Just How Good Was Freddy Peralta Against The Mets On Opening Day?

There were plenty of concerns coming into opening day with Freddy Peralta leading the Brewers rotation, perhaps justifiable. The season is long, but he demonstrated why the Brewers ' decision-makers have such faith in him on Friday afternoon. Some early struggles when ahead in the count allowed the Mets back into the at-bats with some wayward off-speed stuff, and Starling Marte punished an inner half 3-2 pitch. Following the second inning, however, was pure filth, retiring 13 hitters in a row as a large result of that magnificent fastball.

The Fastball Metrics
Peralta regularly used his four-seam fastball, so it played a big part in his success. It accounted for 52 of his 92 pitches on Friday, but it’s tough to move away from something that was putting up some of the gaudiest pitching metrics I’ve seen on a four-seamer. Over his six innings, here are a few statistics showing just how unhittable that fastball was:

• -3.7° Vertical Approach Angle (Led the league in 2023 at -3.88°. No other pitcher was above -4°)
• 18.7” Induced Vertical Break (IVB) (2023 average for Peralta was 15.2”; only three pitchers in 2023 averaged more than 18.7”)

Between these two metrics, Freddy’s fastball will have created a true rising effect, causing swing and miss after swing and miss of hitters getting underneath the ball.

A prime example is the above from Pitching Ninja. Peralta’s seventh strikeout came on a low four-seamer that froze Baty with its vertical carry, and then the high fastball to Harrison Bader stayed on a plane that he couldn’t get close to. 

One other point of note was how much horizontal movement Freddy Peralta was getting. It’s quite rare to see high IVB and Horizontal break numbers on the same pitch, however Peralta’s 8.5” of break would have placed him 12th ahead of Gerrit Cole last season, and almost two inches of run more than he averaged in 2023.

In fact, Gerrit Cole of 2023 may be the most apt comparison for just how good Freddy’s four-seam was on opening day per the underlying numbers, and he still paled in comparison:

Cole - 17,5" IVB, 8.4" HB, 4.53° VAA, 96.7 mph average effective velocity
Peralta - 18.7" IVB, 8.5" HB, -3.72° VAA, 95.1mph average effective velocity

Where Can He Improve?
Peralta’s slider was often uncompetitive in the earlier innings, showing at times just how effective it can be alongside how wild it can be. A big difference between the new ace’s first and second-half results last year was how he narrowed down on the uncompetitive pitches when ahead in the count, but against the Mets, six of his 21 sliders were “uncompetitive” pitches and allowed their hitters back into counts when they should have been put away. The home run to Starling Marte was one of these occasions, going from an 0-2 to a 3-2 count off the back of poor breaking pitches before the big hit came, and it’s something Peralta will need to tighten up on moving forwards.The strong defense behind him did also play a part in his one-hit performance, with Jackson Chourio making right field look markedly simpler than Marte did amongst the sunshine and heavy winds.

All that being said, this was a tone setting performance from Freddy Peralta. And the best may still be to come.