Nathaniel Lowe Trade Rumors: Rangers' Tuesday Moves Set Stage for Brewers to Swoop In

All winter, the indications have been that the Rangers would endeavor to stay below the first threshold of the competitive-balance tax in 2025. However, we also knew them to be on the prowl for a starting pitcher, and on Tuesday night, they got their man, re-signing Nathan Eovaldi to a three-year deal worth $75 million. They weren't done, though, turning and trading three prospects to the Marlins for slugging first baseman Jake Burger. Having fallen five days of service time shy of qualifying for arbitration as a Super Two player, Burger will make just over the league minimum in 2025, but with Eovaldi's hefty salary on board, the Rangers still figure to offload some money to balance themselves out. 

The most natural candidate to be that jetsam is Nathaniel Lowe, whom MLB Trade Rumors projected to earn $10.7 million via arbitration this winter. Lowe, 29, has two years of team control remaining and is a solidly above-average hitter, but he's likely to become a casualty of the budget for Texas. The Brewers are in perfect position to capitalize on that circumstance, one way or another.

As we know, the team has limited spending power this winter, and they're unlikely to want to add roughly $11 million to their current projected payroll. However, they still have Devin Williams hanging around, projected to make about $8 million in his own right. The Rangers, who stand to lose both Jose Leclerc and Kirby Yates to free agency this winter, are in the market for a new relief ace, and maybe the match is that simple: Williams to Texas, with Lowe as roughly half the return coming back. Surely, the Brewers wouldn't want to accept Lowe alone, since he plays a much more replaceable position and role and will be expensive to keep in 2026. They'd demand a second piece, likely a prospect at least as valuable as Lowe himself.

Should the Rangers balk at that, though, Milwaukee has also left themselves some options. Although we close observers (and beneficiaries of a little close reporting) know they can't take on Lowe's salary without making some other move to reduce payroll, the front office is superb at staying non-committal. They could make a trade that brings Lowe to the team without sending out Williams, then trade Williams later in the winter, posing in the meantime as a team ready to get a little more aggressive in the wake of two straight NL Central titles and playoff letdowns.

One more alternative occurs to me. Burger plays best as a first baseman, but he has ample experience at third. Could it be possible that the Rangers would play him there, and that his arrival therefore makes either Josh Smith or Josh Jung incrementally more available? Those young infielders would fill the Brewers' most glaring positional needs on the dirt even better than Lowe would, although their bats are a bit less reliable. Smith and Jung will each be 27 in 2025, and would round out an infield alongside Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang gorgeously. That version of a trade would be much more expensive, though, in terms of the talent and/or team control Matt Arnold and company would have to surrender.

No trade has to happen Wednesday; the end of the Winter Meetings is not a trade deadline. However, the timing seems auspicious. With the Rangers slightly bloated and the eventual replacement for Lowe on hand, it might be the moment to pounce.