Managing September with October in Mind, Young Brewers Have to Maintain Focus Without Overdoing It

The mental fortitude of the 2024 Brewers--to come in every day with the hustle, grind and mental acuity required for their brand of baseball--cannot be overstated. It requires a team-wide culture of trust that everyone is putting in the same hard yards, looking for one percent more in every situation. It’s fair to say Murphy has led by example in this regard, with aggressive bullpen moves and even occasional overuse of the bullpen. He's shown almost complete disregard for a game the following day.

In September, that has started to change, with one eye turning toward the playoffs. Colin Rea was pulled on Wednesday after just four innings of work. Freddy Peralta was pulled on Sunday with just 86 pitches in the middle of the fifth inning. Then you factor in extra playing time in big spots for the likes of Jake Bauers, Hoby Milner, the testing and assessment of Isaac Collins and Brewer Hicklen, and it all begins to seem like the focus has shifted ever-so-slightly from the "win today" mantra that has encapsulated so much of the Brewers' best baseball in 2024.

The offensive slump against the Rockies and Cardinals can happen to any baseball team, in a sport that can change on a knife edge based on batted-ball fortune and timing. That being said, there were a few signs that perhaps the Brewers were struggling to grind as they usually do. Only three times all year had the Brewers failed to register a walk in a game, but that has now happened twice in September--against a bullpen day for Cincinnati and the subpar Kyle Freeland of the Rockies.

The overall numbers for the team are slightly skewed as well, with their highest swinging-strike rate on the season and their highest chase rate and overall swing rate, to boot. For a team who have prided themselves on being selective and comfortable in deeper counts, they’ve shown signs of drifting away from that. Thanks to the lack of selectivity, they're also not producing as much hard contact of late. 

They have had some bad luck with batted balls in play, and that .181 Batting average on balls in play is likely to tick up, but some of that drop is earned from squaring up the ball less often than they managed for the rest of the season. It’s obvious they’ve struggled a little offensively, and I would have one theory behind this.

There is a psychiatric variation of the Pareto principle (known as the 80/20 rule) that observes how the brain will begin to lose focus in a task once you are around 80% complete, easing off as the task comes to the finishing line. You might notice this with simple tasks, such as cleaning the house, or at 4 pm on a work day when your mind begins to drift and lose focus. This Brewers team is incredibly young and inexperienced, with a number of their veteran leaders unable to take the field through injury. As a result, you could excuse the youth of Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Ortiz, Brice Turang, Tobias Myers and others in their first two seasons for losing a little bit of that focus, with the Brewers organization also beginning to plan for the playoffs. We saw a hint of it coming into the All-Star break after a grueling first half, with the Brewers slumping hard against struggling teams just as they did last week.

Chourio is a prime example. He's shown large spikes in his whiff rate, while recording just a 23.5% hard-hit rate in September. That's after having averaged over 50% in the prior two months combined. The Brewers are yet again coming up to a break or change in the season, and you could understand that focus drifting toward the bright lights of October

Keeping that clubhouse focus is going to require the veterans to step up and lead by example, both in their performance and their preparation. Seeing Willy Adames, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins finding some form will go a long way to taking the stress off the younger players. It's also going to need that leadership from Murphy, whose role is to balance September and October while keeping the players fully focused on the here and now. He can't lead by example so intensely at this point, and it will be a challenge.

How the Brewers handle a tough stretch with the Giants, Diamondbacks and a key showdown with the Phillies will go a long way toward building some momentum as they enter the playoffs, and perhaps even allow them to force their way back into the first-round bye conversation. One thing’s for sure: sustaining and burnishing that focus on today’s game will be at the center of it all.

What do you think of the Brewers' recent stretch of offense? Can you see noticeable differences in their approach? And does it concern you as they come to the playoffs? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!