An Underperforming Rhys Hoskins All But Ensures He’ll Be A Milwaukee Brewer in 2025

Assuming he’s healthy, Rhys Hoskins was a 30+ home run guy who walked at a 10-15% clip. Was he a mediocre defender? Sure. Did he have a great hit tool? No. But a .240-.250 batting average was not out of the question. Add in the power and on-base skills, and you will have some nice value.

But there were two red flags: Hoskins was 31 years old coming into the 2024 season. Big, one-dimensional sluggers (Hoskins is 6’4” and 245 pounds) often don’t age well. And two, Hoskins had missed all of 2023 due to a torn ACL. Doctors had proclaimed Hoskins fit for duty - but any major knee injury is worrisome.

The results for 2024 have been underwhelming. As of September 10, Hoskins is hitting a weak .208. His walk rate is the lowest of his career - giving him a sub-.300 OBP. His strikeout rate is the worst of his career, his fielding is not good, and he’s one of the league's slowest players. It has led to a bWAR of -0.6 - or a -0.3 if you prefer fWAR. 

On the positive side of the ledger, Hoskins has hit 23 home runs in just 115 games. Unfortunately, that’s the only thing he’s done to justify his contract.

And speaking of his contract, the Brewers swung for the fences when signing Hoskins earlier this year. They could have brought back Carlos Santana for less than half the price - but such a move lacked upside. Hoskins - it was hoped - offered a more steady and reliable bat. But it came at a price.

Let’s look at the details.

• 2024 salary: $12 million

• Hoskins can opt out of the deal in the off-season and receive a $4 million buyout. 

• If Hoskins skips the buyout, he gets an $18 million salary for 2025.

• If Hoskin opts in with Milwaukee for 2025, there is a mutual option for 2026 for a $16 million salary, which, if not picked up, triggers a $4 million buyout. 

What does this exactly mean for Hoskins and Milwaukee?

He can walk away after this season and pocket $16 million for 2024. Or he can stay with the club in 2025 and end up with $34 million in compensation ($12 million for 2024, $18 million for 2025, and $4 million for the mutual option buyout). 

Mutual options rarely get exercised, but Hoskins would end up with $48 million over three years if triggered. But as stated, mutual options rarely get exercised, so let’s assume it does not.

Does Hoskin exercise his opt-out after this season? In an article looking at the 2025 makeup, I considered this possibility last month and stated that Hoskins's opt-out of his contract was unlikely. 

Well, that assessment hasn’t changed. It would be a stunning move for Hoskins to opt out of his deal this offseason. If he does so, he’s giving up $18 million in 2025. He’ll never make that kind of money on the open market. All the signs are trending downward for the man. He would be lucky to find a deal of more than $10 million in free agency. Someone would be intrigued by his power, but not to the tune of $18 million. 

For that reason, Rhys Hoskins will be back in Milwaukee in 2025. To opt out of his contract would be a monumental surprise and cost the slugger millions of dollars. 

And so, the Crew (and Milwaukee fans) should prepare for at least one more year of Hoskins. This will cause many fans to groan, as they have been highly critical of the well-paid slugger for obvious reasons. 

Should we be dismayed by the return of Hoskins? Well, dismayed might be too strong of a word. Disappointed resignation might be a better term. Undoubtedly, many would like to see him gone and his $18 million salary allocated to other needs. But there’s still hope for the man. Perhaps a year removed from his ACL will help Hoskins, who still can hit the long ball. He is not that old. Plenty of 32-year olds, such as Hoskins, have good years at the plate. And he will be highly motivated to have a big season - as he’ll likely hit free agency after the 2025 season. Money can cause people to achieve amazing things. 

No matter the answer, expect Rhys Hoskins to return to the Brewers in 2025.