Is Tyler Black Capable of More Power? The Data Say Yes

For hitters with a strong defensive skillset, like a Copper Pratt, recording a 114 WRC+ over a full season in Triple A would be a fast track to some major-league time. Unfortunately, when you struggle to play even first base, that doesn't quite cut the mustard. Tyler Black's long-term defensive home is likely in the outfield—more specifically, in left field—which requires a certain level of offensive production. Depending on how the Brewers use Sal Frelick this season (and of course the injury concerns that will perennially surround Garrett Mitchell and Christian Yelich), Black may find some playing time there, but in order to stay in the big leagues as a corner man, he'll have to unlock more power.

In an offense-friendly environment, with a small strike zone due to the ABS system, Black's slugging mark of .428 last year in Nashville doesn't stand out from the crowd. He can be passive at the plate for someone with such strong pitch recognition, and his current profile is that of someone trying to grind their way on base rather than do damage. The Brewers have a lot of hitters in this style already, and it gives his offensive production a high floor, but limits the ceiling. There's a strong possibility that his slugging rate will dip below .400 against major-league pitching.

Assuming his swing is what it is at this point, and the exit velocities aren't going to spike dramatically, there is still a route to more power for him—two routes, in fact. The first is his swing decisions:

The graphics above, from Thomas Nestico, aren't entirely aligned, given one is measured over plate appearances while the other is per pitch faced. That being said, the timelines should be roughly similar, so if I superimpose the two graphics over one another, an interesting trend emerges. The more Black chased, the higher his xwOBA appears to be (xwOBA attempts to measure the expected offensive contributions a player makes per plate appearance, based on their contact rates and the quality of their batted balls). Arguably, then, a slightly more swing-happy Tyler Black can provide a stronger offensive contribution than the passive version.

Now, this can be broken down a little into specific scenarios. Being more swing-happy in 0-2 counts is never a great position to be in, but Black's bat control allows him to make solid contact and foul off pitches even when he does chase. The art of pitching is to make a pitch look hittable out of the hand, only to move into a less desirable location, and perhaps Black can afford to be more aggressive when he sees a pitch that looks good, rather than consistently trying to work the count in his favor.

The other avenue is his pull side power, and more specifically, pulling fly balls in the air. Again, see the graphic below from Nestico:

It sums up Black's profile nicely, with great plate discipline and contact skills and low exit velocities. As we've seen of late, even low exit velocities can produce solid in-game power by pulling fly balls. The shorter fences, and the mechanics of a swing, make this a viable method for low-EV hitters to get the ball out of the park, and Black is no different in that regard. 

Twelve of Black's 14 home runs in 2024 came to the pull side. He is currently a player who hits to all fields, but if he can increase that pull rate to something more in the 80th percentile and meld it with his strong launch angles, he may be able to reach that 15-20 home run range that should make him an everyday big-league player.

Black doesn't need to hit 30 home runs a season. He has the ability to get on base at a strong clip and be an absolute menace on the basepath; he stole 55 bases in 2023. His speed will allow him to leg out doubles and support that slugging number, so sitting in the 15-20 home run range as an average left fielder would make him a valuable regular for almost any team. Currently, though, he projects to hit only about 10 home runs based on the exit velocities above. That won't be enough from left field.

Do you think Tyler Black has more power to unlock in 2025? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!