How the Brewers Can Bounce Back and Win Game 2

Despite a final score of 8-4, don’t let the box score mislead you into thinking that the Brewers were clearly overmatched by the Mets. They performed well early against Luis Severino, accumulating eight hits and four total runs over six innings against him. Brice Turang had a great night at the plate, going 3-for-5 with two doubles, and Jackson Chourio made great defensive and offensive plays in his first October showing. It was a disastrous bullpen collapse in the fifth inning that ultimately tilted things New York's way, but the other innings were competitive to say the least. Now facing elimination and yet another October sweep, the Brewers will have to stay focused on what they can do better in what will hopefully be the next two games of the series.

Sean Manaea will be taking the mound in the second game. This was a great year for him, especially after two rough ones split between the Padres and Giants. The lefty pitched to a 3.47 ERA, with a 1.08 WHIP and 184 strikeouts over 181 ⅔ innings. Utilizing a four-pitch arsenal, his bread-and-butter is the sinker, which has a whiff rate of 20.8% and a .201 opposing batting average. Since he changed his mechanics in August and committed to giving hitters a new set of angles, the sinker and his sweeper have paired brilliantly with one another. Manaea says he undertook a conscious imitation of Chris Sale, and the results have been good enough to stop you from chuckling at the parallel.

The Brewers have been around league average against southpaws, posting a .713 OPS as a team, but they do have a walk rate of 10.3% against left-handed pitching, second in MLB behind just the Yankees. Most importantly, they’re exceptional against lefty sinkers, with an .895 team OPS, fourth in MLB. Thus, it makes sense that they played particularly well against Manaea in their only meeting this year, putting up seven hits and five earned runs in just 3 ⅔ innings on Sept. 27. He relies on that sinker about 60 percent of the time, so the Crew need to go up there looking for it.

Bullpen-wise, Carlos Mendoza was conservative in the first game and used just two arms: José Butto and Ryne Stanek. This leaves most of their highest-performing pieces, like Edwin Díaz, Phil Maton, and Reed Garrett fresh and ready to be deployed. However, Díaz has already thrown 66 pitches over the past few days, a relatively heavy workload that might keep him out until Game 3. The Mets will probably trot out at least one of their less intimidating relievers, someone like Adam Ottavino or Danny Young, another opportunity for the Brewers’ lineup to put up some scoring.

On Milwaukee’s side, Frankie Montas has been marked as the starter. The most worrying thing about Montas is that, after seeming to dial in during August, he’s been a lot more hittable in September. Most notably, his outing on Sept. 22 saw him give up seven earned runs against the Diamondbacks in just under three innings. A fastball-dominant pitcher, Montas lives and dies by the sword, striking out 11 batters per nine innings but giving up hard contact to do so. The Mets have struggled against right-handed splitters in 2024, managing just a .508 OPS against them. As his most frequently-thrown non-fastball pitch, the splitter could see more action in his start. He'll just need to be careful not to give away his pitch grips, as he did during that clunker against Arizona.

If Pat Murphy needs to go to the bullpen earlier than expected, he can use Joe Ross or even DL Hall to eat innings. For higher leverage, he still has Devin Williams and Trevor Megill ready and waiting. Jared Koenig is the only other bullpen option, as it would make sense for Tobias Myers to be saved for a Game 3 start.

The Mets are very beatable, and the Brewers have more than enough tools to get the job done. There’s no use languishing in the past. ;it’s time to lock in on the future.