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  • Is Brandon Woodruff a Brewers Trade Candidate?


    Nash Walker

    The Brewers have boasted one of most dominant duos of starting pitchers in baseball for the last several years. Are those days coming to an end?

    Image courtesy of Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

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    Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff have combined to strike out a remarkable 878 batters over the last two seasons. On their own, they’re two of the very best pitchers in the league. Together, they form a truly unstoppable force. The Brewers made the playoffs for four straight seasons before 2022, with Woodruff and Burnes as key reasons why.

    Things could be different in 2023. 

    The Brewers have Aaron Ashby and Freddy Peralta under contract long-term, but Woodruff, Burnes and Eric Lauer will all become free agents following the 2024 season. It’s highly unlikely that Milwaukee will extend all three, with a good bet that they’ll retain only one. One can guess that one would be Burnes, the 2021 National League Cy Young winner. 

    So where does that leave Woodruff, Burnes’ partner in dismantling hitters? 

    Woodruff, 29, is exactly the type of pitcher many teams would covet. Since 2018, the 6-foot-4, 243-pound righty has posted a 3.06 ERA (137 ERA+) with an identical 3.06 FIP. Woodruff has notched three seasons in a row with an ERA of 3.05 or lower. He’s one of the best, most consistent starters in the league. 

    Since 2020, Woodruff ranks 16th in ERA (2.84), eighth in strikeouts (492) and eighth in b-Wins Above Replacement (10.4). Woodruff has been more valuable, by bWAR, than Gerrit Cole, Luis Castillo and Yu Darvish over the last three seasons. Woodruff is a bonafide No. 1 starter and is a luxury as the No. 2 in Milwaukee’s rotation. 

    It’s feasible that the Brewers decide to hang onto Woodruff and go for it again in 2023 and 2024. The team was close to the playoffs this season and can hope for improved health from Peralta and a better year from Christian Yelich. Per MLB Pipeline, the Brewers’ top six prospects are all position players. There’s real optimism for improved offense in the not-too-distant future. 

    That didn’t stop the Crew from trading Josh Hader, though, who was just over a year from free agency and expected to earn a considerable raise via arbitration. Woodruff’s situation could be similar with prominent, talented prospects waiting on the other end. 

    **What might a Brandon Woodruff contract extension look like?**

    A rotation of Burnes, Peralta, Ashby, Lauer and Adrian Houser could be enough to compete again in 2023. The loss of Woodruff would sting but recent packages for Frankie Montas, Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo provide a glimpse of what Milwaukee could get in return. If they’re not going to extend him, why not cash in now?

    The Yankees dealt three of their top 10 prospects for Montas, while the Mariners parted with a significant package headlined by MLB Pipeline’s No. 17 prospect in Noelvi Marte for Castillo. The Twins acquired Tyler Mahle for two breakouts in Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand along with promising lefty Steve Hajjar

    **Speaking of the Twins, could they be a potential trade partner for the Brewers and Woodruff?**

    On the flip side, Woodruff is a homegrown star in the midst of his prime. There’s little reason *not* to extend both Woodruff and Burnes, outside of the elevated price tags. As long as those two are in Brewers uniforms, the floor of the team will always be fairly high. It’s a unique and special pairing. 

    If the Brewers want to keep their co-aces together, they’ll likely need to get creative with the rest of the roster to stay within their self-imposed budget. A league-minimum, talented outfield of Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, and Sal Frelick could be a potential solution, as the team waits for Jackson Chourio to arrive too. 

    After a disappointing finish to 2022 and with only three players under guaranteed contracts for 2023, the Brewers have an interesting offseason ahead. Will they run it back and try to win again? Or will they decide to cash in and improve their farm system, with Woodruff a clear trade candidate?

    What should the Brewers do with Woodruff? Trade, hold, or extend? Comment below!

     

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    I think Burnes is a more likely trade candidate, as I believe the Brewers have less of a chance of extending him past arb.

    I hope I’m wrong but that’s the situation I see. 

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    8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    I think Burnes is a more likely trade candidate, as I believe the Brewers have less of a chance of extending him past arb.

    I hope I’m wrong but that’s the situation I see. 

    Yeah, if you can find the money for either, obviously you would trade Woodruff. But that's likely not the reality we're living in. 

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    15 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    Yeah, if you can find the money for either, obviously you would trade Woodruff. But that's likely not the reality we're living in. 

    Yeah, disregarding money you keep Burnes over Woodruff close to 100% of the time... but that's not the way baseball works, unfortunately.

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    Everyone is a trade candidate if you find a trading partner who values the player more than you do.

    My preference would be to ride out Woodruff and Burnes for at least one more season, extending either if you can for even one season of FA. But it's equally reasonable to trade Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames for (mostly) MLB-ready players with an eye on competing in 2024..

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    5 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

    Everyone is a trade candidate if you find a trading partner who values the player more than you do.

    My preference would be to ride out Woodruff and Burnes for at least one more season, extending either if you can for even one season of FA. But it's equally reasonable to trade Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames for (mostly) MLB-ready players with an eye on competing in 2024..

    I think that's where management is leaning too, judging by the "opportunistic" and "very intent on returning to the playoffs in 2023" remarks from Arnold and Attanasio. And then before he stepped down, Stearns said they were going to bring back "the core". 

    They would probably have to be blown away by an offer to trade one of the big 3. They will listen though, as they always do and should. 

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    8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    I think that's where management is leaning too, judging by the "opportunistic" and "very intent on returning to the playoffs in 2023" remarks from Arnold and Attanasio. And then before he stepped down, Stearns said they were going to bring back "the core". 

    They would probably have to be blown away by an offer to trade one of the big 3. They will listen though, as they always do and should. 

    The Brewers rarely do what we think they’ll do. Opportunistic could also mean trading Burnes this offseason because we will be blown away by trade offers since an ace starter is the most valuable commodity in baseball and by a lot, and 2 years of said commodity is worth more than twice what 1 year is worth.

     

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    59 minutes ago, SF70 said:

    The Brewers rarely do what we think they’ll do. Opportunistic could also mean trading Burnes this offseason because we will be blown away by trade offers since an ace starter is the most valuable commodity in baseball and by a lot, and 2 years of said commodity is worth more than twice what 1 year is worth.

     

    That's your opinion, which you've stated repeatedly, and you're certainly entitled to it. But the likely scenario, even beyond their comments, continues to be that they run it back with the big 3 still in tow. They're not going to trade Burnes/Woodruff/Adames for the sake of trading them while they're still under two years of control. They want to compete at a high level and get back to the playoffs in 2023 and having Burnes/Woodruff at the top of the rotation and Adames at SS almost certainly gives them their best shot to do so. They'll listen to offers, given the realities of the market and the fact they want to keep getting future "bites at the apple", but any trade will have to meet their high asking price and outweigh the immediate costs of losing such a player. 

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    2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    That's your opinion, which you've stated repeatedly, and you're certainly entitled to it. But the likely scenario, even beyond their comments, continues to be that they run it back with the big 3 still in tow. They're not going to trade Burnes/Woodruff/Adames for the sake of trading them while they're still under two years of control. They want to compete at a high level and get back to the playoffs in 2023 and having Burnes/Woodruff at the top of the rotation and Adames at SS gives them a great shot to do so. They'll listen to offers, given the realities of the market and the fact they want to keep getting future "bites at the apple", but any trade will have to meet their high asking price and outweigh the immediate costs of losing such a player. 

    I don’t see them turning down the type of return they will get for Burnes this offseason. It will virtually assure the team of extending their contention timeframe, which imo, seems to be their overriding goal.

     

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    4 minutes ago, SF70 said:

    I don’t see them turning down the type of return they will get for Burnes this offseason. It will virtually assure the team of extending their contention timeframe, which imo, seems to be their overriding goal.

     

    I wouldn't automatically assume they'll get an offer for Burnes that they can't turn down. They might get lowballed for Burnes, while having a different team exceed their asking price for Adames and/or Woodruff. As far as their overriding goal, the big man himself said the other day that they're "VERY intent" on returning to the postseason in 2022. That becomes a more difficult task were they to trade any of the big three. 

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    If Stearns was the GM, I would be 95% confident either Burnes or Woodruff hits the road out of town.

    Now that Arnold is the main guy and he will have a new conversation with ownership I am less confident. Attanasio is very fan-like and is one of those owners that legitimately would love to win a World Series. Attanasio has also been proven to be a bit reactionary and emotional over the years. Demanding things like FA signings and signing elite players to long term contracts. He certainly gave the reigns more to Stearns, but he still likely was the one forcing a Yelich extension. After trading Hader and watching the team/fanbase implode, I definitely could see them keeping everyone in tow and trying to make big moves. 

    If I had to guess, I doubt Attanasio (whether Arnold wants to or not) lets one of the aces get traded, UNLESS it is like they tried to do with Fielder when he was near FA...acquire win-now talent in return. Since those trade don't exactly happen outside of MLB: The Show, I am guessing they both return.

    It would send a brutal message to the fanbase if they traded Hader, the 2022 season imploded, and then they started making it look like a fire sale this winter. 

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    18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    I wouldn't automatically assume they'll get an offer for Burnes that they can't turn down. They might get lowballed for Burnes, while having a different team exceed their asking price for Adames and/or Woodruff. As far as their overriding goal, the big man himself said the other day that they're "VERY intent" on returning to the postseason in 2022. That becomes a more difficult task were they to trade any of the big three. 

    Yeah, I'm starting to wonder if maybe we're doing what some fans did with Hader. 

    I got into a Twitter debate with a fan at the start of this season in which he stated we'd get "at least 4 top 100 prospects" back for Hader.

    I don't think 4 top 100 or 150 prospects is expecting too much for Burnes, but a lot of us are naturally just looking at teams who appear to be likely invested in getting an ace and picking 3 or 4 of their top 5-10 prospects. A team would have to be pretty desperate. And that may well happen, but if it doesn't, we should just hold onto them. 

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    1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

    Yeah, I'm starting to wonder if maybe we're doing what some fans did with Hader. 

    I got into a Twitter debate with a fan at the start of this season in which he stated we'd get "at least 4 top 100 prospects" back for Hader.

    I don't think 4 top 100 or 150 prospects is expecting too much for Burnes, but a lot of us are naturally just looking at teams who appear to be likely invested in getting an ace and picking 3 or 4 of their top 5-10 prospects. A team would have to be pretty desperate. And that may well happen, but if it doesn't, we should just hold onto them. 

    But that’s the type of return this team would likely get if they shopped Burnes this offseason, especially from a team like the Dodgers who would have a leg-up with extending Burnes, imo.

    This offseason is the sweet-spot for trading Burnes and maximizing return. Higher probability for the trading team to extend him 2 years out from FA vs 1.

    Last year, at 3 years control, how many teams would have had the prospect capital to trade for Burnes? or even if they did, would have given that much up?

    This team needs to acquire big-league ready starting pitching prospects to replace Burnes, Woody and Lauer before OD/‘25. 

    Waiting another year puts injury and or regression into the equation. Even with all things being equal, the return shrinks to less than half due to Burnes higher ‘23 salary.

    For all of these reasons I believe the team trades Burnes this offseason.

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    3 hours ago, SF70 said:

    But that’s the type of return this team would likely get if they shopped Burnes this offseason, especially from a team like the Dodgers who would have a leg-up with extending Burnes, imo.

    This offseason is the sweet-spot for trading Burnes and maximizing return. Higher probability for the trading team to extend him 2 years out from FA vs 1.

    Last year, at 3 years control, how many teams would have had the prospect capital to trade for Burnes? or even if they did, would have given that much up?

    This team needs to acquire big-league ready starting pitching prospects to replace Burnes, Woody and Lauer before OD/‘25. 

    Waiting another year puts injury and or regression into the equation. Even with all things being equal, the return shrinks to less than half due to Burnes higher ‘23 salary.

    For all of these reasons I believe the team trades Burnes this offseason.

    Burnes has one of the higher trade values in the game. Definitely the highest for a player with 2 years of control remaining. Any trade will do a significant amount of damage to a team's top 10 prospect list. There's plenty of reason to be skeptical that a team will ultimately meet that asking price. The Brewers certainly aren't going to rush to trade him just because he only has 2 years of control remaining, when his presence at the top of the rotation is the single biggest reason why the Brewers have a chance to make it back to the postseason. They will want every bit of what he's worth to even consider parting with him. 

    I agree with TPlush that we also need to think about this from a team image/marketing standpoint. The front office got absolutely excoriated by the fanbase and the media for the Hader trade. Do we think that Arnold and Attanasio are now going to go ahead the very next offseason and trade the most dominant starting pitcher in franchise history and incite an even greater backlash, particularly during a time when attendance has been relatively lackluster? 

    A Burnes trade may make perfect sense on paper, but, for the aforementioned reasons, the actual chances of it happening are probably less than 50%. 

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    48 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    Burnes has one of the higher trade values in the game. Definitely the highest for a player with 2 years of control remaining. Any trade will do a significant amount of damage to a team's top 10 prospect list. There's plenty of reason to be skeptical that a team will ultimately meet that asking price. The Brewers certainly aren't going to rush to trade him just because he only has 2 years of control remaining, when his presence at the top of the rotation is the single biggest reason why the Brewers have a chance to make it back to the postseason. They will want every bit of what he's worth to even consider parting with him. 

    I agree with TPlush that we also need to think about this from a team image/marketing standpoint. The front office got absolutely excoriated by the fanbase and the media for the Hader trade. Do we think that Arnold and Attanasio are now going to go ahead the very next offseason and trade the most dominant starting pitcher in franchise history and incite an even greater backlash, particularly during a time when attendance has been relatively lackluster? 

    A Burnes trade may make perfect sense on paper, but, for the aforementioned reasons, the actual chances of it happening are probably less than 50%. 

    Paper is all that should matter. Arnold & co need to do what’s best for the organization with absolutely zero regard for potential fan reaction. Attanasio is no dummy, he’s smart enough to want what’s best for the team.

    A top 3 SP in the game shopped to the highest bidder will return the talent needed to not just extend the “bites at the apple” contention strategy, but improve the overall talent level of this organization beyond anything we’d get by holding Burnes for another year.

    Realistically Burnes returns — 1 top 25, 1 top 50, 1 top 100. With at least 2 of them big-league ready. That’s a fair return. That’s also a return more valuable to this team at this time than keeping Burnes for this coming season.

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    2 minutes ago, SF70 said:

    Paper is all that should matter. Arnold & co need to do what’s best for the organization with absolutely zero regard for potential fan reaction. Attanasio is no dummy, he’s smart enough to want what’s best for the team.

    A top 3 SP in the game shopped to the highest bidder will return the talent needed to not just extend the “bites at the apple” contention strategy, but improve the overall talent level of this organization beyond anything we’d get by holding Burnes for another year.

    Realistically Burnes returns — 1 top 25, 1 top 50, 1 top 100. With at least 2 of them big-league ready. That’s a fair return. That’s also a return more valuable to this team at this time than keeping Burnes for this coming season.

    They want to compete this season, too. Without Burnes, that task becomes a heck of a lot more difficult. Above all else, Attanasio cares about making money. Trading your two best pitchers over such a short period of time amidst increasingly lackluster attendance and fan discontent will not help with that. 

    Paper may be all that should matter, but the real world is not played out on paper. 

     

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    2 hours ago, SF70 said:

    Paper is all that should matter. Arnold & co need to do what’s best for the organization with absolutely zero regard for potential fan reaction. 

    A top 3 SP in the game shopped to the highest bidder will return the talent needed to not just extend the “bites at the apple” contention strategy, but improve the overall talent level of this organization beyond anything we’d get by holding Burnes for another year.

    Realistically Burnes returns — 1 top 25, 1 top 50, 1 top 100. With at least 2 of them big-league ready. That’s a fair return. That’s also a return more valuable to this team at this time than keeping Burnes for this coming season.

    Those statements are inherently at odds. They should have absolutely "zero regard" for fan reaction?

    Brewers fans spending more per capita than ANY other fan base in MLB is one of the things that allows the Brewers in the miniscule market they've got to spend as much as they do(cheap as you may believe Attnasio to believe, look at the Pirates, the Os, the Guardians, the As...all the other teams in similar markets), that is absolutely part of what's best for this organization. Look at the Guardians. I remember how they had this ridiculous sellout record goin...it was like 588 days(I don't remember, it's a long list). They've really hurt their relationship with their fan base. Some of that may just be fans complacent with 90 win seasons and some of the luster having worn off on that, but they also don't develop connections with the players as they once did. 
    I'm not saying you don't trade Burnes and Woodruff, but maintaining a good relationship with your fanbase is absolutely relevant and important. 

     

    7 hours ago, SF70 said:

    But that’s the type of return this team would likely get if they shopped Burnes this offseason, especially from a team like the Dodgers who would have a leg-up with extending Burnes, imo.

    This offseason is the sweet-spot for trading Burnes and maximizing return. Higher probability for the trading team to extend him 2 years out from FA vs 1.

    I'm talking about deals like Grayson Rodriguez and Jackson Holliday or Bobby Miller, Vargas, Stone and Pepiot or Cartaya.  

    I'm not going after anyone's trade suggestions because I've suggested pretty much that Dodgers trade(it's actually my favorite in theory, a 1B prospect and then 3 power righties who are MLB ready. One who could plug into the rotation and then 2 more who could also slide into the rotation or who could come in and throw 2-3-4 innings out of the pen. 

    I just think we're are probably expecting a little bit too much back. Sure, we're in the sweet spot in theory. Though maybe you run into a team like Seattle that's desperate for a playoff run for their fanbase(Baltimore) or the LAA start out, they get hot this year and they're a pitcher away from contending...and they're willing to pay more to get that ace. 

    I also think we SHOULD expect a kings ransom because Burnes is so valuable. 

    3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    Burnes has one of the higher trade values in the game. Definitely the highest for a player with 2 years of control remaining.

    Juan Soto says hi! 
    I'm thinking he slipped your mind...or maybe you disagree? Not really important as the larger point is that Burnes has immense value. 

    7 hours ago, SF70 said:

    Waiting another year puts injury and or regression into the equation. Even with all things being equal, the return shrinks to less than half due to Burnes higher ‘23 salary.

    Walker Buehler is an example of this if you throw in injury with regression. Buehler was in a class right with Burnes just last year. 6.6 WAR vs 5.6. Now I saw someone propose a trade of Adames and Burnes that included Buehler and someone said there was "no point" in adding Buehler. While I don't agree with that, it shows how quickly a player can lose value.

    That said, if Burnes stays healthy, I'm not sure you can quantify how much value he loses. I don't know if it's 50% because he's got 50% less service time....why? Because...as pointed out, the game isn't played on paper. Teams get desperate. Again, just the two teams I mentioned...or maybe the Twins who've been getting more and more aggressive. The Jays might be a team that's got this dominant lineup but lacking an ace. 

     

    The point I'm making is that I understand both sides of this. Part of me wants to trade Burnes now and I'd be more than happy to get back....4 pitchers with elite stuff. Try and identify the next Steven Strider(Which may be someone like Bobby Miller) and a couple other elite arms. But;

    2 hours ago, SF70 said:

    That’s also a return more valuable to this team at this time than keeping Burnes for this coming season.

    This isn't true if it gets the Brewer to the World Series or wins them a World Series. I don't think there is a significant difference in trade value from trading him this winter vs this deadline, so maybe see how things play out. Lets say...hypothetically, Frelick/Turang looks like a .280.360/.420 type hitter with elite defense, maybe Yelich comes back and he gets hot and spends the off-seasons working on his core, his back, he gets a little bit of that bat speed back and he hads some loft to the ball again(his exit velo(90%) and hard hit rate(98%) have both been exceptional, just mostly on the ground). 

    Maybe Uribe becomes a Emanuel Clase, Peralta gets back to his 2021 status, it clicks for Ashby and HE becomes a legitimate #2/3 pitcher. Lauer throws 180IP and does so at a high level, Houser stays healthy. Adames doesn't have the abnormally low BABIP and he retains the power without the fluke, career low BA/OBP. 



    I don't disagree with anyone in this thread and this is a case where no matter what we do(unlike with the Packers today) I'll understand whatever they move and the rationale for it. But it's just a bit more complicated and nuanced, and we should look at it from other teams perspectives. 

    If you're Texas, do you really want to give up Jung, Carter, Lieter and Foscue?

     

    It's gonna be a very difficult decision and you're gonna piss of fans and you're going take a risk either way. 

     

    Lets just extend him and render the whole discussion as moot!

    (This is like half blue). 

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    3 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

    Those statements are inherently at odds. They should have absolutely "zero regard" for fan reaction?

    Brewers fans spending more per capita than ANY other fan base in MLB is one of the things that allows the Brewers in the miniscule market they've got, that is absolutely part of what's best for this organization. Look at the Guardians. I remember how they had this ridiculous sellout record goin...it was like 588 days(I don't remember, it's a long list). 
    I'm not saying you don't trade Burnes and Woodruff, but maintaining a good relationship with your fanbase is absolutely relevant and important. 

     

    I'm talking about deals like Grayson Rodriguez and Jackson Holliday or Bobby Miller, Vargas, Stone and Pepiot or Cartaya.  

    I'm not going after anyone's trade suggestions because I've suggested pretty much that Dodgers trade(it's actually my favorite in theory, a 1B prospect and then 3 power righties who are MLB ready. One who could plug into the rotation and then 2 more who could also slide into the rotation or who could come in and throw 2-3-4 innings out of the pen. 

    I just think we're are probably expecting a little bit too much back. Sure, we're in the sweet spot in theory. Though maybe you run into a team like Seattle that's desperate for a playoff run for their fanbase(Baltimore) or the LAA start out, they get hot this year and they're a pitcher away from contending...and they're willing to pay more to get that ace. 

    I also think we SHOULD expect a kings ransom because Burnes is so valuable. 

    Juan Soto says hi! 
    I'm thinking he slipped your mind...or maybe you disagree? Not really important as the larger point is that Burnes has immense value. 

    Walker Buehler is an example of this if you throw in injury with regression. Buehler was in a class right with Burnes just last year. 6.6 WAR vs 5.6. Now I saw someone propose a trade of Adames and Burnes that included Buehler and someone said there was "no point" in adding Buehler. While I don't agree with that, it shows how quickly a player can lose value.

    That said, if Burnes stays healthy, I'm not sure you can quantify how much value he loses. I don't know if it's 50% because he's got 50% less service time....why? Because...as pointed out, the game isn't played on paper. Teams get desperate. Again, just the two teams I mentioned...or maybe the Twins who've been getting more and more aggressive. The Jays might be a team that's got this dominant lineup but lacking an ace. 

     

    The point I'm making is that I understand both sides of this. Part of me wants to trade Burnes now and I'd be more than happy to get back....4 pitchers with elite stuff. Try and identify the next Steven Strider(Which may be someone like Bobby Miller) and a couple other elite arms. But;

    This isn't true if it gets the Brewer to the World Series or wins them a World Series. I don't think there is a significant difference in trade value from trading him this winter vs this deadline, so maybe see how things play out. Lets say...hypothetically, Frelick/Turang looks like a .280.360/.420 type hitter with elite defense, maybe Yelich comes back and he gets hot and spends the off-seasons working on his core, his back, he gets a little bit of that bat speed back and he hads some loft to the ball again(his exit velo(90%) and hard hit rate(98%) have both been exceptional, just mostly on the ground). 

    Maybe Uribe becomes a Emanuel Clase, Peralta gets back to his 2021 status, it clicks for Ashby and HE becomes a legitimate #2/3 pitcher. Lauer throws 180IP and does so at a high level, Houser stays healthy. Adames doesn't have the abnormally low BABIP and he retains the power without the fluke, career low BA/OBP. 



    I don't disagree with anyone in this thread and this is a case where no matter what we do(unlike with the Packers today) I'll understand whatever they move and the rationale for it. But it's just a bit more complicated and nuanced, and we should look at it from other teams perspectives. 

    If you're Texas, do you really want to give up Jung, Carter, Lieter and Foscue?

     

    It's gonna be a very difficult decision and you're gonna piss of fans and you're going take a risk either way. 

     

    Lets just extend him and render the whole discussion as moot!

    (This is like half blue). 

    Yeah. Sorry Juan Soto slipped my mind lol

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    8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    Yeah. Sorry Juan Soto slipped my mind lol

    He actually slipped mine as well. I thought Devers was part of the '25 FA class and I was going to say he MAY have more value...and then when I went to look at that class, no Devers(24) but Soto.

     

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    6 hours ago, UpandIn said:

    Those statements are inherently at odds. They should have absolutely "zero regard" for fan reaction?

    Brewers fans spending more per capita than ANY other fan base in MLB is one of the things that allows the Brewers in the miniscule market they've got to spend as much as they do(cheap as you may believe Attnasio to believe, look at the Pirates, the Os, the Guardians, the As...all the other teams in similar markets), that is absolutely part of what's best for this organization. Look at the Guardians. I remember how they had this ridiculous sellout record goin...it was like 588 days(I don't remember, it's a long list). They've really hurt their relationship with their fan base. Some of that may just be fans complacent with 90 win seasons and some of the luster having worn off on that, but they also don't develop connections with the players as they once did. 
    I'm not saying you don't trade Burnes and Woodruff, but maintaining a good relationship with your fanbase is absolutely relevant and important. 

     

    I'm talking about deals like Grayson Rodriguez and Jackson Holliday or Bobby Miller, Vargas, Stone and Pepiot or Cartaya.  

    I'm not going after anyone's trade suggestions because I've suggested pretty much that Dodgers trade(it's actually my favorite in theory, a 1B prospect and then 3 power righties who are MLB ready. One who could plug into the rotation and then 2 more who could also slide into the rotation or who could come in and throw 2-3-4 innings out of the pen. 

    I just think we're are probably expecting a little bit too much back. Sure, we're in the sweet spot in theory. Though maybe you run into a team like Seattle that's desperate for a playoff run for their fanbase(Baltimore) or the LAA start out, they get hot this year and they're a pitcher away from contending...and they're willing to pay more to get that ace. 

    I also think we SHOULD expect a kings ransom because Burnes is so valuable. 

    Juan Soto says hi! 
    I'm thinking he slipped your mind...or maybe you disagree? Not really important as the larger point is that Burnes has immense value. 

    Walker Buehler is an example of this if you throw in injury with regression. Buehler was in a class right with Burnes just last year. 6.6 WAR vs 5.6. Now I saw someone propose a trade of Adames and Burnes that included Buehler and someone said there was "no point" in adding Buehler. While I don't agree with that, it shows how quickly a player can lose value.

    That said, if Burnes stays healthy, I'm not sure you can quantify how much value he loses. I don't know if it's 50% because he's got 50% less service time....why? Because...as pointed out, the game isn't played on paper. Teams get desperate. Again, just the two teams I mentioned...or maybe the Twins who've been getting more and more aggressive. The Jays might be a team that's got this dominant lineup but lacking an ace. 

     

    The point I'm making is that I understand both sides of this. Part of me wants to trade Burnes now and I'd be more than happy to get back....4 pitchers with elite stuff. Try and identify the next Steven Strider(Which may be someone like Bobby Miller) and a couple other elite arms. But;

    This isn't true if it gets the Brewer to the World Series or wins them a World Series. I don't think there is a significant difference in trade value from trading him this winter vs this deadline, so maybe see how things play out. Lets say...hypothetically, Frelick/Turang looks like a .280.360/.420 type hitter with elite defense, maybe Yelich comes back and he gets hot and spends the off-seasons working on his core, his back, he gets a little bit of that bat speed back and he hads some loft to the ball again(his exit velo(90%) and hard hit rate(98%) have both been exceptional, just mostly on the ground). 

    Maybe Uribe becomes a Emanuel Clase, Peralta gets back to his 2021 status, it clicks for Ashby and HE becomes a legitimate #2/3 pitcher. Lauer throws 180IP and does so at a high level, Houser stays healthy. Adames doesn't have the abnormally low BABIP and he retains the power without the fluke, career low BA/OBP. 



    I don't disagree with anyone in this thread and this is a case where no matter what we do(unlike with the Packers today) I'll understand whatever they move and the rationale for it. But it's just a bit more complicated and nuanced, and we should look at it from other teams perspectives. 

    If you're Texas, do you really want to give up Jung, Carter, Lieter and Foscue?

     

    It's gonna be a very difficult decision and you're gonna piss of fans and you're going take a risk either way. 

     

    Lets just extend him and render the whole discussion as moot!

    (This is like half blue). 

    So what’s the alternative? Hold Burnes another year when you know it hurts the future of the team just so it doesn’t piss-off some casual fans?

    And I said a realistic trade return this offseason for Burnes would be 1 top 25, 1 top 50 and 1 top 100, not Cartaya, Miller and Stone, which the Dodgers likely won’t do, or 4 pitchers with elite stuff.

     

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    1 hour ago, SF70 said:

    So what’s the alternative? Hold Burnes another year when you know it hurts the future of the team just so it doesn’t piss-off some casual fans?

    And I said a realistic trade return this offseason for Burnes would be 1 top 25, 1 top 50 and 1 top 100, not Cartaya, Miller and Stone, which the Dodgers likely won’t do, or 4 pitchers with elite stuff.

     

    Did I NOT already answer all of these questeions?

    Ignoring how you've reworded this in an obviously sarcastic tone ...you said

    Quote

    They should have absolutely "zero regard" for fan reaction?

    To whit I responded;

     

    Quote

     

    Those statements are inherently at odds[That they should do what's best for the team while ignoring the fan base]. They should have absolutely "zero regard" for fan reaction?

    Brewers fans spending more per capita than ANY other fan base in MLB is one of the things that allows the Brewers in the miniscule market they've got to spend as much as they do(cheap as you may believe Attnasio to believe, look at the Pirates, the Os, the Guardians, the As...all the other teams in similar markets), that is absolutely part of what's best for this organization. Look at the Guardians. I remember how they had this ridiculous sellout record goin...it was like 588 days(I don't remember, it's a long list). They've really hurt their relationship with their fan base. Some of that may just be fans complacent with 90 win seasons and some of the luster having worn off on that, but they also don't develop connections with the players as they once did. 
    I'm not saying you don't trade Burnes and Woodruff, but maintaining a good relationship with your fanbase is absolutely relevant and important. 

     

    You also said;

    Quote

    That’s also a return more valuable to this team at this time than keeping Burnes for this coming season.


     

    Quote

     

    Again, I replied with;

    This isn't true if it gets the Brewer to the World Series or wins them a World Series. I also don't think there is a significant difference in trade value from trading him this winter vs this deadline, so maybe see how things play out.

     

     

     

     

    Last sentence;

    Quote

    And I said a realistic trade return this offseason for Burnes would be 1 top 25, 1 top 50 and 1 top 100, not Cartaya, Miller and Stone, which the Dodgers likely won’t do, or 4 pitchers with elite stuff.

    You realize that this conversation didn't start with you, right? I made a comment saying I think SOME of the trade suggestions may be a little overly ambitious on our behalf, comparing it to what SOME fans expected for Hader(two top 15 prospects for example). I listed a couple and you said that's exactly what they should get. 

    But just for clarity real quick, Cartaya(8), Miller(26), Stone(77). 

    That seems reasonably inline with your 1-25(#8), 1-50(#26), 50-100(#77). In fact...it's quite literally that. I agree, the Dodgers likely won't do that...which is how this conversation started. 


    Now, YOU said that would be a fair return, but you weren't the person this comment was initially directed to. I made a general statement;

    Quote

     

    Yeah, I'm starting to wonder if maybe we're doing what some fans did with Hader. 

    I got into a Twitter debate with a fan at the start of this season in which he stated we'd get "at least 4 top 100 prospects" back for Hader. 

    I don't think 4 top 100 or 150 prospects is expecting too much for Burnes, but a lot of us are naturally just looking at teams who appear to be likely invested in getting an ace and picking 3 or 4 of their top 5-10 prospects. A team would have to be pretty desperate. And that may well happen, but if it doesn't, we should just hold onto them. 

     

    And then you responded with;

    Quote

    But that’s the type of return this team would likely get if they shopped Burnes this offseason, especially from a team like the Dodgers who would have a leg-up with extending Burnes, imo.

     

    So I'm not sure what the debate is here, but I feel like I address all these statements. 

    The idea that it'd be just "casual fans," who...-by the way, are the lifeblood of an MLB franchise as it takes more than a small pct of the fan base in a market as small as Milwaukee's to help generate the revenue that would allow them to push the payroll into the 140+ range- Who'd be upset with the Brewers trading Burnes...I disagree with that. I think it's a bit of an arrogant statement calling fans who don't agree with you "casual" fans.

     

    It's also, as I've said when I pointed out how the Cleveland Guardians fan base has gone from a fanbase that went from selling out every game over a 7 year period to now being 25th, ahead of only KC, Pitt, Tampa, Miami and Oakland...this depsite the fact that they won 90 games and made the playoffs with the youngest core in MLB and and having a nice stadium...as opposed to Oakland and Tampa who have terrible stadiums. And they were the only ahead of Tampa Bay in attendance and over 1.1M behind Philly in attendance, the next lowest rated team.

     

    So yes, I'd say you should PROBABLY give at least some thought to those "casual" fan base. What I DIDN'T say was that you shouldn't trade Burnes. Just that it should be taken into consideration whereas you said;

    Quote

    Paper is all that should matter. Arnold & co need to do what’s best for the organization with absolutely zero regard for potential fan reaction.

    This-This is the part I disagreed with and VERY clearly said;

    Quote

    I'm not saying you don't trade Burnes and Woodruff, but maintaining a good relationship with your fanbase is absolutely relevant and important. 

     

    I feel like I made that point when I cited the Brewers fanbase outspending every other fan base in MLB per capita and again, object to the idea that the fans who'd be upset are "casuals."

    But again, NO, I did not say;

    Quote

    Hold Burnes another year when you know it hurts the future of the team just so it doesn’t piss-off some casual fans?

    I addressed this from EVERY angle and STILL never said you don't trade Burnes and I rejected the "it hurts the future of the team just so it doesn't piss off some "casual fans." 

     

    Tell me what well run business ANYWHERE becomes one without a completely disregard for a teams paying customers?

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    19 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

    Did I NOT already answer all of these questeions?

    Ignoring how you've reworded this in an obviously sarcastic tone ...you said

    To whit I responded;

     

    You also said;


     

     

    Last sentence;

    You realize that this conversation didn't start with you, right? I made a comment saying I think SOME of the trade suggestions may be a little overly ambitious on our behalf, comparing it to what SOME fans expected for Hader(two top 15 prospects for example). I listed a couple and you said that's exactly what they should get. 

    But just for clarity real quick, Cartaya(8), Miller(26), Stone(77). 

    That seems reasonably inline with your 1-25(#8), 1-50(#26), 50-100(#77). In fact...it's quite literally that. I agree, the Dodgers likely won't do that...which is how this conversation started. 


    Now, YOU said that would be a fair return, but you weren't the person this comment was initially directed to. I made a general statement;

    And then you responded with;

     

    So I'm not sure what the debate is here, but I feel like I address all these statements. 

    The idea that it'd be just "casual fans," who...-by the way, are the lifeblood of an MLB franchise as it takes more than a small pct of the fan base in a market as small as Milwaukee's to help generate the revenue that would allow them to push the payroll into the 140+ range- Who'd be upset with the Brewers trading Burnes...I disagree with that. I think it's a bit of an arrogant statement calling fans who don't agree with you "casual" fans.

     

    It's also, as I've said when I pointed out how the Cleveland Guardians fan base has gone from a fanbase that went from selling out every game over a 7 year period to now being 25th, ahead of only KC, Pitt, Tampa, Miami and Oakland...this depsite the fact that they won 90 games and made the playoffs with the youngest core in MLB and and having a nice stadium...as opposed to Oakland and Tampa who have terrible stadiums. And they were the only ahead of Tampa Bay in attendance and over 1.1M behind Philly in attendance, the next lowest rated team.

     

    So yes, I'd say you should PROBABLY give at least some thought to those "casual" fan base. What I DIDN'T say was that you shouldn't trade Burnes. Just that it should be taken into consideration whereas you said;

    This-This is the part I disagreed with and VERY clearly said;

     

    I feel like I made that point when I cited the Brewers fanbase outspending every other fan base in MLB per capita and again, object to the idea that the fans who'd be upset are "casuals."

    But again, NO, I did not say;

    I addressed this from EVERY angle and STILL never said you don't trade Burnes and I rejected the "it hurts the future of the team just so it doesn't piss off some "casual fans." 

     

    Tell me what well run business ANYWHERE becomes one without a completely disregard for a teams paying customers?

    I should have been more specific in my trade return package for Burnes. I should have stated top 10-25 prospect, which eliminates a Cartaya, my mistake.

    And your right, after re-reading your post you did question some of the return packages as being too much, which I agree with, again my mistake.

    And while I understand your take on not alienating the fan-base, I’m of the belief that when the fans see the athletes this organization will be installing throughout the lineup the next couple of years, and the excitement of watching players running wild both in the field and on the bases, they’ll come to AmFam in droves for the foreseeable future.

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    12 hours ago, SF70 said:

    A top 3 SP in the game shopped to the highest bidder will return the talent needed to not just extend the “bites at the apple” contention strategy, but improve the overall talent level of this organization beyond anything we’d get by holding Burnes for another year.

    Realistically Burnes returns — 1 top 25, 1 top 50, 1 top 100. With at least 2 of them big-league ready. That’s a fair return. That’s also a return more valuable to this team at this time than keeping Burnes for this coming season.

    Or it totally destroys any chance of biting an apple for 2+ years. It is also more likely those prospects all fail to be anything meaningful in the grand scheme and don't really help a ton in biting apples in the future. 

    If this was 2015 this would be a total no brainer...it isn't in 2022. Not saying they should hold onto him, but there are many more paths they could take than trading him. If they got a massive offer...like includes a borderline Top 10 prospect in baseball plus a lot more, I would send him on his way. If all we are getting offered is a prospect barely sitting in the Top 50 to headline the trade...I might just try to roll the dice one more year. 

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    I think both the Rays and Guardians have proven you can trade frontline pitching and still be highly competitive.  It's certainly a gamble whenever you're trading for prospects, but I have confidence in our scouting department.

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    3 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

    I think both the Rays and Guardians have proven you can trade frontline pitching and still be highly competitive.  It's certainly a gamble whenever you're trading for prospects, but I have confidence in our scouting department.

    Me too, which is why I’m really hoping Arnold tries to mimic Cleveland with regards to the trade-off of the non-extentionables for young controllable talent.

    Now that we have a proven pipeline of amateur talent procurement, a proven PDS, and what is looking like, at least with early returns being positive, an improving position player & hitting development system, the trading-off of our non-extensionables is the missing piece to perpetual contention.

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    21 minutes ago, SF70 said:

    Me too, which is why I’m really hoping Arnold tries to mimic Cleveland with regards to the trade-off of the non-extentionables for young controllable talent.

    Now that we have a proven pipeline of amateur talent procurement, a proven PDS, and what is looking like, at least with early returns being positive, an improving position player & hitting development system, the trading-off of our non-extensionables is the missing piece to perpetual contention.

    I think we should wait until the organization has actually produced an everyday position player worth a lick, let alone an all-star, before labeling the development system "improved" and talking about "perpetual contention" upon trading the most dominant starting pitcher in franchise history. Can we really be certain that a guy such as Garrett Mitchell won't turn into the next Hiura/Brett Phillips at the plate with a 41% K rate, SSA notwithstanding? 

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