Can Jacob Misiorowski Be Trusted to Start Games in October?

Jacob Misiorowski hasn't hit the ground running after his shin contusion. He's struggled with command against both Cincinnati and Chicago, and has made a consistent theme of letting innings spiral out of control. Those crooked numbers (born of poor situation management) are the last thing you would want in playoff baseball, where every inning and every out is potentially pivotal, but it's also fair to say that the young hurler has had his fair share of misfortune. Let's see if we can find a way to break down his struggles.

First, let's take a look at Baseball Savant's expected metrics. After his Phillies start, Misiorowski has a 4.50 ERA in 48 innings. Nothing flashy there. However, his underlying numbers suggest he's been better than that. He has a .183 expected batting average and .313 expected slugging against him. His expected ERA is 2.76. These are all marks in the upper echelons of baseball.

That's not really surprising. His arsenal is almost unhittable. Even as we look at a times-through-the-order penalty, it seems as though he's performing well multiple times through. He's getting hit harder and higher, but he's still a strikeout machine after the lineup card turns over:

Misiorowski has had a habit of exploding out of the gate, only to find a blow-up frame in the middle innings somewhere. Looking at the above, we can discern that he is getting hit slightly harder the second time through a lineup, albeit still at around an average clip overall. He's giving up more fly balls, too, but the big difference I find here is the left-on-base rate. When runners get on base, they score almost two-thirds of the time. For comparison's sake, the average left-on-base rate is 72.3% this season. When facing someone who can strike out hitters like "the Miz", you could expect that number to be closer to 80% over the course of his career.

Yet, he's struggled to stop innings from snowballing. Part of this may be down to the pitcher, while another part is just bad luck.

His start against the Diamondbacks is a perfect example. He dominated for most of his appearance, striking out 10 hitters across five innings of work with three hits and one walk, but due to a misplay at first base and an untimely home run, he gave up three runs. The home run came at the perfect time for maximum damage; that's at least partially out of Misiorowski's control. He did leave a slider middle-in, but it was a 96-mph slider. Turning on that pitch is no mean feat. That being said:

A Sliding Tweak To His Arsenal
Of all Misiorowski's pitches, the one I perhaps like the least is his hard slider (read "cutter," if your name is Jack Stern). Its shape isn't great, and is more of a "get you off the four-seamer" offering than a strong pitch on its own. The reason he developed it, and still has it as his second-most used pitch, is because he's very comfortable pouring it in when he needs to find the strike zone. He needed this last season when he struggled to locate the fastball, but perhaps not quite so often now that his primary offering's command has improved:

Thomas Nestico's model highlights how Misiorowski has above-average zone rates for each of his main three pitches, but both of his secondaries have their problems. The slider is one he finds easy to locate, but he rarely gets swing-and-miss or chase with this offering, making it less useful when he gets ahead. 

Of the five home runs Misiorowski has given up this season, three have come on his slider. Part of the problem is his velocity differential from the fastball, which hitters are likely sitting on, but it helps them catch the slider slightly out in front and pull it in the air with relative consistency, doing some real damage if he leaves it over the middle of the plate.

It does perform well enough when he can locate it on the outer third to right-handed batters, but it too often drifts over the middle, and that's real danger for this pitch shape. If he was more comfortable nibbling with the slider, I think it may perform better (even despite his current walk issues) and really limit the damage that can come behind it.

In fact, given the counts Misiorowski uses his slider in, that's exactly what should be happening. He utilizes it predominantly to righties, and notice how the usage creeps up both in two-strike counts, and when he gets ahead:

With the profile he has for whiffs on the slider, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Conventional wisdom would say that his slider is a good pitch to initiate weak contact on, but not so much to finish off hitters. The curveball's usage is probably lower than it should be, and honestly, the changeup could also be a good chase pitch off his fastball. The slider, well, there isn't a ton of logic to its current usage, given how it actually plays against big-league hitters.

Pitch Profiler's model above suggests this would bring further benefits. The chart shows how well the pitch on the left hand side (y-axis) matches when thrown after the pitch on the bottom (x-axis). Notice how the slider sets up his fastball and changeup, better than vice-versa. The velocity can speed up, or slow down from there. Hitters aren't swinging much at Misiorowski's first pitch, waiting it out, knowing that they can force deep counts. If he gets ahead, the chances of a slider or curveball coming increase exponentially, and those two pitches are a little more gettable than his heater. If he falls behind, you can sell out early, knowing a fastball is coming your way.

Misiorowski needs to become a little less predictable. It'll help him be more efficient in deeper counts, especially as he's landing his three primary offerings for strikes. He may also gain some benefit from throwing the changeup more to right-handers, as a chase-centric offering. Predictability, even with otherworldly stuff, gives hitters a chance to put the ball in play. His feel for the curveball and its location will likely continue to improve the more he pitches, as with the changeup, but how he uses all three off the fastball will go a long way toward deciding his future success.

Has He Been Unlucky?
The short answer here is yes. His expected FIP, expected ERA, and the quality of contact against him all indicate that his 4.50 ERA at this point is not representative of how he's pitched. He's given up some unfortunately timed long balls, although part of that may come from him tightening up with men on base. He walks more hitters when he lets one man on the basepaths behind him, and that can cause some escalation in moving a runner to scoring position, or the one big hit costing an extra run. It all tallies up, and it's fair to say that, based on Misiorowski's trends in both the major and minor leagues, this is a pattern for him.

More exposure to these situations (and developing confidence in his ability to work through these problems) is the only solution. Whether his confidence goes, he loses focus on the "one-pitch-at-a-time" process, or he just gets tight, it's something that he'll learn how to work through in the moments that matter. Bringing this back to the original question of how much to trust Misiorowski in a playoff situation, that is a concern for now. If the pressure of a regular-season game can hit in this manner, then what will the bright lights in October manage?

So, October?
Misiorowski has the potential to be a game breaker. He can rip open lineups like almost no one else in baseball. He's been unfortunate of late, but if he can force the league to be more uncertain of what pitch comes next (as in his demolition of Kyle Schwarber below), he's still a unique weapon.

He needs to mature on the mound. He'll get there. For now, I would imagine Misiorowski could be unleashed as a starter in October, with a fit, rested Aaron Ashby ready to cover should he begin to find some trouble. Perhaps we'll even see an improved level of focus in the bigger games. Perhaps, though, the better place for him is in the bullpen. It's important to note that, especially since the All-Star break, his velocity declines quickly after his first inning of work. He's down a full mile per hour by his second frame within each game, and another half-tick down for each of the next two.

Maybe that means that adrenaline is helping him through first innings, but then ebbing as his outings continue. That screams out for reassignment to short relief. He does have a tendency to lose command in tight spots. That's not ideal for any pitcher, never mind in playoff baseball. He's also been dreadfully unlucky, though, and perhaps he's miscast in a starting role—at least at this moment in his development.

The reliability of Quinn Priester would probably be favored over the young phenom at this point, but the Brewers should still keep him in their plans for October, one way or another. If it clicks, he might just be the reason they win it all.