Make-or-Break Players on the 2025 Milwaukee Brewers: Rhys Hoskins

[Ryan Pollak]

The Brewers' big external addition of the 2023-24 offseason didn't turn out well in Year One. After a rough first season, the worst of his career, can the Crew's slugging first baseman recapture his former glory?

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images / © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Last winter, the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins to a two-year, $34-million deal with a mutual option for the 2026 season. WIth a career .242/.353/.492 slash line, Hoskins was expected to be a solid bat in the lineup while manning first base. While he did crack 26 home runs, he didn't play quite to the level of his $17-million AAV. After he passed on his opt-out, the 2025 campaign is important for both him and the Brewers organization, as it will determine how good of a decision it was to bring him in. 

What Went Wrong In 2024?
Let’s state the obvious: Before the 2023 season, Hoskins tore his ACL, keeping him out the entire year. The organization probably knew the chance of having a down year. Sure enough, it was quite a step down.

He ended the season with a .214 batting average. His 98 OPS+ and 100 wRC+ were the lowest numbers recorded in his career. The homers were nice, but his drop off from his career numbers is concerning.

Hoskins was actually going quite well early, though. By mid-May, he had an .814 OPS, along with eight home runs and 24 RBI. Then a hamstring strain in his right leg landed him on the injured list. Upon his return, he had a rough few summer months, dropping his batting average to as low as .206 at one point.

He'd recovered from that major injury, but the seemingly innocuous hamstring issue set him back for the balance of 2024. His bat speed went down; his average exit velocity went down. You name the stat, it probably dropped once Hoskins came back from that hamstring problem. Alas, his strikeout rate which was the highest it’s ever been, creeping up to 28.8%. That, along with his whiff rate (26.3%) and chase percentage (25.4%), are also heading in the wrong direction. Even worse, he went 0-for-9 against his nemeses the Mets in the Wild Card Series.

While it's only fair to offer Hoskins a mulligan on that campaign, he can't afford to have another year like it. The Brewers need him to turn things around, and if he wants to earn another free-agent payday after this, he needs that, too.

What Can Go Right In 2025?
The best thing for Hoskins is to just be available. While he did play a majority of the games last year, only 92 of them were at first base, as opposed to 37 of them at DH. Jake Bauers is back on a minor-league deal. Barring a late signing, Caleb Durbin or Tyler Black having a bad spring, or a severe injury, Hoskins will be the only pure first baseman on the team. Christian Yelich will likely take the bulk of the playing time at DH, thanks to the current depth in the outfield. Expect Hoskins to get more opportunities at first.

Now that Hoskins is familiar with the Milwaukee community and fan base (and now that he's a year further removed from that knee injury), he can be more comfortable and more productive. There are no more excuses.

As stated earlier, the power is always going to be there. We learned that last year. If he gets back to even his 2019 Phillies form (wherein he saw the ball better, struck out less often, and drove the ball in the air more), he would be a nice improvement on his last year. We aren't asking for an Aaron Judge-like season; we are just asking for better health and the better plate discipline he had in Philadelphia.

Hoskins went 12-41 (.293) in his last 14 regular-season games. He still can be a streaky hitter. He just has to stop chasing on the high outside pitches; he hasn’t found much success out there.

How Will This Impact The 2025 Brewers?
Should Hoskins find that success, he could become the reliable cleanup hitter the Brewers were hoping for when they signed him last January. Hoskins spent much of his time further down in the batting order in 2024, while Willy Adames became the power bat in the middle of things. With Adames gone, the Brewers are going to rely on speed and defensive players in even greater degree. We’ll likely see more Black, Durbin, and Oliver Dunn, among others, fighting for playing time.

A strong Hoskins is vital. Yelich, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio can all be strong 20-plus home run candidates. If everyone is on, this offense can still be a well-oiled machine. Still, it's Hoskins who could round out the heart of the lineup. Too many great bats and not enough positions on the field is a good problem to have.

Hoskins has the potential to hit 30 home runs every year. FanGraphs are projecting him to have a slightly better season than last year, but not to play at an All-Star level. While the Crew don’t necessarily need an All-Star, anywhere around Hoskins's projection could benefit the club’s playoff push.

Who knows? If Hoskins performs at a higher level, maybe he and the Brewers can come to an agreement to keep him around beyond this season. But that’s in 2026, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

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[Brian]

I think and hope Hoskins will have a better year than last because I have never been a big fan of Tyler Black.  Lets hope Ernesto Martinez Jr. gives them both a run for there money.  I'll keep my fingers crossed. 😃 

[jesusoftheapes]

2 hours ago, Brian said:

I think and hope Hoskins will have a better year than last because I have never been a big fan of Tyler Black.  Lets hope Ernesto Martinez Jr. gives them both a run for there money.  I'll keep my fingers crossed. 😃 

What is your issue with Tyler Black?  I think the only problem with Tyler Black is that Tyler Black is not playing MLB ball and needs more reps in the Bigs.  Tyler Black is a good player who can become above average I believe.  He needs work without electronic eyes so he can learn that last 10% hitters learn above AAA.   

Tyler Black had a shockingly bad intro season with us last year.    I mean for a big prospect with juice we have not seen a major flop out of the rookies of the past 2 season.    Blacks 2024 would be seen as bad at the MLB level with very few chances to get right he hit okay.    He tooks strike he should have swung at several times but did make good contact on a handful as well. His first night went about as well as one could hope with parents calling his basehit cherry pop.     After that though it seemed he did something  in Murphy's eyes that rubbed him the wrong way. There was tension between Manager and player that you could feel whenever the topic of Tyler Black came up with Murphy in interviews.     

Tyler Black was not comfortable at all and it made him play tight and you could see it when he was up with the big league Brewers.  

If being better than Hoskins is the gauge for what makes Black valuable to the Brewers I think Tyler Black has a way higher ceiling than Hoskins.    I believe when he establishes himself in the Bigs you have a guy who can bat from .250-.280 every season and give you 25 ish homers on a normal year.   That would blow the career of Rhys Hoskins out of the water.       Hoskins is not known for being a very good defensive 1st base either and I do not think Black is any worse at 1st in ability than is Hoskins.    
I might even give the nod to Tyler in that regard.   Tyler Black is over spoken about as a bad defender.    I get why they say it in reporting but when I watch the guy play he looks like a rooster on a barn beam when he stands out there at 1st but I do not see horrible defense that is so bad he cannot play 1st well.  It is more of a look thing in my eyes.  He just stands around funny and holds his glove up like a weirdo on the bag.  It makes him look kinda Caveman but he makes it work for him .     

 

I too both wish and believe Hoskins will have a much better 2025 if healthy.  But to expect him to be any better than his career .240 AVE with 20-30 homers is probably a reach.    A good Hoskins season has him knocking clutch shots all season long but even when that happens his Average rarely climbs above .250 .   

If Tyler Black is let have at 1st base ( I do not believe Ownership saying he is on 3rd and that fixes the infield..He is not a 3rd. ) or at least the nights Hoskins DH as a constant player I have no issues believing Tyler can hit better than Hoskins and carry and really help this team keep points crossing home.      I like Tyler Black and with time I think fans will warm up to him.   

[Brian]

11 hours ago, jesusoftheapes said:

What is your issue with Tyler Black?  I think the only problem with Tyler Black is that Tyler Black is not playing MLB ball and needs more reps in the Bigs.  Tyler Black is a good player who can become above average I believe.  He needs work without electronic eyes so he can learn that last 10% hitters learn above AAA.   

Tyler Black had a shockingly bad intro season with us last year.    I mean for a big prospect with juice we have not seen a major flop out of the rookies of the past 2 season.    Blacks 2024 would be seen as bad at the MLB level with very few chances to get right he hit okay.    He tooks strike he should have swung at several times but did make good contact on a handful as well. His first night went about as well as one could hope with parents calling his basehit cherry pop.     After that though it seemed he did something  in Murphy's eyes that rubbed him the wrong way. There was tension between Manager and player that you could feel whenever the topic of Tyler Black came up with Murphy in interviews.     

Tyler Black was not comfortable at all and it made him play tight and you could see it when he was up with the big league Brewers.  

If being better than Hoskins is the gauge for what makes Black valuable to the Brewers I think Tyler Black has a way higher ceiling than Hoskins.    I believe when he establishes himself in the Bigs you have a guy who can bat from .250-.280 every season and give you 25 ish homers on a normal year.   That would blow the career of Rhys Hoskins out of the water.       Hoskins is not known for being a very good defensive 1st base either and I do not think Black is any worse at 1st in ability than is Hoskins.    
I might even give the nod to Tyler in that regard.   Tyler Black is over spoken about as a bad defender.    I get why they say it in reporting but when I watch the guy play he looks like a rooster on a barn beam when he stands out there at 1st but I do not see horrible defense that is so bad he cannot play 1st well.  It is more of a look thing in my eyes.  He just stands around funny and holds his glove up like a weirdo on the bag.  It makes him look kinda Caveman but he makes it work for him .     

 

I too both wish and believe Hoskins will have a much better 2025 if healthy.  But to expect him to be any better than his career .240 AVE with 20-30 homers is probably a reach.    A good Hoskins season has him knocking clutch shots all season long but even when that happens his Average rarely climbs above .250 .   

If Tyler Black is let have at 1st base ( I do not believe Ownership saying he is on 3rd and that fixes the infield..He is not a 3rd. ) or at least the nights Hoskins DH as a constant player I have no issues believing Tyler can hit better than Hoskins and carry and really help this team keep points crossing home.      I like Tyler Black and with time I think fans will warm up to him.   

Tyler Black is below the MLB average in: fielding, hitting average, hitting power with a below average arm.  But he is fast, I'll give him that.  A Joey Wiemer type player who will have spirts of "Wow that was pretty good" but then when all is said and done back up quality at best. Even his salary is only 40K over the league minimum and no one is making calls for him that I know of to snap him away from the Brewers. 

[Sugarrayray]

8 hours ago, Brian said:

Tyler Black is below the MLB average in: fielding, hitting average, hitting power with a below average arm.  But he is fast, I'll give him that.  A Joey Wiemer type player who will have spirts of "Wow that was pretty good" but then when all is said and done back up quality at best. Even his salary is only 40K over the league minimum and no one is making calls for him that I know of to snap him away from the Brewers. 

I am sorry, but Black could not be more dissimilar to Wiemer. Wiemer is a toolsy player with as bad of a hit tool as possible. Black’s hit tool is what has carried him as a top 100 prospect.

 

There is nothing to indicate Black is a below average hitter…??

[jesusoftheapes]

18 hours ago, Brian said:

Tyler Black is below the MLB average in: fielding, hitting average, hitting power with a below average arm.  But he is fast, I'll give him that.  A Joey Wiemer type player who will have spirts of "Wow that was pretty good" but then when all is said and done back up quality at best. Even his salary is only 40K over the league minimum and no one is making calls for him that I know of to snap him away from the Brewers. 

I really think you are overlooking Tyler Black over his time in AAA.  He is super boring.  He brings a .270-.280 hitter.    Rhys Hoskins is one of the most average players of all time.   He just made big hits when things mattered most to get his brand built.     

Black on the other hand has all the tools to be a really nice hitter .   I think he can be a 25-30 homer guy too.   He has a great eye at the plate and when that all clicks in the MLB he should be a overall better player than Hoskins and if he finds himself clutch in big moments the other ratios you used to dump on him will not mean very much. 

He is way better than you believe.  

[jesusoftheapes]

10 hours ago, Sugarrayray said:

I am sorry, but Black could not be more dissimilar to Wiemer. Wiemer is a toolsy player with as bad of a hit tool as possible. Black’s hit tool is what has carried him as a top 100 prospect.

 

There is nothing to indicate Black is a below average hitter…??

Agreed.  I am also not writing off that Joey could put his big boy pants on and become a very good MLB player within the next several seasons .  There is a ball player in that guy just itching to come out.   

Tyler Black however is miles ahead of anywhere Weimer was in development.   Weimer was a skilled mess .  Black is almost overly disciplined.      Whoever chose to put Weimer into the MLB when they did was a dice roll they really had to take that season.   That roster was desperate for hitters who could play outfield.     

Black held back more by lack of open positions to defend in the MLB.    

Do not let the people who are already stripping Black out of his uniform.    I think when he gets his real shot at this game he will be a success.    I think that is what all the waiting has been about with the guy.    

[jesusoftheapes]

18 hours ago, Brian said:

Tyler Black is below the MLB average in: fielding, hitting average, hitting power with a below average arm.  But he is fast, I'll give him that.  A Joey Wiemer type player who will have spirts of "Wow that was pretty good" but then when all is said and done back up quality at best. Even his salary is only 40K over the league minimum and no one is making calls for him that I know of to snap him away from the Brewers. 

Man Joey Weimer?  They are not alike. I really want you to know that without a shadow of a doubt.  I really have scouted Black at nauseum.   He is one of the Brewers prospects you can get a bunch of AAA at bats to see.     Tyler Black is NOT even remotely bad.    There is WOW in his bat.   There really is .  He has that Freddie Freeman like ability to hit pitches he has no business hitting and hitting them well .     YES! I just compared Tyler Black to Freddie Freeman and was completely serious.   

 Someone who has watched Black a lot out there can and should back me up on this one.     When Tyler Black is hot and on his game without distraction he is better than most batters in the entire MLB and can hit most types of pitchers including super heat throwers.          Tyler Black has a way of getting his barrel on inside pitches which is where I see him most like Freddie Freeman.  check out this video at the 2:08 mark and you will see a Freddie Freeman special .    His 2024 was not what he usually puts up but Tyler Black is the opposite of Joey Weimer.    They are not comparable.    

 

[Brian]

2 hours ago, jesusoftheapes said:

Man Joey Weimer?  They are not alike. I really want you to know that without a shadow of a doubt.  I really have scouted Black at nauseum.   He is one of the Brewers prospects you can get a bunch of AAA at bats to see.     Tyler Black is NOT even remotely bad.    There is WOW in his bat.   There really is .  He has that Freddie Freeman like ability to hit pitches he has no business hitting and hitting them well .     YES! I just compared Tyler Black to Freddie Freeman and was completely serious.   

 Someone who has watched Black a lot out there can and should back me up on this one.     When Tyler Black is hot and on his game without distraction he is better than most batters in the entire MLB and can hit most types of pitchers including super heat throwers.          Tyler Black has a way of getting his barrel on inside pitches which is where I see him most like Freddie Freeman.  check out this video at the 2:08 mark and you will see a Freddie Freeman special .    His 2024 was not what he usually puts up but Tyler Black is the opposite of Joey Weimer.    They are not comparable.    

 

We will see but barrel on the ball like Freddie Freeman? Who next do we compare Tyler Black to Pete Rose?