With The Miami Marlins Tearing It Down, Could the Brewers Be Tempted By A Young Starlet?

The Marlins traded away effectively one year of Luis Arraez, the 2023 batting title champion with elite bat-to-ball skills and subpar defensive chops away for a haul from the Padres. As always with trades involving prospects, the final evaluation of the trade will come down the line; however, the Padres gave up their sixth, ninth, and thirteenth best prospects per MLB.com as well as a reliever.

Dillon Head was the 25th pick in the 2023 draft, a prep outfielder with 70-grade speed and the kind of athleticism that’s very projectable. Jacob Marsee is another strong defensive outfielder with 98 walks to 97 strikeouts last season, while Nathan Martorella shows similar plate discipline and more pop with less of a defensive home. Handing over all three for a one-year rental of a player with minimal versatility and just one strong tool is likely an overpay from the Padres.  This likely means the Brewers won’t be getting anything on the cheap, needing to pay full value in any potential trade. 

Edward Cabrera
The jewel on the Marlins roster, his 6.05 ERA belies the amount of potential Cabrera has. His statcast is filled with red because of an inordinate amount of swing and miss generated on each of his changeup curveballs and soldier, which all have 30%+ whiff rates. The changeup is his main pitch to both left and right-handers, with an average exit velocity of just 78.4 mph. The one thing holding him back is command issues, which he promised improvements on during spring training but may have been set back due to an early season injury. He also has an elite ground ball rate when he puts the ball in play, over 55% both in 2023 and 2024, which will play up to the Brewers' infield defense.

Over his career, Cabrera holds a 4.19 ERA, which is hardly spectacular and belies what sort of ceiling he could have. The question will be whether or not the Marlins believe they can improve his command because, so far, that doesn’t seem to be the case. The Brewers, on the other hand, have shown a real knack for getting the best out of pitchers with command issues, Freddy Peralta being a prime example, and it may attract them to such a young, talented, and most of all a controllable arm.

Cabrera’s trade value will be immense, not just because of his high ceiling should a team unlock him but because he won't be a free agent until 2029. He’s young, cheap, and has bags of talent, so any trade will not come on the cheap. As a result, the Brewers are likely to steer clear of a deal for Cabrera, but their farm system is more than capable of compiling an enticing offer for the young stud. It will involve some upper-level and lower-level talent, perhaps something along the lines of this:

Potential Trade Package: Robert Gasser and 20-30 ranked prospect
Edward Cabrera could develop into a number two starter under the Brewers' tutelage, and with the year of control, it may cost them. A package of the steady Robert Gasser, who maybe can’t reach the heights of Cabrera at his best and is still unproven at the MLB level. He has an extra period of control and a reliable injury record. On top of that, a lower-ranked, high upside hitting prospect could make the Marlins sit up and take notice. 

The Brewers are more in need of upside in their rotation than at the back end, but it could be tough for them to part with Gasser, who shone last season and is ready for a big-league rotation. Durable in ways Cabrera maybe isn't, while adding in a prospect like O'Rae or Di Turi. All in all, I believe that to be a relatively fair trade on all fronts.

If The Brewers Don’t, Who Will?
The NL Central is filled with top farm systems that could be ready to take on a trade with the hapless Marlins, the Chicago Cubs in particular. The Cubs need a quality bullpen arm, and Tanner Scott may fill that for them with his 0.99 WHIP in 2023 and a lefty to complement Hector Neris at the back end of their pen. Adbert Alzolay has proven not to be as effective as Devin Williams, like, some fans thought, blowing six saves so far this year, and the acquisition of Scott could go a big way to helping them grind out tight games like they have in recent times. Their offense has been poor to start the year, and a shutdown pen will be needed to maintain their early record; they also have the assets to make such a trade with a consensus top-three system in baseball.

The Cincinnati Reds have also been showing a ton of promise, led by Elly De La Cruz. Behind him, however, there hasn’t been much to speak of, with Spencer Steer cooling off and Will Benson third amongst their qualified hitters with a .694 OPS. They may eye up reinforcements in the form of Bryan de la Cruz in the outfield, and with Jonathan India, they may be able to provide the perfect replacement for Arraez.

The Pirates seem less likely to make a move and hog their farm talent; however, given Aroldis Chapman's up-and-down performance this season, Tanner Scott may also help them.

The rest of the NL Central could smell blood, but of all avenues, the Cabrera trade may make the biggest impact on any team's 2024 playoff probabilities.

What do you think of the proposed trade? And can you see upgraded threats in the rest of the NL Central? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.