3 Keys for Milwaukee Brewers to Take Down San Francisco Giants

The Brewers trade in one Californian opponent for another, this time leaving their home turf to trek westward to face the San Francisco Giants. As the season shakes out, the Giants and Brewers are refracting a similar energy: each is the perennial David to an intradivisional Goliath, although the Crew have been more accurate with their slingshot over the last several years.

As the Dodgers have gathered up superstars, the Giants have had to be clever in their efforts to put together a meaningfully competitive lineup, but that pursuit has not been without some major hiccups. There were notable pursuits of Bryce Harper, who ended up signing a record-breaking contract with the Phillies; Shohei Ohtani, who took his talents to Dodger Stadium, instead; and Aaron Judge, who played the centerpiece in a now-infamous (though hilarious, misspelled and misinformed) tweet by Jon Heyman. There have been some successful additions, though, and Brewers fans need no introduction to their marquee addition from this season’s free-agent class. After several productive years in a Brewers uniform, Willy Adames cashed in on his stellar production at shortstop with a seven-year, $182-million pact with San Francisco.

It has been slow going for Adames to this point, sitting just below the Mendoza line with a .190 average and only one homer. The peripherals surrounding his lack of production leave room for real concern—most notably, a significant drop in bat speed, which informs everything else about his at-bats. Still, the Giants' lineup is not without threats. Brewers arms will have to navigate and leapfrog batters, the combined efforts of which put up a deceptive .698 OPS that undersells their ability to outscore their opponents. That said, the Giants couldn’t outscore the Angels in two of the three games in their last series.

Meanwhile, the visiting Brewers are fresh off a decisive series victory against an untethered Athletics team. The Crew won the first game but lost the middle game, before running up the score in a rubber-match victory, to the tune of 14-1. This shellacking pushed Pat Murphy's club two games above .500 to start their road trip. If momentum means anything, then this will be welcome fuel for a Milwaukee team still largely diminished by injuries.

Adding further fuel to their fire was the exciting call-up of Caleb Durbin. At 5-foot-6, Durbin already defies a lot of what one might expect in a typical big-league player, but the small-statured infielder comes equipped with a fascinating offensive profile. Known particularly for his plate discipline and high-contact approach at the plate, Durbin has unlocked some pop over the last year and a half, hitting 10 home runs last season and two already this year. 

Three Keys To Take Down The Giants

1. Don’t underestimate the middle of the lineup: The Giants have never been a team associated with pop. In fact, they hold the dubious and borderline unbelievable distinction of not having had a player hit 30 or more home runs in a season since 2004, when Barry Bonds mashed 45. Aside from Jung Hoo Lee (who possesses an eye-popping .355/.412/1.044 line) and some decent offensive output by Mike Yastrzemski, there isn’t a lot on the box scores that screams “imminent threat” at the plate. Much of the Giants lineup is composed of players with a history of streakiness, but right now, those players are performing with enough efficacy to support a +31 run differential - good for third in the league. 

2. Lean on the sidearmer: Pitching woes are still a bit of an issue for this team. One narrative that has slipped a bit under the radar is the one surrounding 27-year-old righty Grant Anderson. The sidearmer was designated for assignment by Texas last year after home run issues became an insurmountable problem for him; he gave up 2.3 homers per nine innings. Milwaukee’s front office saw paths to fixing that, however, and so far, it's working. Anderson is near the top of the league in stifling hard-hit balls, with only 2.8% of batted balls being Barrels—a massive drop from the 10% that did so last year. A major caveat, of course, is that the season is still brand-new. We haven't seen enough to know whether he can sustain this.

3. A bit of discipline from Chourio: It’s a bit difficult to know what to make of Jackson Chourio’s sophomore campaign. His offensive output looks great, with the numbers to prove it. The young phenom currently leads the Brewers with five home runs. That said, the gap between his batting average and his OBP is razor-thin, at an almost comical .253 to .266. This is largely due to an untenable 41.5% chase rate, second-worst in the league behind Michael Harris II. This is not untrodden territory for Chourio, who had a slow start to last year’s season before turning it on and making a run for Rookie of the Year. If he can tighten up his game, his contribution can go from marginal to astronomical.

Predictions: It’s really hard to doubt what the Giants have done. If it wasn’t for the behemoth that is the Dodgers, it’d be easy to see them competing for the top spot in their division. They just don’t have many holes, and the ones they do have feel manageable—but I don't think it will be a losing effort. The Crew takes two of four.