sveumrules

Yeah, FanGraphs has been way under-estimating the Brewers run scoring capability for the last few years as well. Since Murphy took over the Brewers have scored 4.98 R/G over 475 team games with an upward year over year trend going back to 2022 (4.48 to 4.49 to 4.80 to 4.98 to 5.19 R/G so far this year). FanGraphs has the Brewers rest of season projection at 4.66 R/G, which is even considerably lower than their 4.98 BaseRuns estimate so far this year.

Ketson Huira

After October 19th 2018 the Brewers were tied with the Dodgers at three games each in the NLCS. One win at home away from the World Series. At that point there were only three teams left to divide up the World Series Odds amongst with Boston already having won the ALCS. FanGraphs computers said the WS Win percentages were BOS (64.9%), LAD (26.1%), MIL (9.0%). This year we still have a dozen games left and like half the league still has some kind of WS odds with the playoff field yet to be decided. Right now the FanGraphs computers think the Brewers have a 13.6% chance to win the World Series, greater than when they were just one game away back in 2018. Second best in MLB behind the Dodgers (25.7%) and ahead of the Rays (10.1%). We've come a long way, there is a long way yet to go.

Rodriguez has always been homer prone with a career 1.21 HR9 entering the season, but yeah, his 2.18 HR9 this year is almost double that. Last year 0.67 HR9 was league average for the Southern League, this year it has been 1.23 HR9. FanGraphs has ERA- | FIP- | xFIP- on the player pages which accounts for the league environment and Rodriguez is at 96 ERA- | 111 FIP- | 105 xFIP- which considering he has thrown the most innings in the Southern League as the youngest pitcher (besides Cam Caminiti who got called up for a half dozen starts at the end of the year) is perfectly cromulent. Worst case he is probably like Carlos Rodriguez where he ends up as an up/down arm because of the lack of strikeouts and accompanying HR propensity is too much to overcome against MLB hitters. Best realistic case scenario is maybe something more like Bryse Wilson where he is able to carve out a decent career as a backend starter / long man out of the pen.

Googling back through the years Vegas preseason over/unders haven't really been all that much better or different than FanGraphs preseason projections... 2017 FG: 70 LV: 69.5 2018 FG: 80 LV: 83.5 2019 FG: 81 LV: 86.5 2021 FG: 83 LV: 83.5 2022 FG: 90 LV: 88.5 2023 FG: 86 LV: 85.5 2024 FG: 80 LV: 77.5 2025 FG: 81 LV: 82.5 2026 FG: 83 LV: 84.5 Looks like the over would have hit eight of the last nine seasons in Vegas too.

LF has been trending down offensively for a bit now and they generally get dinged a little from a WAR standpoint too because of the negative positional adjustment. The first three seasons (2002 to 2004) that FanGraphs has positional splits league average for LF was a 113 wRC+, though Barry Bonds putting up 1,679 PA of 233 wRC+ over those three seasons may have skewed things upward a bit. The next six years (2005 to 2010) it dipped down to between a 105 and 109 wRC+, before a further dip the next seven years (2011 to 2017) to between a 97 and 105 wRC+. 2018 to 2023 saw a nice bounce back for LF sitting between a 104 and 107 wRC+ for five of the six years, and now the last three years it's been at 102 wRC+. Universal DH is probably eating into the LF pool some too as more guys would have been forced into faking LF if they were on a NL club during the 2010's.

If I added & divided right the Win predictions in this thread averaged out to 91 (which the Brewers just hit today)

Because everyone's body is unique and most players have a natural swing path they are comfortable with? Why does any big, strong guy like Yandy Diaz (125 GB+ | 77 FB+ since 2021), Elly De La Cruz (116 GB+ | 81 FB+), Vlad Junior (114 GB+ | 88 FB+), Josh Bell (114 GB+ | 89 FB+), Nathaniel Lowe (112 GB+ | 83 FB+), etc hit so many balls on the ground? Mitchell only had 666 PA in the minor leagues, and another 910 PA in MLB. He's still pretty green for a 28 year old with MLB experience in parts of five seasons now. Still plenty of time to try and make adjustments now that he is just getting his first full season under the belt. Even with all his warts (too many ground balls and strikeouts, too BABIP reliant) and injury issues Garrett is one of 118 players with at least 850 PA in the outfield since 2022, some of his ranks... 865 PA (118th) | 5.7 WAR (52nd) 32.3 K% (114th) | .381 BABIP (1st) 53.0 GB% (5th) | 21.8 LD% (17th) +6.6 BsR (34th) | 10.4 BB% (24th) 36.4 HardHit% (24th) | .161 ISO (73rd) 113 wRC+ (35th) | +7.6 DEF (27th) Somewhat interestingly, Tyrone Taylor also has 5.7 WAR playing outfield since 2022. His +10.7 DEF and +7.1 BsR outpace Mitchell slightly, and his 1,482 PA are a full extra season of playing time, so why doesn't he have more WAR then? Because his fly ball heavy approach (42.8 FB% | 27th) has produced a below average .282 BABIP (89th), he rarely walks (5.1 BB% | 110th), and even with all the extra fly balls he barely hit for more power with a .173 ISO (56th). Put it all together and Taylor has a 93 wRC+ (89th) with a .289 OBP (105th).

Dang, catching strays for being too positive about the team with the best record in MLB this year, and last year, and overall since 2024 (after a game where we clinched the Season Series against the Cubs with another comeback win no less). Never change, IGTs. Baseball is a game of primarily negative outcomes. The Brewers have made outs in 66.8% of their plate appearances, and their .332 OBP is second best in MLB. Silver linings, I guess. The internet is a cesspool of negativity, who wants to contribute to that? Has Murphy got a single lineup right all season? The Brewers have posted a 107 wRC+ and scored 5.03 runs per game (both 3rd in MLB) despite his malfeasance. That is above my personal expectations entering the season, so I see it as more of a reason for celebration than derision. BaseRuns thinks they should only have scored about 4.87 runs per game, so the numbers back up that the offense has overachieved their inputs (again, they were +0.21 R/G last year). That extra +0.16 runs per game this year is the third largest positive differential between BaseRuns and actual R/G behind the White Sox (+0.17) and Cardinals (+0.20). This year, the Brewers are 1st in PA | 2nd in wRC+ | 1st in RBI with RISP, since Murphy took over in 2024 the Brewers are 1st in PA | 2nd in wRC+ | 1st in RBI with RISP. You don't think he has anything to do with that?

Ah, 6'5" lefty with big K (and BB) numbers. Makes sense.

In the macro they've improved because they've increased their runs scored per game by +0.56 while simultaneously decreasing their runs allowed per game by -0.44, which as you noted combine to increase their run differential from +0.23 R/G in 2022, to +1.23 R/G so far this year. If one wanted to dig a little deeper they could find that one reason for the offense scoring more runs is that they have improved greatly with RISP from 2022 to 2023 (22nd in PA | 6th in wRC+ | 15th in RBI) versus these last three seasons (1st in PA | 2nd in wRC+ | 1st in RBI). Their RISP opportunities increased along with their OBP, from .317 (15th during 2022 to 2023) up to .332 (2nd since 2024) and more balls in play (23.9 K% in 2022 to 21.5 K% in 2026). Massive improvement on the bases from +7.9 BsR (10th from 2022 to 2023) up to +42.8 BsR (1st by over 17 runs from 2024 to 2026) has helped too. On the run prevention side the 2022 to 2024 teams relied much more on their defense (+171 DRS and +88 FRV | both 2nd in MLB) with a 90 ERA- that was fourth, but a 99 FIP- that came in 15th. The raw -0.38 run gap between their 3.73 ERA and 4.11 FIP was the largest in MLB over that stretch. These last two years they've still gotten some help from the defense (+61 DRS | 8th and +28 FRV | 7th) but their 86 ERA- (1st) has been more in line with their peripherals (92 FIP- | t-3rd) with a smaller -0.26 run gap between their 3.55 ERA and 3.81 FIP. Looking at the individual peripheral components... 2022 to 24 106 K+ | 99 BB+ | 105 HR+ 2025 to 2026 113 K+ | 102 BB+ | 91 HR+ ...and the underlying numbers show Brewers pitchers have traded a small increase in walk rate for much larger improvements in striking out batters and limiting home runs.

Moneys, Frontado, and Matos the obvious names. Jose Rodriguez the fourth for his reported fielding acumen? Was the fifth a pitcher? Santiago Martinez sounded pretty encouraging before going down with injury, maybe Paul Hoff starting to get some liebe?

It's been a month since the trade deadline now and the Brewers 19 W - 11 L record since August 4th is the second best mark in MLB behind the Phillies at 19 W - 9 L and just ahead of TBR/TOR at 18 W - 11 L each. Their run of increasing their W% both pre/post deadline and year over year during the Murph Era is looking pretty uncanny... 2024 pre (61 W - 46 L | .570 W%) post (32 W - 23 L | .582 W%) 2025 pre (64 W - 44 L | .593 W%) post (33 W - 21 L | .611 W%) 2026 pre (69 W - 43 L | .616 W%) so far (19 W - 11 L | .633 W%) Tracks with longer pattern of year over year macro improvements as we've transitioned out of Stearns/Counsell and into Arnold/Murphy... 2022 86 W - 76 L (.531 W%) +37 RunDiff | +57 BaseRuns 4.48 RS/G | 4.25 RA/G 2023 92 W - 70 L (.568 W%) +81 RunDiff | +34 BaseRuns 4.49 RS/G | 3.99 RA/G 2024 93 W - 69 L (.574 W%) +136 RunDiff | +91 BaseRuns 4.80 RS/G | 3.96 RA/G 2025 97 W - 65 L (.599 W%) +172 RunDiff | +134 BaseRuns 4.98 RS/G | 3.91 RA/G 2026 so far 88 W - 54 L (.620 W%) +174 RunDiff | +165 BaseRuns 5.04 RS/G | 3.81 RA/G That's 19 of 20 categories (W%, RunDiff, BaseRuns, RS/G, and RA/G times four years) that have each improved season over season since 2022 with the decreasing BaseRuns from 2022 to 2023 the lone holdout. Truly insane stuff.

Posted this in an IGT a few days ago, but they've been dominant for longer than since the All Star Break... First 26 Games 8 L (3rd most) | 109 AVG+ (27th) | -1.50 WPA (25th) | 95 LOB+ (19th) | 102 ERA- (16th) | 88 FIP- (7th) Last 116 Games 11 L (fewest) | 87 AVG+ (1st) | +9.32 WPA (2nd) | 107 LOB+ (2nd) | 75 ERA- (3rd) | 88 FIP- (2nd) Murphy's bullpen calls get maligned left and right, yet in 2024 Brewers relievers came in at +13.14 WPA (2nd), and in 2025 it was +5.03 WPA (10th), so far this year it's +7.63 WPA (2nd), and for his tenure as a whole it's +25.99 WPA (2nd) | 91 AVG+ (1st) | 104 LOB+ (1st) | 81 ERA- (2nd) | 91 FIP- (3rd). Guardians (+28.97 WPA) and Braves (+20.46 WPA) are the only other bullpens above plus twenty Win Probability Added over the last three seasons with Hader/Astros next at +17.97 WPA, then the annually dominant Padres pen in fifth at +15.39 WPA before a drop off to the Yankees at +12.23 WPA (less than half the Brewers total).

Thru April 30th 5.33 R/G over 30 games 142 wRC+ with RISP Month of May 4.15 R/G over 26 games 107 wRC+ with RISP June 1st to June 8th 9.50 R/G over eight games 154 wRC+ with RISP June 9th to August 16th 4.33 R/G over 61 games 87 wRC+ with RISP August 18th 22 runs in one game 336 wRC+ with RISP August 19th to September 4th 5.31 R/G over 16 games 124 wRC+ with RISP Twenty games (plus October) yet to go, but is it possible that pouring it on for 22 runs woke the Brewers offense from their midseason slumber?

It ain't over until the Brewers are losing by three runs in the fourth inning.

It's two series wins in eight years, didn't make their first playoff appearance until 2018. The Brewers 11 Postseason Wins since 2018 are 11th in MLB, and their 31 total games are 7th. Well over half the league would love to have 20 playoff losses since 2018 like the Brewers have. The Nationals are one spot ahead of them with 12 Postseason Wins since 2018, and those all came in their 2019 World Series year. The Rangers are also ahead of them with 13 Postseason Wins since 2018, again all coming in their 2023 World Series year. Individual mileage will certainly vary, but I know I wouldn't trade the last eight plus years of Brewers baseball for a single World Series run. The Dodgers made the postseason every year from 2013 to 2019 winning 33 more regualar season games than any other team over that stretch. They won zero WS. They finally broke their streak in the weirdened 2020 season, but went three more full seasons before finally winning a WS after a full season, and all they need to do it was to sign Ohtani to get over the top. Eleven full seasons (plus a generational superstar on a barely legal contract) was all it took the Dodgers. The Yankees are going on their 16th full season since their last World Series win, with only one WS loss in the interim. This is the ninth year of the Brewers run, and they've gotten better year over year for the last four seasons in a row now. The MLB roster is stacked with young, controllable talent with the #1 prospect baseball headlining one of the deepest farms yet on the horizon. Things are just getting started.

Lefty on the mound, so probably not.

Be facing a left handed starting pitcher

Yeah, the Brewers 3.57 FIP is lowest in MLB but they are still running an even lower 3.37 ERA with that -0.20 deficit the 8th best in MLB. That (along with just watching the games) would lead me to believe their actual performance is closer to their +43 DRS (6th) this year than it is their -3 FRV (16th) so far.

There was exactly one player traded at the deadline that would have changed the Brewers odds/outlook…and he predictably went to the Dodgers. For teams like the Brewers who are already far out in front of the pack with no glaring holes (like the Cubs pitching for one example), the overwhelming majority of deadline deals are about depth and buttressing a teams current odds. If the Brewers hold the #1 seed & May/JoJo pitch quality postseason innings the trade will be a win (until Ragsdale & Frias make their way to MLB and help STL get back to the playoffs).

August 4th was the first day Yelich hit fifth and since then he has hit fifth or sixth for 15 of the 16 games he has started (other game was clean up). Doesn't include tonight's 2 for 3 with a double and walk (which shakes out to a 369 wRC+ for the evening) but before that he was at 71 PA of 262/310/415 (100 wRC+) with a 5.6 BB% and 22.5 K% since that 08/04 date. StatCast thinks he has been unlucky with a .356 expected wOBA (about a 127 wRC+) but only a .316 actual wOBA during that stretch, Over the 276 PA before that (after returning from injury for good on May 17th through August 3rd) he was at 276 PA of 221/313/367 (90 wRC+) with a 10.9 BB% and 26.8 K%. StatCast wasn't all that impressed with a .311 expected wOBA and a .302 actual wOBA for that stretch. Obviously small, sliced up samples but that is a pretty big drop in walk and strikeout rates recently with it looking like Yelich has increased his swing / contact rates from 43.1% and 71.3% during the 05/17 to 08/03 stretch up to 47.1% and 75.7% for this more recent stretch hitting lower in the order.

Would be such a cool story if somehow Woodruff made it back for the Postseason and was able to contribute to some wins. Out of 182 starting pitchers with at least 100 IP over the last two years Woody comes in at... 138 FB%+ (1st) | 24.2 LA (1st) | 2.45 xERA (2nd) | 68 WHIP+ (2nd) | 75 AVG+ (3rd) | 211 K/BB+ (5th) | 14.7 IFFB% (7th) | 138 K+ (10th) | 77 FIP- (18th) | 35.2 HardHit% (18th) | 65 BB+ (19th) | 75 ERA- (26th) Only real blemishes on his record from a performance standpoint have been mediocre home run (99 HR+) and strand (101 LOB+) rates. Obviously would have loved it if his shoulder had help up for more innings, but his results when on the mound have been pretty remarkable with a heater diminished four to five MPH from peak form.

One of them was Patrick as the bulk guy (4 IP | 4 ER) on April 22nd after Hall opened with two scoreless. Chad started his next two appearances, and once again on May 27th, but has 41 relief appearances versus only six starts on the season, so kinda? Another was Brandon Sproat (3.2 IP | 4 ER) on April 4th in the second game of a double header after Logan Henderson (2 IP | 2 ER) started the game as an opener / 27th man call up. The other six - Megill (x2), Zerpa (x2), Anderson, and Uribe - were more traditional reliever blows the game type scenarios.

Will be an interesting follow for sure. Could see the case for trying to slip him through since he is still so far away, but could also see a pitching starved team plucking him and trying to slip him through the season as the last man in the bullpen. Could also be a candidate for Organizational Pitcher of the Year with the season he is having... 115 IP of 4.15 ERA | 4.49 FIP (78 ERA- | 85 FIP-) 126 K (3rd in MWL) | 51 BB (10.2 BB%) or maybe Jaron DeBerry... 119 IP of 4.31 ERA | 5.01 FIP (87 ERA- | 99 FIP-) 132 K (most in SL) | 60 BB (11.7 BB%) dark horse Braylon Owens... 93 IP of 4.04 ERA | 3.81 FIP (78 ERA- | 73 FIP-) 29.9 K% (best in system min. 60 IP) | 43 BB (10.9 BB%)