Is It Time to Consider Another Freddy Peralta Extension?

Although the Winter Meetings just passed and Christmas is still over a week off, several major starting pitchers have already inked new deals. Blake Snell broke the ice by signing a five-year, $182-million deal with the Dodgers, only to be outdone by Max Fried signing an eight-year, $218-million contract with the Yankees. While these players were far outside the financial reach of the Brewers, other free agents like Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, and Frankie Montas were signed for more reasonable amounts that could’ve fit into Milwaukee’s budget (with a few contortions). To make matters worse, Garrett Crochet, a trade target the Brewers had been eyeing, also found a new home with the Boston Red Sox, leaving the Crew with few feasible options. They might have to roll into 2025 with (more or less) the rotation they already project to have.

Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta has two $8-million team options, one of which has already been picked up for 2025. Assuming the team also exercises the 2026 option, he would hit free agency by age 30, the same age as Max Fried. He wouldn’t net as much as Fried, but it's clear that his market value will be in nine figures if he gets to that point with his arm intact. So, since the Devin Williams trade added long-term help to the infield but only a one-year patch to the rotation, could locking down Peralta for a second time be top of mind?

The 2024 campaign was Peralta's first as the ace of the team. In the absence of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, he was shoved into the spotlight and forced to lead a rotation ravaged by injury. He performed admirably, posting a 3.68 ERA with 10.4 K/9 over 173 ⅔ innings. This gave him 2.6 rWAR, the second-best year of his career behind his exceptional 2021 campaign. There was a lot to like about his profile, including top-quartile whiff and strikeout rates. In addition to having a good four-seam fastball (as usual), his changeup became remarkably efficient this year, compensating for a reduction in effectiveness from his curveball. He threw his changeup 17.5% of the time (highest in his career), while cutting his curveball usage down to 7.1% (lowest in his career).

Unfortunately, all the good came with much of the usual bad. His WHIP of 1.22 and 9.2 H/9 were higher than any other full seasons of his career. He also allowed 1.3 HR/9 and a walk rate of 9.4%, dragging his FIP to 4.16 despite the good strikeout rates. He seemed to struggle with expanding the zone effectively, and gave up a considerable amount of hard contact as a result. His chase rate of 28.0% was slightly below the league average, while his barrel and ground-ball rates were near the bottom quartile of qualified pitchers. This means that for an ace, hitters spat on his offerings outside of the zone—while hitting his strikes hard and in the air, a recipe that rarely leads to long-term success.

For the Brewers to make an offer tempting enough to delay his free agency again, there are likely a few criteria they’d have to satisfy. First, the deal would have to be done before the 2026 season, nullifying the team-friendly $8 million salary they originally agreed to. Second, despite his flaws, he is likely hoping for a free-agent deal in the $100-150 million range, setting that as the price Milwaukee would have to beat (less some discount, to account for the risk the Brewers would take and Peralta would avoid by signing before the necessary decision point). Third, it would probably have to end early enough for him to sign another short-term deal, or long enough for it to set him up for the rest of his career.

The sweet spot here might be an opt-out. A deal that gives him a significant raise for 2026 in exchange for two extra years of team control would be workable for the Brewers. Peralta would prefer a true megadeal, but might take a much lighter version in exchange for the opportunity to hit the market again after 2028 if he so chose. A seven-year deal worth $170 million (with an opt-out after three years and $70 million) could make sense. Such a deal could include deferrals in the highest-paid seasons of the deal (likely 2028-31) and/or a mutual option for 2033 with a buyout involved, to push some of the payments out to the middle of next decade. The Brewers would get an extra two years of team control over Peralta (at a minimum), and Peralta would get plenty of compensation for giving up the chance to make $50 million more by taking himself all the way to free agency.

But is this even something the Brewers would/should do? On one hand, it’s high time that the front office looks into paying to retain an ace. They let Burnes walk, and haven’t made a huge, market-rate commitment to anyone since Christian Yelich. For the past several years, the team’s pitching has been a major point of strength, allowing them to compete with the bigger spending teams through more clever scouting and development. Extending a known arm would theoretically bring stability to the best part of the organization.

On the other hand, Peralta arguably isn’t the guy to invest in. His struggles with consistency and penchant for alternating between excellent and horrid stretches on the mound don’t help his case for a long-term commitment. If Milwaukee does want to extend a pitcher, maybe it would make more sense to wait and see how Woodruff bounces back from the injury that pulverized his 2024 campaign.

Simply put, the known costs seem too high to receive an unknown upside. Will Peralta continue to be a starter with great stuff and rediscover what made him great three years ago, or will he slowly but surely fall victim to his current shortcomings? It’s hard to say, and for a front office as shrewd as the Brewers’, it’s probably more risk than reward.