Is Andrew Vaughn Paving Way for Return of Rhys Hoskins?

Milwaukee’s first base situation has had its fair share of ups and downs. After a rough year by Rowdy Tellez in 2023, the Brewers ponied up a heap of cash (by their standards) to pick up Rhys Hoskins on a two-year deal. His tenure as a Brewer has been lukewarm at best, averaging a .739 OPS since joining the team, but his numbers appear even worse when considering his high salary and lack of defensive value.

Though still far from his career peak in 2022, Hoskins was playing better this year before being sidelined with a sprained left thumb in early July. That injury led the Crew to promote Andrew Vaughn, who had been acquired in June to hedge against this very situation. Expectations were as low as can be, given that Vaughn had been worth -1.8 rWAR across 48 games with the White Sox, but as usual, the Brewers captured lightning in a bottle. Vaughn posted a whopping 212 wRC+ in his first month with the club. Part of his success was due to some key mechanical adjustments, but deep down, many fans wondered how long the thrill ride would last. 

It seems we now have our answer. From August 8 onward, Vaughn has regressed to a 61 wRC+ over 97 plate appearances, as big-league pitchers are now privy to what his key weaknesses are. That hasn’t stopped the Brewers from maintaining their comfortable lead in the division, but as the postseason approaches, the team has to make a choice on whom they’ll start at first base. While Vaughn has been on a cold stretch, Hoskins has been tearing it up on his Triple-A rehab assignment, posting a 148 wRC+ in the 10 games he has played so far. More importantly, now that he’s almost back to full health, the pop in his bat seems to have returned as well, as he’s slugging .568 over this span with four doubles and two home runs.

In addition to tapping back into his power, he has maintained his elite plate discipline, striking out just 11.4% of the time while walking at a 13.6% clip. In the big leagues this year, he struck out 26.7% of the time. His more recent numbers are obviously against minor-league pitching, but they’re a sign that his strengths have remained intact while his weaknesses are moving in the right direction. But what about Vaughn? Is he still somehow making a case to at least remain on the roster, perhaps even in a new position?

The reality is, there was almost certainly going to be a correction in Vaughn’s numbers. After five big-league seasons, we more or less know what we’re getting out of him over a large sample size. In the aforementioned span stretching from August 8 to the present, his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are down quite a bit, compared to his season average. He’s pulling the ball less frequently, hitting fewer line drives and more warning-track fly balls, and could even be considered unlucky with his .222 BABIP. In many ways, this version of Vaughn is more lore-accurate than the offensive behemoth we saw in July. 

He’ll continue to take reps at first base for now, especially since the Brewers recently announced that they’re taking it nice and easy with Hoskins and his rehab assignment, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Vaughn slowly cedes playing time over the final weeks of the regular season. Fortunately, there are pros to both outcomes. If Vaughn makes the necessary adjustments to revive his offensive production, then the Brewers will reap the rewards. If he continues his current skid, then the decision around who will get the lion’s share of playing time at his position will be clear as day.