70% chance of foul ball on full count?

[Hate those Rodents]

I heard that on a full count, the next pitch is a foul ball 70% of the time. That seems high. Is this true? Thanks for your help! Edited September 18, 2007 by 1992casey

[pitchleague]

well, I don't know where to begin to look for data on something like that, but I would think that's fairly accurate, when you assume many hitters will be swinging at anything close on 3-2, regardless of type of pitch. Good question, though.

[dadofandrew]

It seems high, but is possible, I guess.

[rluzinski]

It was 30% in 2006:

 

http://www.actasports.com/sow.php?id=143

[Hate those Rodents]

Thanks guys. Remember though, I am talking only about the FIRST pitch of a 3-2 count. That is where it is supposedly 70%. It seems high, but it always seems to happen when I'm watching...

[rluzinski]

If that 30% average for 2006 is right, 70% on the first 3-2 pitch is impossible, isn't it? It just sounds wrong, anyway.