Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

sveumrules

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,922

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    213

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Fingers won AL Cy Young and MVP in 1981, plus was a big part of the 1982 team before injury knocked him out down the stretch. Over his two prime level seasons with the Brewers he had 157 IP of 1.83 ERA and 7.5 rWAR. He followed that up with a decent comeback season in 1984 throwing 46 IP of 1.96 ERA and 1.6 rWAR before falling off the cliff in his final season. Hoffman only had one good year with the Brewers (54 IP of 1,83 ERA and 2.4 rWAR) before falling off the cliff.
  2. sveumrules
    Silver Slugger finalists were announced today and the Brewer have a few contenders... First Base Matt Olson 122 wRC+ | 41 HR | 99 R | 83 RBI Rafael Devers 136 wRC+ | 37 HR | 88 R | 98 RBI Alec Burleson 125 wRC+ | 26 HR | 89 R | 116 RBI Jake Bauers 143 wRC+ | 26 HR | 93 R | 86 RBI Second Base Brandon Lowe 121 wRC+ | 35 HR | 94 R | 96 RBI Brice Turang 127 wRC+ | 21 HR | 102 R | 100 RBI Outfield Pete Crow-Armstrong 157 wRC+ | 45 HR | 119 R | 107 RBI James Wood 142 wRC+ | 30 HR | 106 R | 77 RBI Jordan Walker 119 wRC+ | 29 HR | 97 R | 102 RBI Seiya Suzuki 134 wRC+ | 26 HR | 96 R | 86 RBI Fernando Tatis Jr 131 wRC+ | 25 HR | 96 R | 83 RBI Jackson Chourio 130 wRC+ | 25 HR | 96 R | 75 RBI Utility Sal Stewart 112 wRC+ | 32 HR | 87 R | 112 RBI Bauers 143 wRC+ | 26 HR | 93 R | 86 RBI Tatis Jr 131 wRC+ | 25 HR | 96 R | 83 RBI Team Cubs (114 wRC+ | 220 HR | 850 R) Nationals (103 wRC+ | 210 HR | 820 R) Dodgers (111 wRC+ | 204 HR | 801 R) Brewers (107 wRC+ | 154 HR | 832 R) Apparently the voters assessed the offense as pretty dang good (must not have been regular IGT readers).
  3. sveumrules
    Because it takes a village to build what the Brewers have built over the last decade since Stearns / Arnold arrived. Here is the link to their staff directory page from MLB.
  4. sveumrules
    The good, appears to have a disciplined plate approach with 71 BB to 52 K this year and 241 BB to 223 K for his career. His 1.08 BB/K ratio from 2023 to 2026 is the best in the Brewers system (Dylan O'Rae is 2nd at 0.89) and ranks 13th out of 1,044 minor leaguers with at least 1,000 PA over that time frame. The bad, struggles to throw out runners. Had a 15.4 CS% this year compared to a 20.6 CS% for the Southern League as a whole. The maybe, power. Had 18 home runs over 386 PA this year with the juiced ball versus 15 HR over 1,214 PA prior to this season.
  5. sveumrules
    Last year there were 88 pitchers in all of the minor leagues who threw at least 60 IP during their age 18, 19, or 20 season. The Brewers had 12 of those 88 pitchers - Manuel Rodriguez (133 IP), Jarrette Bonet (118 IP), Ethan Dorchies (113 IP), Tyler Renz (97 IP), Enderson Mercado (96 IP), Carlos Carra (96 IP), Josh Knoth (87 IP), Miqueas Mercedes (79 IP), Jayden Dubanewicz (79 IP), Diustin Mayroquin (69 IP), Hayden Robinson (63 IP), and Joey Broughton (60 IP). The most any other organization had was Pittsburgh with six. Four other teams (ARI, ATL, CIN, LAA) had five each.
  6. sveumrules
    Your eyes do not deceive you...85.6 FG% and 95.9 XP% in 2025 versus 83.7 FG% and 94.4 XP% so far this year.
  7. sveumrules
    I'd personally have Misio fourth given the rest of the NL field... Ohtani (7.4 fWAR | 6.4 bWAR) Turang (5.9 fWAR | 7.3 bWAR) Misio (7.4 rWAR | 6.6 fWAR | 6.5 bWAR) Sanchez (6.3 rWAR | 6.2 fWAR | 8.1 bWAR) De La Cruz (6.4 fWAR | 5.6 bWAR) Gabriel Moreno (5.4 fWAR | 6.7 bWAR) Bregman (5.5 fWAR | 5.8 bWAR) Pages (4.5 fWAR | 6.0 bWAR) Otto Lopez (5.9 fWAR | 6.1 bWAR) ...don't play fantasy so I rarely look at runs scored or batted in, but that Turang finished with 100 RBI has got to be one of the most incomprehensible things about this season. If someone told me at any point between 2018 and 2024 that Brice Turang would have a 100 RBI season, I probably would have sarcastically responded "sure buddy, and the Brewers are gonna win the World Series too I betcha"
  8. sveumrules
    We'll see how things play out but I think Bauers accepting the QO, Vaughn getting traded, Adams getting backup 1B, and Fischer / Burke starting the year in AAA for some needed seasoning would be the best possible outcome.
  9. sveumrules
    Raleigh signed when he was still three years from free agency. The yearly breakdown on his 6/$105M is... ($10M signing bonus) $1M | $11M | $12M | $23M (x3) | $20M vesting option ($2M buyout) The main difference is that Cal only got 3/$34M for his first three years while Contreras is already making $14.5M before the big money would start kicking in to cover what would have been his free agent years. I'd guess that Contreras and his rep want to eclipse the current $23.1M AAV record for a catcher on any extension that is signed, so something like 5/$120M minimum. If they wanted to stick with his $14.5M for this year that would be $26.375M per the last four years. Throw a $9.5M signing bonus on there with the WS windfall, keep Bill's salary at $14.5M this year, and it would be an even $24M per the last four years.
  10. sveumrules
    Between having the QO attached, only one good year, and the CBA uncertainty, Bauers has plenty limiting his market this year. Accept the QO, have another good year, and he’d be better positioned for a long term payday with a two year track record, no QO hanging over his head, and the labor situation sorted so teams know what parameters they’re working with.
  11. sveumrules
    2027 Steamer projections are out and they LOVE them some Luke Adams... 228/337/424 (114 wRC+) 10.7 BB% | 23.2 K% Only 87 players are projected for a 114 wRC+ or higher. Some other Brewers prospects of note... Blake Burke 231/292/416 (94 wRC+) 6.9 BB% | 29.5 K% Andrew Fischer 206/291/414 (93 wRC+) 9.8 BB% | 38.5 K% Josh Adamczewski 240/312/375 (92 wRC+) 8.7 BB% | 24.8 K% Jett Williams 226/306/382 (92 wRC+) 9.5 BB% | 25.6 K% Jesus Made 244/303/369 (87 wRC+) 7.2 BB% | 19.9 K% Braylon Payne 224/279/403 (86 wRC+) 6.4 BB% | 33.0 K% Matthew Wood 216/310/344 (85 wRC+) 10.9 BB% | 20.9 K% Cameron Wagoner 4.02 ERA | 4.10 FIP Tyson Hardin 4.16 ERA | 4.18 FIP **League average ERA/FIP was 4.18 in 2026**
  12. sveumrules
    MLBTR Top 50 Free Agents article has Bauers accepting the QO for whatever that is or isn't worth.
  13. sveumrules
    If any kind of cap/floor situation is agreed upon it would most likely be slow rolled over a few seasons to give teams some time to adjust.
  14. sveumrules
    Bauers doesn't turn 32 until October of next year, he'll be playing his age 31 season in 2027. Goldschmidt has 1,050 PA over the last three years against RHP with a 77 wRC+. He should be a short side only platoon bat at this point with 517 PA of 157 wRC+ vs LHP over that same stretch. Between the strikeouts and limited professional reps at 1B, Fischer has plenty to work on in AAA if Bauers does indeed accept the QO. If he doesn't sign a pre-debut extension and the new CBA doesn't drastically change how service time is calculated he'd likely spend some time in AAA to start the season anyway to get that extra year of team control. Pratt & Lara signed pre-debut extensions and they still let them marinate for awhile. Ward isn't as extreme as Goldy, but still does most of his damage versus southpaws (130 wRC+ vs LHP last three years compared to a 106 wRC+ vs RHP), is two years older than Bauers, and put up -8 DRS | -7 FRV in his 353 innings at 3B (with most of that coming all the way back in 2018). It'd be a pretty big risk to assume he could play competent defense as a primary 1B for a full season (especially on a team with World Series aspirations).
  15. sveumrules
    The QO is worth $23M this year. That is about 852% of his 2026 salary.
  16. sveumrules
    Moreno (+14 DRS | +9 FRV) had a much better year by the numbers than William did (-1 DRS | -6 FRV). Voting is 75% NL managers and coaches with the other 25% coming from some amalgamation of the various available metrics.
  17. sveumrules
    Time will tell where the market plays out, but the Athletic estimates are by KLaw who I generally tend to take with a large grain of salt. I know I wouldn’t be too excited if my favorite team gave 4/$90M to a 31 year old 1B with poor defensive metrics and one good year at the plate. MLBTR isn’t out yet, but Bowden at 4/$56M for Bauers a lot closer to the FG estimates than the KLaw figures. If Bauers gets and accepts a QO that’s a pretty good sign his agent didn’t think that kind of contract would be out there for him on the open market.
  18. sveumrules
    Believe careers are more shortening because of ramped up PED testing, and pitchers chasing velocity / spin above all else. From 2005 (first year with a positive PED test) through 2026, there have been eleven position players to put up at least 30 WAR from age 30 onward, plus another 22 with between 20 and 30 WAR. From 1983 through 2004 (roughly the same amount of time before that), there were 24 players to put up at least 30 WAR from age 30 onward, plus another 34 with between 20 and 30 WAR. The best Age 30 onward player since 2005 (Adrian Beltre with 44.4 WAR) would be sixth among Thirty Somethings from 1983 to 2004. David Ortiz is 3rd since 2005 with 36.1 WAR during his thirties, that total would rank 13th (behind the legendary Tony Phillips) on the 1983 to 2004 leaderboard. The most innings anyone has thrown in their 30's since 2005 is Verlander (2,023 IP) before a drop off to Bartolo Colon (1,864), RA Dickey (1,840), and Max Scherzer (1,808) as the only other guys over 1,800 IP. From 1983 to 2004 there were twelve pitchers over 2,000 IP and another nine with at least 1,800 IP in their thirties. Guys like Utley and King Felix making headway on the last few ballots is a good sign that the voters are slowly coming around to the changing landscape.
  19. sveumrules
    Agree with most everything here except that Turang would be more expensive to lock up than Contreras. Brice having three Arby's seasons left versus only one for William makes a pretty big difference. On a theoretical six year deal for Brice that would run through his age 32 season I'd guess the salary figures on a potential extension would come in around say $10M, $13M, $16M, $27M, $27M, $27M which adds up to 6/$120M. Throw another year at $27M on there and it gets to 7/$147M. Same general price range as hypothesized for William in the article, but lower AAV with the extra year on each iteration. Think one of the more interesting angles of the offseason is that any potential Made extension probably needs to be in the neighborhood of $140M to $150M like the McGonigle / Griffin extensions too. Would imagine the agents for Brice and William would want any extension their already established, star level clients potentially sign (coming off a WS win) to be for more money than a teenager yet to debut. Maybe something like...Made (9/$145M), Turang (7/$150M), Contreras (6/$150M). I'd also be more inclined to go year to year with Brice considering Jesus, Pena, and the Super Ebel Bros are in the system as potential replacements over the next couple two tree years versus the pipeline being mostly dry behind Bazooka Bill with all of the injury issues Quero and Dinges have dealt with.
  20. sveumrules
    Dustin May projected at 2/$30M by author Ben Clemens in today's Top 50 Free Agents article at FanGraphs. Median crowdsource came in at 3/$48M.
  21. sveumrules
    FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agents is out today and Bauers comes in with a median crowdsource of 3/$51M while the article's author Ben Clemens predicts 2/$38M. If the Brewers offer the QO ($23M), and Bauers representation thinks the best they can do on the open market is around $50M, might make sense to just take the QO. If he puts up another year in line with 2026, then hits the market with no QO, the $50M will still be there. If he doesn't quite live up to his 2026 (say regression to around a 125 wRC+) would only need to sign for something like 2/$27M to break even as it were.
  22. sveumrules
    They literally did just that with Contreras last offseason. He had a $12M option for 2026, but they instead agreed upon a $9.4M salary for 2026 with that $15.5M club option for 2027. Megill is a possible trade candidate, but we'd probably get back a lesser return than we got for Williams (Durbin / Nestor) and most posters weren't too thrilled with that return at the time (though of course it worked out better than fine). Given the top to bottom depth of the minors, and the MLB club's position atop the win curve, its much less of a necessity for the Brewers to trade everybody and build out the farm system for future seasons.
  23. sveumrules
    Not a perfect one to one comparison (few are) but the situation I keep coming back to with regards to Contreras is how the 2021 Braves handled Freeman after winning the World Series. They did the "smart" thing and let the Dodgers pay for his "decline" years while trading for Matt Olson to take his place. It kinda worked too, the Braves have won the 3rd most regular season games in MLB since 2022 and Olson has been the 2nd best 1B in MLB since 2022 with 3526 PA of 132 wRC+ for 21.1 WAR. Of course, Freeman has been the best 1B in MLB since 2022 with 3360 PA of 143 wRC+ for 24.8 WAR, helping the Dodgers to two World Series wins (& picking up a WS MVP of his own along the way). Meanwhile, for all their regular season success, the Braves have followed up their WS win with a 5 W - 12 L postseason record. The numerical production might be able to be nearly replicated somehow, but replacing the kind of gravitas that Freeman/Contreras bring to an organization is a much more difficult proposition.
  24. sveumrules
    In 2025 Contreras played through the busted up finger which surely impacted his offensive numbers, and this year he went into an almost two month funk that lined up pretty well with the devastating earthquakes in Venezuela which dragged down his seasonal line considerably... Thru June 23rd 318 PA of 113 wRC+ June 24th thru August 19th 191 PA of 72 wRC+ August 20th to end of Regular Season 131 PA of 152 wRC+ Postseason 58 PA of 185 wRC+ Chourio had a similar progression at 200 PA of 137 wRC+ thru June 23rd, 242 PA of 103 wRC+ from June 24th thru August 25th, then 131 PA of 167 wRC+ thru the end of the regular season. Pretty sure that BRef does not award credit to catchers for pitch framing in their WAR calculations either. For his four years with the Brewers BRef has him at -1 FLD and 15.3 WAR versus +15.2 FLD and 18.0 WAR at FanGraphs. I'd also imagine on account of the various intangibles (managing the staff, clubhouse leadership) that the team values him more highly than publicly available WAR numbers.
  25. sveumrules
    Cal Raleigh signed for 6/$105M when he was still three years from FA. Contreras isn't signing for less than that when he is only one year away from FA (& coming off World Series MVP). Would think the bare minimum is topping the 5/$115.5M that Realmuto signed for back in 2021.
×
×
  • Create New...