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8/02/2005 - Brewers (Ohka) @ Mets (Zambrano)

mikevan1818

By mikevan1818,
in Archived Game Threads

mikevan1818 Draft Eligible

mikevan1818

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My first game thread. Hopefully that brings some luck.

 

Game time: 6:10 pm CDT

 

TV: FSN

Radio: Brewers Radio Network

 

Brewers coming in with a 2 game winning streak while the Mets won their last.

 

Ohka: 6-6 3.87

Zambrano: 5-9 3.78

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rluzinski Wilson Warbirds

rluzinski

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Doesn't look good on paper:
 ____________________ Rluz's Predictions Brewers @ Mets ____________________ Brewers Sweep 9% Brewers Win 2 33% Brewers Win 1 41% Brewers Swept 17% ____________________

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Roscoe Chill

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I'm thinking that Santos is going to pull off one of those games where you can't fault him for anything tomorrow, but come up short. Actually I think it would be better for him to bomb and have the team move in another direction.
mikevan1818 Draft Eligible

mikevan1818

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rluniski...i think ive asked before, but i dont think i read an answer ever....how or where do you get those percentages every series? I think it's real interesting.
bjamesw22 Draft Eligible

bjamesw22

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I think those numbers could even be more devestating when looking at the pitching matchups. I believe Russ has said that his numbers do not take individual pitching matchups into consideration. Is that correct Russ?
rluzinski Wilson Warbirds

rluzinski

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I think those numbers could even be more devestating when looking at the pitching matchups. I believe Russ has said that his numbers do not take individual pitching matchups into consideration. Is that correct Russ?

 

That's correct. I just use the team's pythagorean winning %, and use the log5 equation developed by Bill James to calculate the odds of winning a single game. I add a home team advantage and figure out the probabilities of the different outcomes (sweep, swept, etc...). It's really just to give you an indication of how easy or hard a particular matchup is; i certainly wouldn't place money on those numbers (OK, I'm going to Vegas this weekend and WILL put money on them, but you shouldn't), but they are useful nonetheless.

 

To take the pitching matchups into consideration, just compare the difference between the ERA's of the 3 pitchers starting and the 2 not starting for each team. Then ask yourself, "are the 3 pitchers starting representative of the starting pitching as a whole"? (the bullpen is obviously the same) Since the Brewers have their 2 worst pitchers going and the Mets have arguably their 2 best, my odds are sadly overly optimistic.

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UeckerAddict

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There is some hope today...

 

The Venezuelan righthander [Zambrano] has dropped three straight home starts to fall to 2-6 with a 4.55 ERA at Shea Stadium this year.

MadisonBrewerBlue First Round Pick

MadisonBrewerBlue

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Quote:
the log5 equation

 

Isn't that a log rolling term ???http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

Interestingly Ohka has a 9-4 lifetime record in the month of August. Hope he gets some run support tonight and the win. The Mets have owned Ohka in his career winning 7 and losing 2.

Ralph Wiggum College Ball

Ralph Wiggum

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I can't believe this thread is 11 posts long, and nobody has characterized this game as a "Must Win" yet, or the series as a "Must Sweep"? Is somebody sleeping or what?
brettac1 ACL Brewers

brettac1

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Ohka seems to pitch well in the more spacious parks, like he did in Florida and with the Nats. Obviously he's a HR pitcher, and having him pitching at Shea is a lot better than at Miller Park. I think if the Brewers bring the discipline and patience they had against the Giants they can run Zambrano by the 5th, which would set the rest of the series up pretty decently since Pedro doesn't go extremely deep into games. By the time 11:10 rolls around on Thursday they could have the Mets pen pretty tired.

 

Best case scenario, obviously.

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bsglorydays

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How long will it take Daron to mention Mr Met.

 

Opening comments prior to the first pitch would be my guess. By the 5th inning, Mr. Met will be making an appearance in the booth. Schroeder will look uncomfortable. Daron will be a kid in a candy store.

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