A Pair of Fastball Adjustments Can Help Joel Payamps Build on His Breakout Season

When news broke that Devin Williams would miss at least the first two or three months of the season due to stress fractures in his back, the Brewers immediately emphasized the importance of a next-man-up mentality in the bullpen.

Several arms in the relief unit have stuff suited for high-leverage work, including triple-digit flamethrowers Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill. However, the most experienced in pressure situations is the reliever who worked the second-most innings out of the Brewers’ bullpen last year (behind Bryse Wilson) and placed second in fWAR behind Williams as his primary setup man.

In 70 ⅓ innings, Joel Payamps posted a 2.55 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and 79 DRA-, with solid strikeout (26.8%) and ground ball (45.9%) rates. His 3.0 Win Probability Added was the second-highest in the bullpen and double that of third-place finisher Hoby Milner (1.5).

An improved slider was responsible for much of that success. Before coming to Milwaukee, Payamps’s breaking ball was more of a slurve that yielded middling results, including a .318 opponent wOBA and -2 run value in 2022. The Brewers helped him fashion it into more of a sweeper, shaving three inches of vertical drop on average from the pitch while adding an inch and a half of lateral movement.

Those changes are illustrated by the graphs below. Notice how the spread shifts from 2022 to 2023.

The adjustment paid off. Payamps’s sweeping slider held opponents to a .243 wOBA and had a +5 run value. He missed more barrels with it, to the tune of an increased whiff rate (23.2% to 28.6%) and a lower average exit velocity (88.2 to 86.3 mph).

Payamps’s slider will continue to be his bread and butter as he strives for a successful follow-up to his breakout season. How he utilizes his two fastballs in conjunction with the breaking ball could be the difference between regressing from his 2023 campaign and sustaining it.

The Brewers, as they’ve done with several pitchers in recent years, put Payamps on a plan of throwing primarily sinkers to same-handed batters and four-seam fastballs to opposite-handed opponents. That meant pounding right-handers inside with sinkers and attacking left-handers with elevated four-seamers.

Nearly two-thirds of Payamps’s fastballs to right-handers were sinkers, and 78.4% of his heaters to left-handers were four-seamers. That breakdown was largely effective for him, but Payamps can level up his overall performance by tweaking how he uses those two fastballs.

His sinker is more of a running two-seamer than a heavy, downward mover. Whereas diving sinkers average around 0 inches of induced vertical break (IVB), Payamps’s averaged 8.1 inches last year. That has implications for where in the zone the pitch is most effective.

As most pitchers do with sinkers, Payamps focused on pounding right-handers down and in to generate ground balls. However, that’s not the most effective location for it. Because Payamps’s two-seamer lacks sink, it’s not conducive to rollover ground balls. Instead, it yields soft ground balls by jamming opponents.

Right-handers can go down and get Payamps’s two-seamer at the bottom of the zone and dump it into the outfield for base hits. It actually plays best at belt height, where the pitch looks like a juicy meatball until it tails in on hitters. The running action steers away from the path of the barrel and produces near-automatic jam-shot grounders. Look at last year’s batting averages and launch angles yielded on right-on-right two-seamers by location.

Instead of using it to get underneath barrels, Payamps’s top priority when throwing the two-seamer should be to get as close as he can to the handle of the bat. That means focusing on the black of the plate to his arm side, rather than the bottom third of the zone.

One could also argue that Payamps should throw fewer two-seamers, in general. While his strikeout rate surged dramatically last year, Payamps’s whiff rate did not follow to the same extent. Whereas the former placed him in the 75th percentile of pitchers, the latter was in the 57th percentile. Because Payamps generates few chases outside the strike zone, generating more in-zone whiffs will be necessary for maintaining his strikeout gains.

The best way to do that is by throwing more four-seamers to righties. Payamps doesn’t generate elite backspin or ride on his fastball, but its high total spin (2,485 rpm) and his low-three-quarters arm slot make it highly effective up in the zone. Payamps was in the 30th percentile for IVB on four-seamers, but the 81st for vertical approach angle.

Payamps’s four-seamer has consistently generated whiffs throughout his career, including a career-best 38.3% whiff rate last season. It stifled opponents to a .178 wOBA, and its +15 run value was by far the highest of any pitch in Payamps’s arsenal.

That effectiveness extended to the times he broke it out against right-handers. They whiffed on 46.3% of swings against the four-seamer while batting .125 against it. Despite that success, Payamps threw it just 16.2% of the time to right-handers.

Pitch types do not exist in a vacuum. Payamps’s two-seamer is still his best fastball against righties because it better complements the sweeping shape of his slider down in the zone. It’s also a far better pitch for generating weak contact on the ground. However, a more balanced mix of fastballs could serve him well. More specifically, Payamps should be willing to lean on the four-seamer in situations that demand a strikeout of a right-handed batter.

Payamps will reprise his high-leverage role when the regular season begins on Thursday. With Williams out, his presence at the back end of the bullpen is even more crucial. Some minor tweaks to how he utilizes his fastballs can help him answer the call.