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Last winter, the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins to a two-year, $34-million deal with a mutual option for the 2026 season. WIth a career .242/.353/.492 slash line, Hoskins was expected to be a solid bat in the lineup while manning first base. While he did crack 26 home runs, he didn't play quite to the level of his $17-million AAV. After he passed on his opt-out, the 2025 campaign is important for both him and the Brewers organization, as it will determine how good of a decision it was to bring him in.
What Went Wrong In 2024?
Let’s state the obvious: Before the 2023 season, Hoskins tore his ACL, keeping him out the entire year. The organization probably knew the chance of having a down year. Sure enough, it was quite a step down.
He ended the season with a .214 batting average. His 98 OPS+ and 100 wRC+ were the lowest numbers recorded in his career. The homers were nice, but his drop off from his career numbers is concerning.
Hoskins was actually going quite well early, though. By mid-May, he had an .814 OPS, along with eight home runs and 24 RBI. Then a hamstring strain in his right leg landed him on the injured list. Upon his return, he had a rough few summer months, dropping his batting average to as low as .206 at one point.
He'd recovered from that major injury, but the seemingly innocuous hamstring issue set him back for the balance of 2024. His bat speed went down; his average exit velocity went down. You name the stat, it probably dropped once Hoskins came back from that hamstring problem. Alas, his strikeout rate which was the highest it’s ever been, creeping up to 28.8%. That, along with his whiff rate (26.3%) and chase percentage (25.4%), are also heading in the wrong direction. Even worse, he went 0-for-9 against his nemeses the Mets in the Wild Card Series.
While it's only fair to offer Hoskins a mulligan on that campaign, he can't afford to have another year like it. The Brewers need him to turn things around, and if he wants to earn another free-agent payday after this, he needs that, too.
What Can Go Right In 2025?
The best thing for Hoskins is to just be available. While he did play a majority of the games last year, only 92 of them were at first base, as opposed to 37 of them at DH. Jake Bauers is back on a minor-league deal. Barring a late signing, Caleb Durbin or Tyler Black having a bad spring, or a severe injury, Hoskins will be the only pure first baseman on the team. Christian Yelich will likely take the bulk of the playing time at DH, thanks to the current depth in the outfield. Expect Hoskins to get more opportunities at first.
Now that Hoskins is familiar with the Milwaukee community and fan base (and now that he's a year further removed from that knee injury), he can be more comfortable and more productive. There are no more excuses.
As stated earlier, the power is always going to be there. We learned that last year. If he gets back to even his 2019 Phillies form (wherein he saw the ball better, struck out less often, and drove the ball in the air more), he would be a nice improvement on his last year. We aren't asking for an Aaron Judge-like season; we are just asking for better health and the better plate discipline he had in Philadelphia.
Hoskins went 12-41 (.293) in his last 14 regular-season games. He still can be a streaky hitter. He just has to stop chasing on the high outside pitches; he hasn’t found much success out there.
How Will This Impact The 2025 Brewers?
Should Hoskins find that success, he could become the reliable cleanup hitter the Brewers were hoping for when they signed him last January. Hoskins spent much of his time further down in the batting order in 2024, while Willy Adames became the power bat in the middle of things. With Adames gone, the Brewers are going to rely on speed and defensive players in even greater degree. We’ll likely see more Black, Durbin, and Oliver Dunn, among others, fighting for playing time.
A strong Hoskins is vital. Yelich, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio can all be strong 20-plus home run candidates. If everyone is on, this offense can still be a well-oiled machine. Still, it's Hoskins who could round out the heart of the lineup. Too many great bats and not enough positions on the field is a good problem to have.
Hoskins has the potential to hit 30 home runs every year. FanGraphs are projecting him to have a slightly better season than last year, but not to play at an All-Star level. While the Crew don’t necessarily need an All-Star, anywhere around Hoskins's projection could benefit the club’s playoff push.
Who knows? If Hoskins performs at a higher level, maybe he and the Brewers can come to an agreement to keep him around beyond this season. But that’s in 2026, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
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