How the Milwaukee Brewers Can Reach 90-Plus Wins in 2024

Pat Murphy said this weekend that almost half of his initial roster will never have been on an Opening Day squad before, highlighting just how raw his team is. They have a lot of potential, and whether that’s unlocked will be key to their success this season.

Quality at the Front of the Rotation
Interestingly enough, the Brewers' rotation wasn’t particularly effective in the first half of the 2023 season--at least not the front end of Brandon Woodruff (injured), Corbin Burnes (3.94 ERA) and Freddy Peralta (4.70 ERA). By contrast, Colin Rea and Julio Teherán did an outstanding job early on. 

It could be argued, especially with Teherán, that the Brewers struck it lucky, and that that’s unlikely to happen this season. As such, the high-strikeout pitchers need to perform, and a lot of that onus will fall on Peralta. The new ace’s second-half stat line went like this: 

• 2.81 ERA
• 36.3 K%
• 2.54 xFIP
• 0.88 WHIP

In short, Fastball Freddy was dialed in, and the Brewers are going to need to see significantly more starts at this level now that Burnes and Woodruff are non-factors for 2024.

Then come the other two high-ceiling arms, both of whom can elicit tantalizing numbers of swings and misses. Aaron Ashby and DL Hall have some of the nastiest pitches in baseball, but it all hinges on their command. Hall, in particular, showed vast improvements in that regard with the Orioles at the tail end of 2023, while Ashby is still in question. For both, consistency from start to start may be a concern. The Brewers' rotation looks a hell of a lot sturdier if you can fit between them in behind Peralta and push Wade Miley, Colin Rea, et al. down in the pecking order.

It’s a lofty goal, but if Ashby and Hall can give the club 200 innings of around a 3.50 ERA, then this team takes on a whole new shape. Health permitting, I would expect both of them to grow as the season goes on, leaving the Brewers stronger at the back end of the campaign. The Brewers need some high-octane stuff for their number-two starter, and between Ashby and Hall, that void could be filled.

Robert Gasser’s Durability
“Bob Gas” is likely to be up early this season, as Pat Murphy indicated, and he could be key to how this Brewers season finishes. In a rotation plagued with injury and durability questions, Gasser has pitched in 53 games over the last two seasons. His walk rate has dropped noticeably and allowed him to work deeper into games, but he does have an issue that may arise in this sense.

Gasser has a tendency toward blow-up innings, which has curtailed him at times, and a lot of that comes down to his fastball varietals. Both the fastball and cutter can become very hittable when he drops them down in the zone, as you can see below:

The cutter is a better offering, but he can’t afford to let it come inside to right-handers or he’ll be toast. If he can avoid faltering too much and having those big innings and big pitch counts, there’s a chance Gasser may even lead the Brewers in innings pitched this season.

Position Player WAR
This Brewers offense has a greater array of weapons than at any point since 2019, with each of Gary Sánchez, Rhys Hoskins, Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, William Contreras and even Jackson Chourio possessing impact bats. Of these, Contreras, Adames, Yelich and Chourio have the potential to be four- or five-win players, due to their offensive and defensive contributions. 

Yelich’s biggest issue is, simply, health. Murphy talked about the effort he’s put into strengthening his back in the offseason (though no comment was made on his choice of popcorn), and the eye test would suggest a bulkier Yelich this season. During his stretch from May to July last year before the back flared up, the Brewers star hit .314/.395/.531 with 13 home runs and 17 stolen bases, form that continued upon his return in late September and the playoffs. It may be dreaming at this point, but it’s the most consistent thunder Yelich has produced since 2019.

Yelich can take a further step forward with how he handles breaking pitches. For someone with such a patient approach at the plate, the degree to which he chases non-competitive sliders and curveballs is astounding: 

Sliders are a real struggle for him, especially against lefthanders, but he has the eye to lay off them if he so chooses. The reason he swung so often is because of how much damage he did down and inside last season; finding that balance will be key to his 2024 performance.

William Contreras has gone from strength to strength with the Brewers defensively, transforming into an elite defensive catcher over just a single offseason. His results with the bat were promising too, largely thanks to how he destroyed sliders inside the strike zone. His power came from sliders and fastballs on the inner half, but he did struggle to elevate the ball consistently against anything else, which meant he didn’t quite access his power as often as he would like.

Contreras' challenge this season will be twofold: he’s spoken of his desire to improve defensively, and that will center around framing at the top of the strike zone, and his pop times. Offensively, his bat is a huge weapon and there’s real room for growth if he can zone in on curveballs and other offspeed pitches with more regularity.

Willy Adames is another one to keep an eye on. Producing 4.6 fWAR in 2022, his defense is truly elite at shortstop. He’s almost guaranteed as a three-win player, but the charge in his bat will be what takes him to that higher tier. Adames is primarily a fastball hitter, performing well against four-seamers last season and crushing them when they weren’t elevated. He struggled mightily against breaking pitches, though, especially sliders. Whereas in 2022 he slugged .550 against them, in 2023 that dropped to .379 and was a large reason for his poorer overall performance. He has always swung and missed a lot at the pitch, but previously when they were hung up in the zone, they got mashed. Combine this with his improved walk rate last season, and it’s definitely possible for Adames to sneak into that five-WAR club this season.

I’m slightly loath to include Jackson Chourio here, due to his rawness, and it’s not particularly likely this season, with things still to work on at the major-league level. That being said, despite some hiccups in the corner outfield spots in spring training, his range and arm provide a high floor from which to provide value, and his bat speed is truly electric. The final thing for him swing-wise is to avoid chasing pitches, which caused him to roll over weakly in 2023 more often than will be viable in MLB, but his raw speed still allows him to beat out the infield hit from time to time. He has massive potential, and the Brewers signed him to that $82-million contract because they and everyone else know just how valuable Chourio can be.

How Much Needs to Click?
This is the million-dollar question. All of the above won’t go right for the Brewers, but they are examples of what can go right this year. Realistically, the biggest need is in the rotation, and if the Ashby/Hall combo can hit the benchmark above, then this Brewers team takes a massive leap forward.

Offensively, they have taken big strides to improve the middle of their batting order and should produce considerably more runs this season as a result. To be a top-eight offense in baseball, they’ll need one of Chourio, Adames, Yelich, and Contreras to take that step forward with the bat, while a step forward for two of them could see the Brewers become a top-five offense. Pair that with an above-average rotation, and you’ll have your 90 wins come October.