 Win full season pace) over the last 48 games? Could they have played even better than their .626 W% (101/102 Win full season pace) that is 1/2 game behind the Dodgers for the whole season? Sure, I guess, if you believe their True Talent Level is over 100 Wins. I know that coming into the season I didn't expect them to win 100 games so it's hard for me to complain too much about the specific details of how they are proving me wrong to this point and blowing past my expectations (again). I'm mostly just kicking back and enjoying it (again).