Brewers Prospects Luis Lara, Ryan Birchard Have Intriguing Week 2 in Arizona Fall League

Game Results
Monday, 10/14 | Glendale 5, Peoria 3
Tuesday, 10/15 | Glendale 19, Peoria 9
Wednesday, 10/16 | Peoria 7, Mesa 8
Thursday, 10/17 | Scottsdale 11, Peoria 6
Friday, 10/18 | Peoria 4, Salt River 14
Saturday, 10/19 | Mesa 4, Peoria 5

3B Brock Wilken
Week: 4 G, 19 PA, 1 H, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 6 K
Following last week’s slow start to the short season, Wilken continued to struggle, with a home run being his only hit for this week. On the bright side, he managed to walk four times to bring his on-base percentage to .263 for the week.

We've seen too much swing-and-miss (over 35% of his swings) but not much chase outside the zone, and he's deserved better outcomes than he's gotten when making contact. In a limited sample of Statcast-included games, he had one flyout this week that jumped off his bat at 102.6 miles per hour and a launch angle of 32 degrees. The power in the bat is clearly there, but scouts have known that for a while now. Can Wilken increase his average and on-base percentage enough to maximize the use of that power? We’ll find out over the next few weeks.

OF Luis Lara
Week: 5 G, 20 PA, 5 H, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, 3 K, 1 HBP
Lara saw more time playing this week, starting in all five games. He was also consistent, getting on base at least once in each game in which he appeared. He managed to hit his first home run of the Arizona Fall League to help lead the Javelinas to their only win against the Mesa Solar Sox on Saturday. In general, he did a better job of elevating the ball this week, after showing the ability to hit it hard but mostly on the ground in Week 1.

Of 13 batted balls tracked for public consumption, Lara has had three over 102 MPH and none under 83. That's a bit surprising and more than a bit encouraging, from a player who won't turn 20 until next month and whose size is one of the biggest reasons to doubt his long-term upside. Nor is he selling out for power; he's made contact on over 75% of his swings in this stint.

Interestingly, Lara has had no walks in his 32 plate appearances. It’s a small sample size, but it’s something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. He'll have to make good swing decisions to keep tapping into this kind of quality contact against more advanced pitchers next year.

INF Juan Baez
Week: 4 G, 15 PA, 5 H, 1 HR, 5 R, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 SB
Baez saw more playing time after his standout first week, and while he wasn’t as close to hitting for the cycle, he still hit well, notably scoring five runs. He also walked as much as he struck out, and currently has a .556 OBP over his first 27 plate appearances with the Javelinas. As young and raw as he is, the feel for contact is undeniable.

RHP Coleman Crow
Week: 1 G, 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Crow pitched two innings, starting Wednesday’s game against the Solar Sox. He didn’t run into a ton of trouble and the only runner that reached scoring position got there by walking and then advancing on a balk. Overall, he threw 34 pitches, 23 of which were strikes. The stuff is still not jumping out at you, though, and the looming Rule 5 decision on him looks tough right now.
 
RHP Ryan Birchard
Week: 1 G, 2 ⅓ IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 5 K
Birchard got the start in the final game of the week and was a little all-over-the-place. In the first inning, he conceded three walks, threw a wild pitch, and gave up a hit before finally getting the third out. He had a more straightforward second inning, giving up a double and a walk but managing to prevent any further scoring.

By the time he had given up his fifth in the third inning, he had already thrown 63 pitches, only 34 of which were strikes.

That said, we got Statcast data on this outing--and it's as exciting as his wildness is discouraging. His fastball sat 94, in the extremely low-adrenaline environment of the AFL, and its carry is Tobias Myers-like. He comes from an extreme, deceptive over-the-top slot, with depth on a curve, a lot of movement on a sweeper, and a power slider/cutter that fits in between the other three pitches. Everything is going to come down to whether this guy can throw strikes.

RHP Will Childers
Week: 2 G, 2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Childers was lights-out in two games, getting most of his work done in the final game against the Solar Sox. He earned the final out of Thursday’s 11-6 loss to the Scorpions with just one pitch but got a chance for more work on Saturday. He relieved Birchard after his shaky outing and was efficient, throwing 30 pitches and striking out three. He also had a few walks, but unlike Birchard, none of his baserunners led to anything meaningful for the Solar Sox. His fastball sat 95 and touched 97, and his slider plays off it nicely, so it all comes down to his execution and command.

LHP Mark Manfredi
Week: 2 G, 1 ⅓ IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Manfredi had a tough start to his week. He gave up five earned runs in one inning of work against the Desert Dogs and may have been responsible for putting the game out of reach for his team. He entered the game in the seventh inning, at which point the Javelinas were down by just two runs. After a two-run home run by Otto Kemp, Manfredi closed out the inning with a lineout. Unfortunately, things quickly fell apart in the eighth.

After back-to-back singles to lead things off, a three-run homer by Colson Montgomery put the Desert Dogs up 12-8. Manfredi then walked a batter and hit the next one, leading to his replacement without recording a single out in the eighth inning.

He finished the week strong, coming in to earn the final out of the team’s sole win with a strikeout on five pitches.

RHP Nick Merkel
Week: 1 G, 1 ⅓ IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Merkel entered Wednesday’s close loss to the Solar Sox to get the final out of the sixth inning and stretch his outing into the seventh. He was on the wrong end of two solo home runs and a double, resulting in him being officially charged with the loss. On the bright side, he seemed aggressive in the zone, throwing 19 strikes out of 27 total pitches, but it may have been the reason for all of the loud contact.

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