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  • Does Bringing Back Carlos Santana Make Sense for the Brewers?


    Matthew Trueblood

    Earlier this week, Sports Info Solutions released the runners-up for their prestigious Fielding Bible Awards at each position. Technically speaking, the Brewers had two players on that list. Should they bring both back in 2024?

    Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

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    It wasn't Carlos Santana's glove that made him most attractive to the Brewers at last year's trade deadline. The team needed an infusion of power that didn't come with a nullifying sub-.300 on-base percentage. That's a specialty for Santana, who has spent a decade and a half drifting around MLB, racking up walks and hitting for steady (if generally unspectacular) power. 

    A former catcher, he's also been very good with the leather since his long-ago transition to first base. He'll turn 38 years old next April, and other first basemen have better range, but Santana has terrific hands, good fundamentals, and a vestige of the arm that made him a viable catcher, on the rare occasions when that comes into play at the cold corner. 

    The Brewers saw all of this on display after they acquired Santana in July. He clubbed 11 home runs over the final two months of the season, and although they came at the cost of some of his usual patience, that was exactly what Milwaukee's lineup needed. His defense was a noticeable upgrade from the likes of Rowdy Tellez and Owen Miller. Perhaps most of all, though, he became immediately respected and beloved in the clubhouse. He's played for four different teams since the start of 2022, and the last two teams to sign him as a free agent were both non-contenders looking to sew up some production on the cheap. Yet, he's ended each of the last two campaigns as a leader in the clubhouse of a playoff team. 

    All of this invites us to ask: under what circumstances would it make sense for the Brewers to bring Santana back in 2024? Presumably, given his age and his non-elite (however venerable) status, he's only going to command a one-year deal. In 2023, he got $6.75 million from the Pirates on the free market. Good as he was, he's one year closer to the inevitable day when he'll be unable to catch up to the fastball anymore, or when good positioning and footwork won't allow him to get to ground balls at the edge of his range. He's unlikely to make substantially more than that 2023 salary in 2024.

    At roughly $7 million, he'd be a reasonably cheap solution at first base for the Brewers. They're not going to tender a contract to Tellez, who would be in line to make $5 million or so via arbitration and was nowhere near being worth that in 2023. Santana is a much more dependable, well-rounded alternative, for almost no more money. Alas, it's not just Tellez to whom we need to compare him. If Santana is merely a league-average hitter (as some metrics suggest), then he's a below-average one for his position. The Brewers need to bolster their offense, and have a fairly limited budget and just a few positions at which to do it. Spending $7 million without materially closing the gap between themselves and the superior offenses with whom they were competing at the top of the National League last year is a tough sell.

    To some extent, perhaps, the feasibility of bringing back Santana depends on how strongly you feel that Tyler Black and Jackson Chourio can be plus bats right away. While neither seems all that likely to break camp with the Crew, both Black and Chourio figure to be with the parent club by Flag Day or so. If they hit the way they've each demonstrated the ability to, they can do much of the heavy lifting in terms of making this a better offense. At that point, a veteran hitter and leader like Santana would be well worth a deal like the one we've discussed.

    Finally, let's turn our attention Willy Adames, the other Brewer who came in second for one of the (should-be) coveted Fielding Bible Awards. As the shortstop and the biggest star on the team's infield, Adames is almost a de facto captain of this squad. He's entering the final year of his arbitration eligibility (and thus, of the Brewers' control over him), and in line to claim an eight-figure salary through that process. As we knew there would be, there have been whispers and rumors and MLB Trade Rumors polls about whether the team should trade Adames this winter. In fact, in that poll of readers of MLBTR, 60.7 percent of respondents think the team should pull the trigger and move their star shortstop.

    It feels like most of those voters must be non-Brewers fans. Having seen Brice Turang fail to hit big-league pitching for a season, and without another obvious candidate in the organization to take the reins, extending Adames makes far more sense than trading him--not least because, after an uneven season, his trade value is slightly down. anyway. More likely than either trading or extending him, of course, is keeping him for one year and letting him leave via free agency next winter. For now, suffice it to say that keeping him for 2024 seems like a no-brainer.

    If that's true, it makes keeping Santana slightly more attractive. At third base (and perhaps at second, too), the Brewers will have to sacrifice some defense to improve their offense. To maintain the sterling glovework that was integral to the division title we just saw this team claim, it would make some good sense to keep two guys who can deliver average or better offense and are among the five best defenders in the game at their respective positions--particularly in light of the instant connection the two Dominicans seemed to enjoy. William Contreras was also an immediate disciple of Santana's. The vibes of a return engagement for El Oso would be tremendous.

    What do you think? At what price, and in combination with which other moves, would bringing back Santana make sense? The Brewers will need to make this decision fairly soon, so it's a good time to have a conversation about it.

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    damuelle
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  • Posted

    Re-sign Santana (fielding, OBP) and Donaldson (betting on HRs, also not a bad fielder). Let’s not make the mistake we made in late 2019 when we didn’t welcome Jesus Aguilar back with open arms.

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    Absolutely not Donaldson. He has almost become Adam Dunn, more XBH than singles and twice as many Ks and hits. He can still make some plays in the field, I agree, but it is not worth a season of his poor hitting. Power is nice but he does not really bring the power. He had about 70 PA and hit 3 HR, at that rate he would need over 450 PA to get to 20HR next season. The Crew only had one 20HR guy so that might seem attractive, but that is not enough overall production to justify signing Donaldson (who made over $20 million last year). Remember at a key moment in the first playoff game, a tie score, with one out and runners at second and third, Donaldson needed to put the ball in play. Any base hit or sac fly gives the Brewers the lead and he popped out weakly. He came up three times with men on in that game and ended up with 0 RBI. The 2015 Dondalson has left the building.

    Of all the things the Brewers did well last year - pitching, defense, and picking up Santana, Canha, and Donaldson, and bringing back Miley - they were awful with projecting power bats. Tellez tried to play hurt for too long and his power suffered. The laundry list of DH/1Bs who were supposed to provide pop was historically bad; Winker, Ruf, Voit, Singleton, and Jones combined for 1HR this year. 

    This might have to be a semi-rebuild for the Brewers given the contract situations and injuries they face. Keeping a veteran like Santana who is a good clubhouse guy (much better reputation that Donaldson), who came in and helped several of the younger players develop patience at the plate (look at the number of pitches guys were seeing after Canha and Santana arrived, I believe they led the league), and as the original post mentioned, he will likely cost less than what the Crew paid Winker for this season.

    The pitching is a whole situation to itself but on the hitting side the Brewers have lots of options in the OF, I'd like to see Taylor in LF, Mitchell in CF, Frelick in RF with Yelich primarily at DH but able to play in the field at times when you want to play match ups. You can have Perkins as a back up at all three positions and you can mix those guys a lot of ways. This gives you very good defense, excellent speed, and room for growth with the bats. With Wiemer and Churio at AAA to start there are options in case of injury.

    On the INF, you have one of the best young catchers in the game, and you can bring Caratini back for arounf $3 million. Re-sign Adames at SS, Turang at 2B (if he can hit like he did in August he'd be about a 4.0 WAR), and re-sign Santana on a 1-yr deal at 1B. Then you need to go get a 3B, there is no in-house anser right now. Black might be the future but the Brewers need a proven commodity at 3B. I like Monasterio, he really stepped up all season, but he does not produce enough to be a starter at 3B, he could be the utility guy because he can play three positions and puts the ball in play.

    This leaves the pitching and the pen looks like it could be good with Williams, Payamps, Uribe, Milner all solid returners. The starters are a concern, Peralta, maybe Ashby if he's ready to return, maybe they bring back Miley as a solid veteran presence. Houser and Rea provided some rotation depth and could again but neither seems like a must-have. I think they need to trade Burnes, it will be hard to get as much in return any other time and you cannot afford to let him walk for nothing after the season. After last year's arbitration hearing I think he will not sign a long term deal. You go in on Woodruff and hope he is the same guy he has been when 2025 rolls around.

    The Crew needs a 3B and likely to new SP to combine with the pieces they have from last year, then they will need a manager that can guide them back to the post-season.

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    No.  Canha will be back and can play 1st.  If they don't find a suitable trade partner for Yelich maybe he could play 1st?

     

    We are loaded in young outfielders, and the best of the bunch may earn a call up later in the year to boot.  Sure we could be trading one in a package somewhere but I think with this team and our limited payroll the future has to be considered here. 

    The big questions are concerning Burnes and Adames, and in a different light Woody.  Yelich as well.

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    1 hour ago, Bryn Upton said:

    Absolutely not Donaldson. He has almost become Adam Dunn, more XBH than singles and twice as many Ks and hits. He can still make some plays in the field, I agree, but it is not worth a season of his poor hitting. Power is nice but he does not really bring the power. He had about 70 PA and hit 3 HR, at that rate he would need over 450 PA to get to 20HR next season. The Crew only had one 20HR guy so that might seem attractive, but that is not enough overall production to justify signing Donaldson (who made over $20 million last year). Remember at a key moment in the first playoff game, a tie score, with one out and runners at second and third, Donaldson needed to put the ball in play. Any base hit or sac fly gives the Brewers the lead and he popped out weakly. He came up three times with men on in that game and ended up with 0 RBI. The 2015 Dondalson has left the building.

    Of all the things the Brewers did well last year - pitching, defense, and picking up Santana, Canha, and Donaldson, and bringing back Miley - they were awful with projecting power bats. Tellez tried to play hurt for too long and his power suffered. The laundry list of DH/1Bs who were supposed to provide pop was historically bad; Winker, Ruf, Voit, Singleton, and Jones combined for 1HR this year. 

    This might have to be a semi-rebuild for the Brewers given the contract situations and injuries they face. Keeping a veteran like Santana who is a good clubhouse guy (much better reputation that Donaldson), who came in and helped several of the younger players develop patience at the plate (look at the number of pitches guys were seeing after Canha and Santana arrived, I believe they led the league), and as the original post mentioned, he will likely cost less than what the Crew paid Winker for this season.

    The pitching is a whole situation to itself but on the hitting side the Brewers have lots of options in the OF, I'd like to see Taylor in LF, Mitchell in CF, Frelick in RF with Yelich primarily at DH but able to play in the field at times when you want to play match ups. You can have Perkins as a back up at all three positions and you can mix those guys a lot of ways. This gives you very good defense, excellent speed, and room for growth with the bats. With Wiemer and Churio at AAA to start there are options in case of injury.

    On the INF, you have one of the best young catchers in the game, and you can bring Caratini back for arounf $3 million. Re-sign Adames at SS, Turang at 2B (if he can hit like he did in August he'd be about a 4.0 WAR), and re-sign Santana on a 1-yr deal at 1B. Then you need to go get a 3B, there is no in-house anser right now. Black might be the future but the Brewers need a proven commodity at 3B. I like Monasterio, he really stepped up all season, but he does not produce enough to be a starter at 3B, he could be the utility guy because he can play three positions and puts the ball in play.

    This leaves the pitching and the pen looks like it could be good with Williams, Payamps, Uribe, Milner all solid returners. The starters are a concern, Peralta, maybe Ashby if he's ready to return, maybe they bring back Miley as a solid veteran presence. Houser and Rea provided some rotation depth and could again but neither seems like a must-have. I think they need to trade Burnes, it will be hard to get as much in return any other time and you cannot afford to let him walk for nothing after the season. After last year's arbitration hearing I think he will not sign a long term deal. You go in on Woodruff and hope he is the same guy he has been when 2025 rolls around.

    The Crew needs a 3B and likely to new SP to combine with the pieces they have from last year, then they will need a manager that can guide them back to the post-season.

    Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

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    The Brewers will need both a first baseman and hitters that can add production at the designator hitter position.  Santana could be an answer at either position even if the team retains Mark Canha.  

    The question is of course budget;  but it doesn't seem like Santana will be much more costly than Rowdy would have been if kept.  

    And there really isn't much else available on the open market at first base right now.  

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    Just now, Bashopolis said:

    The Brewers will need both a first baseman and hitters that can add production at the designator hitter position.  Santana could be an answer at either position even if the team retains Mark Canha.  

    The question is of course budget;  but it doesn't seem like Santana will be much more costly than Rowdy would have been if kept.  

    And there really isn't much else available on the open market at first base right now.  

    Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

    The first base market doesn't look good this offseason - most of the free agents aren't particularly compelling, really. Which is why I'm okay bringing back Santana for another year.

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    Santana is not a sexy addition to the 2024 but is useful and depending upon the other adds they make, may be a good choice.  He is solid and stabilizing guy.  That being said, there is very little upside.  If the Brewers are going to make a big run next year, they need to make a significant trade for a hitter or roll the dice on the upside with Black and Chourio.  I dont see them going after any big name free agents.

    If I had to decide today, they take the option on Canha and insert him as DH/1b and move Yelich to 1b/DH/LF.  Then go with Chourio and Black in CF and 3b, respectively from day 1.  If they dont succeed right away they can send them to AAA. They can sign a few minor league free agents as insurance if Black/Chourio dont pan out right away.  They need some luck to do well next year, and Black/Chourio are their best shot at it.  Santana is not a needle mover.  He's just a safe choice and I'd rather go for it and if doesnt pan out, do a soft rebuild and compete in 2025.

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