Brock Wilken and Luke Adams: Very Unique, Very Alike

If you follow the Brewers farm system in 2025, you’ve likely heard about Luke Adams and Brock Wilken. You may have seen Spencer's article last week about Adams's swing change. They have the two highest OPSes in the Southern League. They also happen to play across from each other in the Biloxi Shucker's infield, with Wilken manning third base and Adams at first—when they're not hurt, which, alas, each of them are right now. Adams has a shoulder contusion after a collision at the plate, while Wilken has a knee injury on which he and the team are seeking multiple opinions. Still, their seasons to date merit a longer look.

They were an easy choice of subject: two 6-foot-4 right-handed mashers, first and second in their league in OPS, homers, and walks. But they haven't just been superbly productive; they're oddly similar in style.

These two are birds of a feather. Here’s where Wilken and Adams currently sit in a collection of stats in all Southern League history, dating back to 2007 (min. 250 PA), which includes 1,497 individual player seasons:

• wRC+: top 0.7% of all hitters
• ISO: top 4.3% of all hitters
• BB%: top 3.1%
• Pull%: top 1.3% of all hitters

Just to make them even more alike, Wilken and Adams are also extremely reluctant to swing, with Wilken’s 34.5% swing rate and Adams’ 33.2% rate each among the lowest in Double A. These rates are roughly in line with Juan Soto's swing rate (34.2%), which is the lowest in the majors. The sluggers are also unique in that they have succeeded without hitting for average. Despite Wilken hitting .230 and Adams hitting .245, they rank 7th and 11th, respectively, in single-season wRC+ in the Southern League, dating back to 2007. 

Among the top 11 hitters by wRC+ in Southern League history, the Shuckers duo have the lowest batting averages by far, with Drew Lugbauer (who hit .279 in 2023) as the next-lowest. The remaining eight players, including names like Paul Goldschmidt (2011) and Kris Bryant (2014), all hit over .300.

This stat does not come without a caveat, however: Offense has been down in the last two years in the Southern League, meaning Wilken's .230 batting average is actually slightly above average this year.

Still, Wilken and Adams are arguably the greatest sub-.275 hitters in the last 20 years of Southern League baseball. And it goes beyond just Double-A ball. Since 2007, across all minor leagues, players have hit under .300 a whopping 18,457 times (min. 250 PA). Out of those 18,457 single seasons, Wilken and Adams both sit inside the top fifteen in wRC+.

For players hitting under .300, that’s good for the top .08% of minor-league history. And if you drop the maximum batting average to .260, they are the top two players in minor-league history by wRC+, out of 10,000+ individual player-seasons.

That was a whole lot of numbers, but what does this mean for their big-league aspirations? Well, there isn't an abundance of comps for players with this unique stat line. Most great hitters in the minors are also hitting for a high average, as many tear their way through the competition. Utilizing a few more broad parameters, I was able to find the following eventual big-league comps who, just like Wilken and Adams, had low averages (sub-.270), high walk rates (12%+), and high power (.450+ SLG) in High-A or Double-A in the last 15 years:

• Joey Gallo
• Bobby Dalbec
• Trent Grisham
• Miguel Sanó
• Will Benson
• Andy Pages
• Jack Suwinski
• JJ Bleday
• Chris Carter
• Abraham Toro
• Will Smith.

There are more big-leaguers who fit these parameters, but these players are a solid representation of those who had low-average but very successful minor-league seasons. 

One thing you will notice, if you know these players, is that Will Smith is by far the best major-leaguer among them. In fact, he's a considerably better major-league hitter than he was in the minors. The Dodgers catcher is a bona fide star, with a career 128 wRC+ and .264 batting average, despite a .243 minor-league batting average.

Mostly, though, this list of big leaguers is filled with “three-true-outcome” hitters, who walk, strike out, and hit home runs. With the exception of Smith and the young Pages, none have career batting averages over .230, and many have extreme strikeout rates. Perhaps most importantly, however, five of the 11 (Smith, Gallo, Carter, Pages, and Sanó) have career wRC+ figures of 108 or higher. 

Of course, there are many more minor-leaguers who hit sub-.270 with walks and power who never reached the majors, or had very short MLB careers. A lot of the names on that list were entirely unfamiliar to me. In the end, though, there is absolutely a precedent for players like Wilken and Adams to reach the show, and potentially experience long careers. Still, their success will almost certainly have to come in spite of their batting averages, rather than because of it.

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