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  • Brewers 2, Astros 12: Things Get Ugly At Home

    Jason Wang

    Viewer discretion is advised, and not for the fun reasons.


    Brewers Video

    Box Score

    Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes - 5.0 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 91 pitches, 54 strikes (59.3%)
    Home Runs: Rowdy Tellez
    Top 3 WPA: Rowdy Tellez (.151), Mike Brosseau (.000), Darin Ruf (.000) 
    Bottom 3 WPA: Corbin Burnes (-.265), Brian Anderson (-.075), Brice Turang (-.059) 

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)


    Burnes Gives Up Four Homers
    In one of his worst starts of the season, Corbin Burnes left a few too many pitches over the plate, giving up home runs to Corey Julks, Martin Maldonado, Mauricio Dubon, and Yordan Alvarez. By the conclusion of the fifth and final inning of his start, the Astros had a 5-1 lead and an 88.3% chance of winning.

    If you take a look at the pitch data, it’s clear that pitches were simply hanging. The first home run, by Julks in the second inning, was on a hanging sinker with just nine inches of horizontal break. Similarly, the home runs Burnes served up to Maldonado and Alvarez were on cutters with zero inches of horizontal break. 

    After Monday’s start, Burnes went from a 3.48 ERA to a 3.97 ERA.

    Peguero Gives Up Four Earned Runs 
    The bullpen's difficulty in withstanding some recent injuries has been a major contributor to the team's recent slump, and Elvis Peguero illustrated that. He came into the game with a stellar 1.42 ERA over 12 2/3 innings pitched. He left the game with 13 innings pitched and a 4.15 ERA. What happened?

    1. CJulks grounded out.
    2. Jake Meyers was hit by a pitch.
    3. Maldonado singled, advancing Meyers to second.
    4. Dubon walked, loading the bases.
    5. Alex Bregman hit a single, scoring Meyers and keeping the bases loaded.
    6. Peguero was replaced by Hoby Milner.
    7. Yordan Alvarez hit a grand slam.

    Peguero gave up four earned runs, and recorded just one out. The Alvarez grand slam was effectively the nail in the coffin, reducing the Brewers’ win probability to just 0.4%.

    At Least It Was A Group Effort?
    Just as they win as a team, they lose as a team. Of the 17 players in today’s game, 12 had a negative Win Probability Added for this game. Four of them had a WPA of .000, because the game was effectively over after the sixth inning, and then there was Rowdy Tellez, who hit a home run in the second inning.

    The other run was from a Tyrone Taylor double in the seventh inning that scored Brice Turang, bringing the score to 10-2. The Astros would go on to score two more runs in the eighth inning.

    What’s Next? 
    Let’s just put this all behind us and hope that with a new day comes a new beginning. Colin Rea will face major-league newbie J.P. France in the second game of the series at home. 

    In further depressing news, the Pirates won their game, so they and the Crew are now tied for the lead in the NL Central.

    Postgame Interviews

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    Cousins 0 0 36 0 21 57
    Strzelecki 0 18 0 24 0 42
    B Wilson 0 0 39 0 0 39
    Megill 0 0 14 0 23 37
    Payamps 0 14 0 17 0 31
    Williams 0 0 0 20 0 20
    Peguero 0 0 0 0 18 18
    Milner 0 0 0 0 9 9
    Varland 0 0 0 0 0 0

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    Jake McKibbin
  • Brewer Fanatic Contributor
  • Posted

    That Burnes interview is kind of worrying if he thinks he's thrown the ball well so far this year and getting what he wants... the peripherals aren't great and the serious drop in swing and miss must be concerning

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    At this point, you should start including Brosseau in the bullpen usage spreadsheet given he's played in 2 games in the past week.

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    Since the All-Star break last season, Corbin Burnes has made 25 starts. He has 145 IP with a 96 ERA- and 96 FIP-. He’s basically been a slightly above league average pitcher for almost an entire season’s worth of starts at this point. 

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