Brewers Video
Last December’s trade to acquire Ángel Zerpa in exchange for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears was a surprising move to many. There were layers of complexity to the front office's thesis, but most of it was based on the idea that Zerpa had far more upside than the pieces that Milwaukee was sending to Kansas City. It seems obvious, but deriving the future value calculation is easier said than done. Luckily, our very own Jack Stern did an excellent job discussing what he could bring to the table.
Fans didn’t get to see much of Zerpa in spring training, because he spent his time representing Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic, but his participation in the tournament arguably offered more optimism than any work in the Cactus League could have. On the way to winning it all, Zerpa posted a flawless 0.00 ERA over 5 ⅓ innings pitched with three hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts—one of which came against a young up-and-comer by the name of Shohei Ohtani.
His stock quickly reached an all-time high, at least in the eyes of Brewers fans, but after seven regular-season appearances, his numbers don’t seem to be those of the pitcher Milwaukee thought they were getting. Across eight innings, Zerpa has a 6.75 ERA, with an 11.1% strikeout rate and below-average peripherals across the board.
It’s worth pointing out that four of his six earned runs came on April 12 against the Nationals. In this outing, he gave up four hits and one walk while getting just two outs. Part of this was Washington playing a particularly aggressive brand of baseball, looking to steal bases and put balls in play by any means necessary. One could argue that this added an atypical amount of pressure, but it’s still not enough to explain why Zerpa hasn’t looked dominant at all this year.
As a sinker/slider pitcher with league-average velocity, it’s expected that his run prevention comes mostly in the form of ground balls, and he does have a respectable 57.1% ground-ball rate. However, striking out one in nine hitters is just too low to be effective in the long term. He’s not expected to miss too many bats with his sinker, but opposing hitters are making quality contact too often, averaging .286 with a .429 slugging percentage against the pitch.
Although he has only thrown it nine times, his changeup already carries a run value of -3. It has only been put into play once, ending up as a home run for Willson Contreras. Otherwise, it has lackluster numbers across the board. Part of the issue could be its similarity to his sinker, coming in just 5 MPH slower and sharing similar movement profiles. It has never been a particularly effective weapon for him in the big leagues, and it may be time to make (pardon the pun) a change.
Nonetheless, it’s far too early for the Brewers to be out on Zerpa. Reliever ERAs are notorious for being easily inflated, especially early in the season, and he’s far from the only bullpen arm whose results have been subpar. Eight innings may not be enough to decide whether he’s suitable for the team, but there’s enough data to raise some important red flags. Whether it ends up being his sequencing, pitch mix, or some other esoteric mechanical adjustment, Milwaukee will likely need to change something if they want this bet to pay off.
Follow Brewer Fanatic For Milwaukee Brewers News & Analysis
-
1
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now