Cameron Wagoner: From Wags to Riches?

Cameron Wagoner was an 11th-round selection by the Brewers in 2022, out of Eastern Michigan. He had not actually pitched for Eastern Michigan that season, due to academic ineligibility, but still caught the attention of area scout Ginger Poulson as a talented arm. He jumped into pro ball and quickly made a name for himself. For the rest of the season, he led all 2022 draftees in wins (3), innings (19 2/3), and K/BB ratio (24/2) while posting a 1.83 ERA between the complex and Low-A.

Wagoner moved to High-A for the 2023 season and had an up-and-down season. His ERA (5.67) paints an uglier picture than the 4.20 FIP. Still, he struggled to generate strikeouts (19.2%), and his velocity was mainly in the 92-94 MPH range, rather than touching 97 MPH as he had shown in his brief professional debut the year before.

Wagoner finished the season strong, including a tremendous August, even winning Midwest League pitcher of the month after going 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA in five games. However, he underwent Tommy John surgery after noticing problems in his elbow as he prepared for the 2024 season. As he was rehabbing from the surgery, fluid in his elbow required another six months of rehab, and then an elbow fracture set him back even further.

When Wagoner returned to the game mound on May 2, it had been 972 days since he had last taken the ball in an official game. The return was not initially met by much attention, but that changed when he touched 99 MPH in a dominant three-up, three-down inning that included three strikeouts.

That moment already made for a cool story, but Wagoner appears to be aiming for something more. Including that first outing, Wagoner is currently posting an ERA of 1.46 through 12 1/3 innings, with 19 strikeouts and only three walks. (He has hit five batters, as well.) His 40.2% whiff rate puts him in the 97th percentile for Double-A pitchers. The only two runs Wagoner has allowed have come via two solo home runs.

Not only has Wagoner performed well, but the velocity continues to sit at the same level as he showed in his first outing. In fact, he even touched 100 MPH in the outing in which he recorded the first save of his career.

While he has dropped down to 95 MPH on a couple of fastballs, the vast majority have been in the 97+ range. It's not just the fastball that deserves attention, though. His "cutter" (more of a short slider shape) has been elite, as well. Going into his most recent outing, he had generated whiffs on 64% of swings against that pitch. An overlay of the two pitches helps illustrate how well the two offerings can play off each other.

This isn't just a good pitch mix for a Double-A reliever. Wagoner is showing a level of stuff capable of playing in a big-league bullpen. Given that he is Rule 5-eligible this winter, the Brewers may consider moving him up to Nashville soon, and once you're in Triple-A, a big-league debut is only one call away. 

Can he limit the free passes enough to let his stuff play? Will the velocity hold up as he continues to throw more innings? These are questions Wagoner will need to answer if he is going to push himself to that highest level. For now, though, his return is a tremendous story, and every inning he pitches in Double-A is must-see (MiLB) TV.

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