How Long Ago Was 2015? A Look At The Last Ten World Series.

No, really. How long ago was 2015? It was "only" eight years ago, but what if I told you the two teams that met in the World Series that year entered the season with the 17th and 21st-ranked payrolls in MLB? Seems pretty inconceivable, eh? That would be like if the Twins & Diamondbacks met in the World Series this year. That'd be cool. Not as cool as the Brewers making it, but still better than the Yankees and Mets or whoever.

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

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We know there are all kinds of supposed truisms when it comes to making and, ideally, winning the World Series. You have to score the most runs, but you also have to allow the fewest runs. You definitely can't give up extra runs in the field. Outspending the competition surely doesn't hurt, either. Ultimately, your best bet is to do all of the aforementioned (& maybe even bang on some trash cans along the way).

What I thought I'd do was go through the last ten full seasons of World Series match-ups to see what, if any, patterns could be gleaned. Below I've listed out those last ten full-season World Series entrants, with the winner at the top. Following in order, are their respective position player WAR, DRS, and runs allowed WAR (all via FanGraphs), plus their Opening Day Payroll via Cot's. MLB ranks for that season within each category are in parentheses.

[This payroll match-up represents the second highest by combined rank in the sample, which is interesting because outside of the Giants position players, neither team got much bang for their buck beside the whole "making the World Series over a bunch of better regular season teams" thing.]

[Cardinals with an uncharacteristically poor showing on defense, one of only four teams in the sample with a negative DRS. Spoiler Alert: they all lost their respective WS. Red Sox were the better team across the board, and not even Cardinal devil magic could prevail.]

[Royals with the lowest position player WAR in the sample versus Giants with the lowest rWAR in the sample. Ultimately Mad Bum going berserk was too much for Ned Yost's scrappy underdogs to overcome.]

[The titular bizarro 2015 Fall Classic. The Royals, somehow with a higher Opening Day payroll than the New York City Metropolitans, and with the aforementioned Ned Yost captaining the ship by batting Alcides Escobar lead off...you know what, it's so crazy it might just work.]

[Cleveland put together a shoestring juggernaut for one of only two teams in the sample with an OD payroll below $100M. Unfortunately, they ran into maybe the most juggernaut-iest team in the whole sample as the Cubs were the only entrant to rank first in all three position players WAR, DRS, and runs allowed WAR. It sounds like a dynasty in the making; sure, they'll show up some more in subsequent years.]

[Astros' first World Series winner was the last one with a bottom-half OD payroll and one of only two Fall Classic winners in the sample. It feels a little weird looking back on the most dominant team of the last six years as an underdog here, but the Dodgers had a more balanced squad, almost doubled them in OD payroll, and it ended up not mattering.]

[The highest match-up in the sample by OD payroll rank. But ultimately, as it was always ordained to be Mookie Betts, no wait Chris Sale, oops make that David Price, ok had to be JD Martinez, scratch that, Steve Pearce who toppled the mighty Dodgers and took home World Series MVP before returning to being Steve Pearce.]

[Astros had the highest position player WAR in the sample, the second highest DRS in the sample, and the second highest runs allowed WAR in the sample. Right there with the 2016 Cubs across the board, maybe even ahead of them when you add it all up. But Strasburg and a freshly twenty-one-year-old Juan Soto were too much for Houston to handle.]

[Once again, the Astros found themselves in the World Series with the better team, though the pitching was close. When the dust settled, Houston's collection of stars at the plate couldn't quite keep pace with World Series MVP Jorge Soler, who promptly returned to being Steve Pearce.]

[Despite having the third highest OD payroll in the sample by actual cash, the Phillies team is one of the more underwhelming entrants in the sample with the 3rd lowest position player WAR, 2nd worst DRS, and a bottom six pitching staff. Astros just keep biting that apple.]

CATEGORY NOTES
Position Player WAR: the WS team with higher position player WAR has gone 6-4 in the last ten full season World Series. The average winner has had 30.0 WAR and a 4th ranking; the average loser has 27.6 WAR and a 6th ranking. The last three #1 ranked teams in this category have lost the WS, the lowest to win were 2015 KCR (9th) and 2021 ATL (8th).

Defensive Runs Saved: as noted earlier, the only four teams to make the Fall Classic with negative DRS lost. The overall theme is just coming out in the positive with a 5-5 record for teams with the better DRS. 2018 BOS at +10 DRS (15th) was the worst fielding team to win a WS in the sample.

Runs Allowed WAR: another split at 5-5 for the team with the better rWAR, though the two San Francisco teams, skew the sample somewhat. Losing teams averaged 22.0 WAR and a 7th ranking; winning teams with SF included came in at 21.7 WAR and an 8th ranking. Remove their two outlier seasons, and it goes to a 5-3 record with 24.2 WAR and a 4th ranking for the other eight WS winners in the sample.

Opening Day Payroll: the team with the higher OD payroll has gone 6-4 during the sample. Only three Fall Classics in the sample featured two top ten OD payrolls - 2012 (#6 vs. #5), 2018 (#1 vs. #3), and 2019 (#4 vs. #9). The last two World Series have featured payroll upsets, and only two #1 payrolls have even made the last ten Fall Classics, not good signs for Stevzie Cohen. At the same time, the Brewers currently clock in 20th in OD payroll with only three teams making the last ten Fall Classics with a payroll that low, and all three losing at that. These are not good signs for Brewers fans, either.

Another possible trend to keep an eye on with regards to OD payroll from 2012-17 is the cumulative rank of WS participants was about 23; there were a lot more mid and small markets represented, with half the WS teams ranking 12th or lower. From 2018-22 that cumulative rank has been about 12 to 13, with only two teams (25%) ranking 10th or lower, though those same two teams also won the last two World Series, to remind us how random this whole enterprise truly is.

What do you think? Is there anything we missed? Something in the numbers that jump out to your eyes?