Four Interesting Stats Helping the Brewers to the NL Central Lead

A few bad or average weeks for the offense or the pitching staff can feel like the sky is falling, but then you look up, and the Brewers are still 18 games over .500 for the season. They’ve done it without ever getting white hot. Milwaukee’s longest winning streak is five games, and their best 10-game stretch was 8-2, which the club did just once.

Yet, as the Brewers stand today, they sit only 1.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the top seed in the NL playoffs. One key to the Brewers’ consistency? They have not endured a four-game losing streak this season. Because of that, they have avoided losing chunks of ground in the standings. On the flip side, the Phillies came back to the pack by going 4-13 recently, after they looked like they’d run away and hide.

So, while the Brewers might lack the star power they have in Philly and Los Angeles – whom they are currently tied for the two-seed – Milwaukee wins on the edges with undervalued or overlooked stats. But are these results sustainable and projectable, or simply a run of positivity that has put the Brewers in this position?

OFFENSE: Most runs scored with two outs
In the Brewers’ sweep of the Atlanta Braves, the offense went off for 34 runs on 52 hits, with 24 of those runs coming with two outs. That continued a season-long trend where the Brewers have tallied the most two-out runs in MLB with 238. Is this some skill or statistic a team can lean on?

It’s likely not predictive year to year, but it could say a couple of things about a lineup. For one, they appear to have the mentality of not “giving up” at-bats during games, regardless of the situation. This might sound like something a professional would never do, but in a grueling season, it does happen. Perhaps this group of hungry hitters feels differently. The first two innings of Milwaukee’s last game against Atlanta is a perfect example. Both frames began with the first two hitters retired meekly (three strikeouts and a tapper to the pitcher) and ended with three runs apiece.

The second trait that all the two-out runs could portray is a deep and diverse batting order. While elite bats might be lacking, there are tough outs, guys with power, patient hitters and contact guys to navigate one through nine. It’s been talked about with this group before, especially early in the season.

Previous Brewers’ offenses were less diverse, with many guys geared toward power – and whiffs – making the lineup prone to more frequent, long stretches of futility. The 2024 offense takes pride in fighting its way on base, sometimes taking something out of their swings to succeed and then getting the occasional bomb from an offense that suddenly has found a power stroke. It has all added up to more two-out production than any other club this season.

OFFENSE:  Most plate appearances with runners in scoring position
Having runners in scoring position (RISP) so often fits with the relentless nature of the Brewers’ offense. They constantly pressure the opponent through hits, walks, and stolen bases to get to second and third as quickly and often as possible. And while Milwaukee also has the most hits with RISP, the number of times they bat in that situation is a more reliable skill going forward.

But again, because of the frequency of plate appearances with a chance to drive in runs, the team gets ample opportunity to fail—and still succeed. This also adds continuous stress on the pitching and defense to execute. Suddenly, a wild pitch, an infield hit, the failure to turn two, and many other scenarios can result in a run. It can wear down a pitching staff game to game and throughout a series.

There are times Milwaukee gets men in scoring position and don't come through. Because of how often they put themselves in this situation, it leads to more frustration for fans. Still, it’s better for a team to constantly put runners on second and third while failing a bit more often because, statistically, it will still create more runs in a large sample. Entering the weekend, the Brewers have the second-most runs with RISP and rank fifth in batting average (.274) with RISP, helping them score 4.89 runs per game, good for seventh in MLB.

PITCHING: Highest left-on-base percentage
You hear the phrase “bend but don’t break” for some defenses in football. A pitching staff with a high left-on-base percentage (LOB%) might represent the baseball equivalent. How much they bend depends on the number of base runners they allow, but stranding 77.1% as the Brewers have done will do wonders to limit the damage, regardless.

In fairness, Milwaukee hurlers have the ninth-fewest opponent plate appearances with runners on base. That doesn’t impact their percentage, but it helps limit the opportunities. Of course, that’s a positive on its own that they so infrequently have men on base. Then, with runners aboard, the pitchers seem to bear down:

Brewers’ pitching allowed with men on base (MLB rank):

• .238 AVG (3rd)
• .311 OBP (6th)
• .366 SLG (1st)
• .677 OPS (2nd)

Brewers’ pitching with RISP and two outs (MLB rank):

• .196 AVG (3rd)
• .304 OBP (5th)
• .296 SLG (1st)
• .600 OPS (3rd)

The second group of stats says a lot about the LOB% and the Brewers keeping runs off the board. Getting that final out, particularly with men in scoring position, can be an enormous swing in a game. Their success in these areas is certainly boosted by the Brewers’ defense. That also contributes to the Brewers ranking fifth in ERA (3.77) while having the sixth-worst FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) at 4.37 this season.

PITCHING: Lowest percentage of all hits for extra bases allowed
This one might sound a bit confusing, but essentially, it means that when the Brewers give up hits, they give up the lowest percentage of extra-base hits. Their 31% X/H% plays a large role in the previous stat, an ability to leave runners on base. Opponents are struggling to score more consistently because they have to rely on far more singles rather than doubles, triples, and home runs.

Regularly forcing teams to collect three singles or mix in a walk likely means they aren’t scoring in bunches. By limiting knocks that advance runners multiple bases, Brewers’ pitching can sit in the middle of the pack in opponent average, OBP, and slugging but still keep the plate clean at a top-five clip. And, once again, Milwaukee’s superb defense makes its presence felt by chasing down fly balls, keeping balls on the infield, and ensuring outs are turned into outs.

This allows the offense to battle back in games where they are down a couple of runs instead of five or six. And it helps the club win games 2-1 and 3-2 because the opponent simply can’t break through with crooked numbers. Throughout 162 games, that adds up substantially in Milwaukee’s favor. 

While these four stats aren’t necessarily predictive or have too much meaning, they have been part of the equation to keep the Brewers the clear leader in the NL Central and a contender for a top-two seed. Add to the mix their recent power-hitting surge, the overall depth and talent of the bullpen, and just a bit more consistency from the starting rotation, and suddenly, the Brewers look like a top-tier team instead of a second-class citizen of the league.