A Check-In on the Struggling Sal Frelick

When Sal Frelick homered in his first plate appearance against a left-handed pitcher in the season-opening series against the White Sox, it was easy to dream a bit on another terrific season for the fourth-year right fielder. He had suddenly found his way from virtually no over-the-fence power in 2024 to hitting 12 bombs in 2025, and that was without putting a southpaw in his book at all. A version of Frelick who could maintain what he did so well throughout last year and tap into more thunder against lefties could have become a borderline All-Star—something like the best, long-forgotten version of Andrew Benintendi. 

So far, though, that dream hasn't been realized. Five weeks in, Frelick is batting .212/.317/.306, and the seeming magic of his game from the best stretches of the last two years—lots of infield hits, unexpected gap-splitters in the biggest possible moments, efficient basestealing—is missing. On one hand, that's very worrisome, because there was some reason to wonder whether that was inevitable. Frelick far outperformed his expected stats last year. The regression monster stood nearby all winter, sharpening its fangs conspicuously. Our Jack Stern wrote about the fear of its bite earlier this spring. Frelick's expected numbers this year are better than the actual results, but not by that much. Certainly, he's not doing what you'd hope to see him do, if you were making a case for some positive regression ahead and a major improvement.

On the other hand, Frelick has made some improvements. He's swinging less this year, as a rational response to a shrinking strike zone, and as a result, his walk rate has spiked noticeably. Last year, he walked in 7.9% of his plate appearances. This season, that number is up to 12.5%, which is why he's staying afloat in the OBP department, despite his poor overall production. The power hasn't come. Even the batting average is lagging. He's getting on base at a viable rate, though, and his overall expected output is not much worse (.294 xwOBA) than it was last season (.299). If you believe he does have some real skill for outperforming his xwOBA, which seems fair, it's modestly encouraging that he's maintaining a similar overall process and walking more often. The chances of him getting back to an OBP around .350 seem relatively strong.

So, which way should you lean? With reasonable arguments on both sides of the scale, which weighs more heavily? To answer that (although maybe not the way you expect), let's talk about his bat-tracking data, Frelick already had a low average bat speed, according to Statcast, but that number has come down even further this year. It's come down partly because of and in proportion to making contact slightly deeper in the hitting zone and with a slightly lower attack angle. However, it's also come down despite a second straight season of flattening his bat path.

A flatter swing leaves less margin for error in terms of both timing and barrel accuracy. Frelick got significant mileage out of flicking line drives to center and left field, over the last two years, and the tilt in his swing helped him find the power for which he hit in 2025. This year, he's hitting more balls on the ground and more straight up in the air, with fewer in the sweet spot in between. That's a common symptom for those who afflict themselves with a flat swing. 

To visualize the problem, consider this homer from last season:

And compare it to this low lineout, on a similar pitch, this season.

On these two pitches, you can barely see a difference in swing plane in real time. If you freeze on the moment just before contact, though, the slight change gets easier to see. I've set those moments side-by-side below, and highlighted the bat to enhance its visibility.

This also makes it easier to see why this matters. A bit less loft in the swing—a slightly flatter slash through the zone—is the difference between hitting the bottom half of the ball and hitting the top half of it. On both pitches, Frelick is a bit early, having timed his swing at first for a fastball and gotten a changeup, but last year, he was early in a good way. This year, that same imperfection of timing has resulted in less valuable contact.

All this, though, can be fixed. The change in plane is relatively small; it comes from timing and swing decisions as much as it does from mechanics. The lost bat speed is half-illusory, and relatively minimal. Frelick just isn't on time very often, so far. He was late on the fastball and early on soft stuff for a solid fortnight, That brought his numbers to a nadir about 10 days ago, when his OPS for the year was under .550. Since then, he's batting .333 with one of his two homers, four walks and just one strikeout. Frelick might already be fixed, and if that's not fully true, he certainly looks to have gotten back on time. The rest will take care of itself over time. The Brewers have had to survive a lot of early injuries, and having Frelick struggle in the absence of Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn has been especially damaging. Just as the return of those two players draws near, though, it seems like Frelick is warming up. As ugly as the numbers are, the upside is as high as ever. If nothing else, the small strike zone should keep him trending in the right direction.