How Willy Adames Can Break Out (Again) in 2024

Willy Adames quickly became a fan favorite in Milwaukee, riding the hot winds of form to carry a stagnant Brewers offense to a franchise-record number of regular-season Wins. Since then, he has retained the power he showed despite going through various approaches. Unfortunately, he hasn’t found the same offensive surge he achieved in 2021. In 2024, that could all change.

Approach and Plate Discipline
One criticism of Adames in his first two seasons in Milwaukee was his impatience at the plate. The result was a high chase rate, which hurt his on-base percentage. He went into the 2023 season with the objective of walking 70 times. He achieved that goal with an 11.1% walk rate, placing him in the top 20% in the league. Improved strike zone discipline typically helps a hitter’s batting average, but that wasn’t the case for Adames, who hit a career-low .217 in 2023. However, the positive developments in his plate discipline should increase his floor as a hitter significantly.

What went wrong with the bat?
The Brewers' shortstop continued to loft the ball consistently, but he stopped hitting the ball hard with any regularity. He posted career lows in average, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, meaning fewer of those fly balls and line drives found the grass.

In addition, Statcast suggests he was quite an unfortunate hitter. His 2023 slash line was .217/.310/.407, but he had an xBA (Expected Batting Average) of .240 and xSlg (Expected Slugging Percentage) of .436, which could have taken him to a .779 OPS and a much more palatable performance from one of the Brewers' key offensive contributors. Still, even that would have fallen well short of his offensive impact in 2021. So, how can he reach those lofty heights once again?

Adames Hit Tool Was Somehow Better in 2023
One measure of a good hitter is someone who regularly puts the ball in play from various locations within the strike zone. As such, one could argue, per the graphic below, that Adames was better in 2023 than he was in 2021: 

The scarcity of blue on the left graphic (2023) is perhaps an indicator of the work Adames has put in without getting the reward, performing significantly better in his expected batting average in a far greater area of the strike zone while simultaneously cutting down on his chase rate. Perhaps a breakout isn’t as far off as we think. He has passable quality of contact in the strike zone, above-average plate discipline, and elevates the ball better than 91 percent of the league, which leaves just one final hurdle;

The Exit Velocity
Adames’ average exit velocity dipped significantly from 89.5 mph in 2021 to 87.4 mph in 2023, which may not sound like much, but throughout a season can produce dramatically different results. Here are Adames’ exit velocities by zone year on year:

He has remained relatively consistent in several areas, with pitches up and away being a considerable strength, while struggling with pitches in on his hands for the most part. He has improved at dealing with his more troubled locations, but the biggest differences are in his damage zones. In 2021 and 2022, pitches on the middle stripe got hammered, meaning you couldn’t get away with mistake pitches too often. The other area is down and inside. When pitchers tried to get in on the handle but didn’t elevate enough, he punished them. 

In 2023, he dipped notably in these areas, with the 84 mph down and inside a real drop off and a slight drop in those mistake zones over the heart of the plate. He changed a lot in 2023, but there’s no reason why he can’t find that ability to punish pitchers again, and in fact, he did manage to reclaim it over short spurts in 2023. We could delve into technical adjustments and the effects of a more patient approach. However, there’s another reason why Adames may have struggled to find those long surges of form he produced in both 2021 and 2022: the concussion.

Willy Adames was leaning over the guard rail in the dugout when a cannon of a line drive hit him squarely in the head. He required a hospital visit and was put on the concussion IL before returning to play 11 days later, which meant all should be fine, right? Unfortunately, this isn’t the case; as the recipient of several concussions myself, they can be incredibly difficult to diagnose or even recognize until you come out on the other side of it. It affects your mood, concentration, and even occasionally your body movements. Still, in baseball, where failure is so common and your mental strength is vital, the effects it could have are not to be underestimated. 

Adames found his swing for brief periods, as mentioned earlier, such as before the all-star break, and it’s not a stretch of the imagination to see the benefits of his hitting developments in the last two seasons illustrated by the power he possesses alongside a healthy mind and body for the season ahead. Adames’ performance metrics suggest that 2023 was more of an outlier in terms of his hitting and power numbers, but what do you think? Can Willy achieve a send-off in style? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!