A William Contreras Contract Extension Should Be Brewers' Top Offseason Priority

The Brewers' most likely future Hall of Famer is Jackson Chourio. Their most valuable player in 2026 was the dominant Jacob Misiorowski. They have the top prospect in baseball, in Jesús Made, who looks likely to join a stout positional corps some time next summer. The heartbeat of the team, though—the one player who would be hardest to replace, not only this offseason but in recent memory—is catcher William Contreras.

The World Series MVP was so important to the team's success in all facets, and has been such a warrior for his squad since arriving in a trade over the offseason between 2022 and 2023, that even if the team had an elite catching prospect on hand, they'd have to take extra care before moving Contreras. Since Jeferson Quero is no longer that caliber of youngster, it's essential that the team explore retaining Contreras for the long term.

As the offseason begins, Contreras has just one season of team control remaining, whether the team elects to exercise its option on him for 2027 or to go through arbitration with him a final time. Next year will be his age-29 season; he's due to hit free agency ahead of his age-30 campaign. That puts Contreras in much the same position Phillies All-Star J.T. Realmuto was in after the 2020 season, when he hit free agency at the same age. Though it took a long staredown (one lengthened, perhaps, by the financial uncertainty many teams faced due to the COVID-shortened season and the associated loss of revenue), Realmuto and Philadelphia reunited on a five-year deal worth $115.5 million in guaranteed money. The deal was backloaded, so its actual value was slightly lower than the face value, but in essence, it paid Realmuto $23 million a year on a long-term contract, placing him at the top of the market for catchers.

That $23 million figure, in fact, is a bit of a magic number for catchers. When Joe Mauer was far and away the top backstop in the game and on the verge of free agency, over 15 years ago, he signed an eight-year, $184-million deal, which comes out to $23 million per year. In the back half of the extension Cal Raleigh signed with the Mariners last March, he'll earn $23 million per year, though that's obviously slightly below the market rate; it's part of a deal in which Raleigh surrendered some of his earning power in exchange for certainty. 

As the Brewers and Contreras ponder what's next, it's pretty easy to sketch out the terms of an extension the catcher would find reasonable. He wears No. 24—a uniform number that might someday be retired in his honor by the team, if he sticks around. The annual average value of a fair deal for Contreras is the easy part to figure: $24 million. That would make him the highest-paid catcher of all time, among those signing long-term deals.

There are two tougher questions to answer. The first, more obvious one is how long the deal would have to be. There's no way Contreras would accept a term of fewer than five years, which would make the base value of the deal $120 million. It's possible that he would demand six years, pushing the total starting point to $144 million and making his deal more clearly lucrative than Realmuto's. That would also surpass the total value of Will Smith's deal with the Dodgers, which pays him $140 million (though it's over 10 years). Biting the bullet and paying a catcher that well through age 35 might give the Brewers front office pause, given not only their perennial budget constraints but the dismal aging curve at that position for most players.

The other question is how to balance and tack on other considerations. While the Brewers are unlikely to give Contreras an eight-figure raise in 2027 when they don't have to, starting the deal a year early and replacing the team's final year of arbitration control would make a six-year term much more palatable. Alternatively, the team could try to entice Contreras to sign for five years and $120 million beginning in 2028 by adding a healthy signing bonus payable in 2027 and incentives or a vesting option for 2033. That could raise the star backstop's earning power to $150 million or more, without putting the Brewers at much more risk of having a bad contract on their hands. If Contreras wants an even bigger face value (say, $150 million over six years, for a $25-million average salary), the team is in position to afford that, but they'd need to figure out how to best do it—probably via deferrals that pay him a significant portion of his earnings after the contract is over. 

It's been six and a half years since the Brewers signed Christian Yelich to a long-term deal, which has become a bit expensive and unwieldy as Yelich has aged. However, Yelich has also had some great years on that contract, and on balance, his leadership and value as a face of the franchise more than make up for whatever production shortfalls have come from his injury problems and aging. The team is due to sign another Yelich-like deal, and the windfall they'll realize after winning the World Series makes that very feasible.

Contreras is the right player with whom to take that kind of risk. Brice Turang is an almost equally compelling one, but Contreras is the much harder player and person to replace. He'll also cost less than Turang would on a long-term deal. Rather than considering (even for a moment) trading their lion, the Brewers should put themselves in the William Contreras business for years to come. The rest of the offseason decisions will (practically) take care of themselves.

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